花旗台湾科技会议2026最新动态：强劲需求与短缺

Taiwan PCB &Laminates What's New at Citi Taiwan Tech Conference 2026-strong demand andshortage Overall, EMC,TUCand Gold Circuit (GCE)areall positiveabout Al demand andmentionedtheircapacityexpansionpacecouldnotcatchupwithend-customers'demand.EMCandTUCmentionednewCCLcapacityrampwouldbelowerthannewPCBcapacityramp,resultinginCCLshortageandpotential pricehikesgoingforward.EMCandTUCwouldcontinuouslyraisethepricereflectingeitherinflationorpremiumbasedoncustomers'demand.GCEmentionedcurrentlycustomersallagreedwiththePCBpricehikeaswell.GCEnowseesm/sgainin its existingASICcustomerand seesgoodchancetosupportanothernewAsiCcustomerfrom4Q26onward.GCE'ssalescontributionfromThailandplantisguidedtogrowQoQfrom1Q26onward,supportingitsThailandplant'sprofitability.BelowarethekeytakeawaysatCitiTaiwanConference. Jack ChenAC+886-2-8726-9091 jack1.chen@citi.comLaura (Chia Yi) Chen +886-2-8726-9090laura.cy.chen@citi.com Nicholas Lai+886-2-8726-9093nicholas.lai@citi.com GCE GCE plans to add one greenfield plant each year in 2027, 2028, and 2029beinsufficienttofullymeetcustomers'demand. .In addition to expanding MLB capacity,GCE also intends to invest in HDIproductioncapacitytosupportfuturegrowthopportunities. ·ForitsexistingASICcustomer,GCEisseeingmarketsharegainin2026vs2025.Meanwhile,management believes the company has a high probability ofsecuringASiCmainboardforadditionalASiCcustomer. Thailand operations are expected to increase monthly revenue contributionfromapproximatelyNT$600mnin2Q26toNT$1.3bnin3Q26.Thefacilityiscurrently focused on general-purpose server products, with Al serverproductionscheduledtocommencein2H26.Managementexpectsprofitabilityatthe Thailandplanttoimprovegraduallyas utilizationramps. Regarding CCL supply,management believes supply can still be securedthroughpreviouslynegotiatedlong-termprocurementforecasts.However,rushorders placed outside of committed volumes are unlikely to be fulfilled giventightindustrysupplyconditions. EMCandTUC .BothEMCandTUCobservedthatCCLindustrycapacityadditionsremainbelowthepace of PCB industry expansion.As a result, both companies expect CCLsupplytightnesstopersist,supportingfurtherpricinghikes inCCL sector. EMC'sfuturecapacityexpansion will primarilybeconcentrated in China,wheremanagement believes capacity deployment is more efficient and customer Onglassfibersupply,EMCbelievesitisunlikelytobeaffectedbypotential Low-Dk2shortages,whereasTUCexpectsLow longerrepresentamajorbottleneckin2027.riskandbelievescopperfoilpricingremainsstable.implementingpriceadjustments.·EMC believes customers'adoption of PTFEmaterial remains at avery early evaluation stage and does not viewPTFEadoptionas adone deal atthispoint.·EMC is currently qualifying its ABF CCL for an ASIC project. Management indicated that the qualification results areunlikelytobeavailableuntilend-2026.actionstoremainalignedwithEMC'sstrategy..TUCremains constructiveonitsThailand expansionand continuestoobserveOOCdemandfromUS-basedcustomers.primarilyduetodelays inequipmentdeliveries. (2383.TW;NT$4885.0;1;05Jun26;13:30) Ourtarget priceforEMC is set atNT$5,100,based onatarget PEmultipleof 30xon our2027EEPS average.Webelieve our by itsleadingposition inCCLsupplyforAIGPUandASIC(highm/s)from2026Eonwards.Wealsobelievethecontinuedspecupgradefor CCL and price hikes should help support its margin expansion goingforward.At ourtarget price,the shares wouldtradeat22.9x/13.0x2026E/27EPB.Risks spec upgradefornext-genAlservers.Ingeneral,webelieve some investors initiallytendtohavehighhopeforaggressive specupgradewithout sufficiently consideringthescalability and cost structureof CCLproducts,which then leads to a shortfall inpotential among Al servers of differentgenerations.As such, we do notassign a high-risk rating. Keydownsiderisksthatcouldpreventthesharesfromreachingourtargetpriceinclude:1)aslower-than-expectedCCLupgradetrend;2)weaker-than-expected Al server demand; 3)productionbottlenecksin Al supplychain (eg,glass,copperfoil,foundryorOSAT);4)unexpectedsharelossinkeyAl serverprojects;and5)stricterpracticeofOOCpolicybyendcustomers. Gold Circuit Electronics(2368.TW; NT$1315.0;1;05Jun26;13:30) ValuationOurTPof NT$1,650for GCE is based on26x our2027EEPS estimate,which is higher than22x or +2std level of its1-year- forwardPEoverthepastthreeyears.Webelievethe25xmultipleisjustifiedbyGCE'shighAlserver/networkingsalesexposure,market sharegain inexistingASIC customerandnewAIASIC customerwinsfrom4Q26,whichdrives itsAI ASIC salesgrowthand margin profile.Recall that TSMC expects closeto a 5O%+CAGR in the nextfive yearsfor itsAl-relateddemand,whichisstronger than any otherapplications.Thus, we believe investors would be willing topay for high-growth Al names (especiallyASIC)withhighPEmultiples.Ourtargetpriceis equivalentto44x/26xour2026/27EEPSestimatesand16.1x/10.0xour2026/27EBVPS. Risks recovery;2)slowerramp-uppace of new serverplatform; 3)less-than-expected Al demand; 4)morePCBpeers added intoAl TUC (6274.TWO; NT$1610.0;1; 05