汇丰台湾会议2025要点：帕拉德科技（4966 TT）维持持有评级

Disclosures &DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Paradeattendedthe HSBCTaiwan Conferenceanddiscussedits business outlookIt continuesto focus onhigh-speedportfolio, andexpectsmorecontributionin 2026 and beyondReiterateHold andmaintainTPatTWD580, implying2%upsideWe hosted meetings forParade’s management team during the HSBCTaiwanConference 2025(19-20May2025);we share thekeytakeaways below.Near-termpull-inwith unclear 2H25visibility:Managementreiterated itsguidance,expecting2Q25revenueto be down 4% to up 6%q-o-q, below marketexpectationsof up 7%q-o-q.Management mentionedanearly pull-inofhigh speed productsduringthis quarter.Looking ahead,management noted that visibility for2H25remains limited due toongoing macro uncertainty.High-speed portfoliotodrive long-term growth:Paradecontinues toleadin USB4.2 which is underdevelopmentwith CPU vendors.Thecompany’s high speedproduct portfoliocontinuesto seemore opportunities outside of PCas Parade iscoworking with a major CSP on PCIe gen 5 & 6 solutions.TheacquisitionofSpectra7completedin 2Q25is expected to enhance Parade’s position inACC(active copper cables),strengthening itspresenceinthe AI server sectorandcreating longer-term synergies.Managementalsohighlighted that there’s a long-termplan to develop more customers in the ASIC area,while the meaningful contributionwouldlikelybe in 2027 and beyond.For its auto business, including USB box, ADASandinfotainment,Paradeis seeing more design wins withglobalcustomers.On theotherhand, the display product segment for general notebookscontinuesto faceintense price competition from Chinese vendors, while Parade is more focused onprovidingintegration solutions with better efficiency in power consumption.We thinkthe strategy could be positive in the long term whilemargin expansion driven bydiversification product mix in high-speed remains slow this year, though we seemorelonger-termopportunities.MaintainHoldand maintainTPatTWD580:Wemaintainour 2025/26e earnings.Our2025/26 EPS is 5% and 3% lower than consensus.Our 2025 GM of 42.8% is lowerthan consensus and our 2026 GM of 43.6% is higher than consensus of 43.4%.Wemaintainour target PE multipleat15x, applied to our 2025e EPS of TWD38.88,which is its 2016-18trading averagewhen the company’searningsweregrowing at19%,similarto our CAGRestimatefor2025-27 of 23%. OurTPremainsTWD580;thisimplies c2%upside. We maintainourHold rating; although high-speed interfaceproductsshould continueto grow in 2025and beyond, we continue to seea slowermargin recovery,capped by competitionindisplay solutions.Parade Technologies(4966 TT)Hold:HSBC Taiwan Conference 2025 key takeaways RegisterPREVIOUS TARGET(TWD)580.00UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+1.6%45,713Free float79%1,516BBG4966 TT11RIC4966.TWO12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027e31.9138.8846.6458.2131.9138.8846.6458.210.00.00.00.032.4737.9244.8752.8817.914.712.29.82.22.83.44.111.18.46.34.513.013.814.415.5390.00670.00950.0011/2405/25 ◆◆◆ 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eProfit & loss summary(TWDm)Revenue16,24617,94621,32825,432EBITDA3,1613,5924,3785,396Depreciation & amortisation-709-361-402-422Operating profit/EBIT2,4523,2313,9754,975Net interest349374957PBT2,8073,3684,0645,072HSBC PBT2,8073,3684,0645,072Taxation-215-285-366-456Net profit2,5923,0833,6984,615HSBC net profit2,5923,0833,6984,615Cash flow summary(TWDm)Cash flow from operations3,4614,4463,8084,686Capex-140-72-85-102Cash flow from investment418-882-1,215-1,455Dividends-1,018-1,265-1,542-1,849Change in net debt-2,044-5,069-2,639-3,285FCF equity3,3214,3743,7234,584Balance sheet summary(TWDm)Intangible fixed assets0000Tangible fixed assets348-465-782-1,102Current assets16,72321,03924,72529,266Cash & others10,53215,60118,24021,525Total assets26,20530,51735,01540,590Operating liabilities3,8434,1244,9245,884Gross debt0000Net debt-10,532-15,601-18,240-21,525Shareholders' funds20,74923,83227,53032,145Invested capital2,696848778755Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eY-o-y % changeRevenue18.010.518.819.2EBITDA19.313.621.923.3Operating profit24.531.823.125.1PBT26.120.020.724.8HSBC EPS27.321.820.024.8Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)6.110.126.233.2ROIC84.6166.9444.7590.3ROE13.013.814.415.5ROA10.510.911.312.2EBITDA margin19.520.020.521.2Operating profit margin15.118.018.619.6EBITDA/net interest (x)Net debt/equity-50.8-65.5-66.3-67.0Net debt/EBITDA (x)-3.3-4.3-4.2-4.0CF from operations/net debtPer share data(TWD)EPS Rep (diluted)31.9138.8846.6458.21HSBC EPS(diluted)31.9138.8846.6458.21DPS12.5315.9619.4423.32Book value255.44300.56347.21405.42Financials & valuation:Parade Technologies Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 20 May 2025 FinancialsExhibit1:Parade–HSBCestimatesand consensus comparison______HSBC estimates_____(TWDm)2025eSales17,946-y-o-y chg10.5%Gross profits7,689-GM42.8%Operatingprofits3,231-OPM18.0%Net income3,083EPS (TWD)38.88-y-o-y