中国能源转型与气候状况报告2026：从可再生能源规模化扩张到碳治理

From scaling renewablesto governing carbon Agora Energy China Foreword renewable energy consumption and regional systemintegration, while the energy transition is reshaping thegeography of employment. Dear readers, China’s energy transition has entered a new phase. Aftermore than a decade of rapid renewable energy growth andaccelerating electrification, the country is approaching acritical turning point. While emissions have yet to enter asustained decline, their growth has slowed significantly,suggesting that China is nearing a high-level structuralemission plateau. As the world’s largest energy consumer, carbon emitter andclean energy investor, China’s choices will continue to shapeglobal energy markets and climate outcomes. This reportprovides an evidence-based assessment of thesedevelopments and aims to support informed dialogueamong policymakers, researchers, businesses and otherstakeholders. We hope it serves as a useful resource andwelcome feedback to strengthen future editions. As China enters the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period(2026–2030), the focus is shifting from expanding cleanenergy capacity to transforming the energy system andstrengthening carbon-based governance. Greater emphasison carbon management, system flexibility and industrialdecarbonisationsignals a transition increasingly defined byimplementation and structural change. Meanwhile, AI-drivencomputing demand is emerging as a new driver of Kevin TuManaging DirectorAgora Energy China Markus SteigenbergerManaging DirectorAgora Think Tanks Table of contents Foreword2 456–78–15 Key findingsInternational implicationsAbout the data and emissions accountingChapter 1:Key developments and outlookChapter 2:10 key trendsTrends 1 to 3: Emissions16–19Trends 4 to 8: Industry and power20–26Trends 9 to 10: Emerging trends27–29Chapter 3:Special studiesStudy 1: Coal mine safety30–31Study 2: Energy security32–33 Key findings China’s emissions are approaching a structural plateau as power sectordecarbonisationconsolidates and industry becomes the nextcritical–and interdependent–frontier.Despite accounting-related uncertainty, the direction is clear: reported data shows a 0.5 percentrise in 2025, with carbon emissions shifting to chemicals, non-ferrous metals and other heavy industry. Electrification, renewable hydrogen,material circularity and low-carbon feedstocks are key pathways, but each requires adecarbonised, integrated grid as its foundation,alongside deep production system restructuring to link climate with industrial competitiveness and economic transformation goals.1 Energy security for China increasingly depends on system integration rather than fuel supply alone.Despite rapid renewable energydeployment, oil import dependenceremains over 70percent, and coal-to-chemicals investment continues to reflect security concerns.Meanwhile, electric vehicles, datacentresand electrification are driving new demand, making storage, demand response, flexible charging,transmission and market reform critical to converting clean power growth into economy-wide fossil fuel displacement.2 The governance shift from scaling renewables toprioritisingemission reductions opens a key window to close the gap between installedcapacity and verified emission outcomes.The 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2026–2030) is expected to accelerate the move towards carbon-based policy frameworks with stronger provincial accountability, emission-focused assessments and improved carbon accounting.Realisingthis opportunity requires matching renewables deployment with the regulatory architecture to lock in durable emission cuts and fasterdecoupling of economic growth from carbon-intensive drivers.3 Having set the global pace of electrification, China is increasingly shaping the next phase of industrial transformation.The 15th FYP isexpected to accelerate electrification across industrial supply chains while supporting emerging sectors such as green steel,renewablehydrogen and other low-carbon industrial products. The success of these efforts could define global cost curves, technology standards andinfrastructure requirements, highlighting the importance of innovation, deployment and international cooperation in advancingindustrialdecarbonisation.4 What China’s energy transition means for the world →Climate action is increasingly an industrial growth strategy:China’s clean-tech supply chains in EVs, batteries, solar and wind showhow climate objectives can drive competitiveness, jobs and new growth, a model increasingly relevant as countries seek to balancedecarbonisation, energy security and economic development. →China’s scale offers lessons for system integration:Experience in grid expansion, UHV transmission and storage deployment offersinsights for economies integrating high shares of renewables. AI-driven datacentredemand is emerging as a new consumption driver,with the co-location of computing infrastructure and renewable hubs pointing to new models of demand-side int