Soitec F1Q预览：光子学上行空间已定价；目标价下调

F1Q preview:Photonics upside priced in;Lower PO Reiterate Rating:NEUTRAL| PO:138.00 EUR| Price:118.40 EUR 07July 2026 Photonics growing but expectations are elevated; NeutralSoitec reports F1Q revenue on July 28th. We believe there is downside risk to css estimates for both Mobile, given the weak smartphone market, and Edge AI, given thehigh implied Photonics-SOI growth. However, we expect the overall business to recoverfrom its FY26 earnings trough. We raise FY27-29E Edge AI but lower Mobile and Auto/Industrial ests, lowering EBITDA. Reit. Neutral with lower€138 PO (was€193) onupdated SOTP valuation. Equity Street is projecting Photonics-SOI growing above industryWe view Soitec’s Photonics-related upside as priced in, with Edge and Cloud AI (of which Photonics-SOI was 42% in FY26) forecasted to grow by css at 28%/34%/43% inFY27/28/29E. This would imply Photonics revenue growth significantly higher than the50% CAGR for FY26-29E that we model, which is based on Photonics-SOI total die areaCAGR forecasts. For context, our global team projects 40%+ total optical revenuegrowth CAGR in data centers. Given various uncertainties including amount of NPO/CPOcontent growth, we lack conviction in further Photonics revenue revisions. Oliver Wong>>Research AnalystMLI (UK)+44 20 7995 9014oliver.wong2@bofa.com Uncertainties remain on Photonics growth assumptions With questions on various Photonics-SOI content assumptions hard to answer, it isdifficult to project its revenue growth CAGR. Yields, transceiver speeds, changing opticalengine requirements PIC sizes, NPO/CPO ramp timelines and associated content growthall present various headwinds and tailwinds to Photonics-SOI growth. We believe theimplied css Photonics-SOI growth rate already prices in growth acceleration fromNPO/CPO which we view to still be uncertain given the different moving parts. Finally,GlobalWafers’planned ramp in Photonics/RF-SOI has not been derisked, introducingquestions on Soitec’s market share position going forward. Didier Scemama>>Research AnalystMLI (UK)+44 20 7995 6751didier.scemama@bofa.com Amelia Banks>>Research AnalystMLI (UK)+44 20 7995 3554amelia.banks@bofa.com Mobile recovering but at slow pace on phone price hikesMobile was more than half of FY26 revenue, and given announced price hikes by Stock Data smartphone-makers, we believe there is downside to css FY27E decline of 6% in Mobilerevenue (we model 11% decline). RF-SOI revenue continues to be significantly impactedby elevated customer inventories, sitting at ~2mm wafers with a slowing pace ofdigestion due to the weak end-market. We model 19%/27% growth in Mobile inFY28/29E, reflecting gradual customer inventory digestion. Price118.40 EURPrice Objective138.00 EURDate Established07-Jul-2026Investment OpinionC-2-952-Week Range22.62 EUR-200.50 EURMrkt Val / Shares Out (mn)4,224 EUR / 35.7Average Daily Value (mn)64.76 USDFree Float69.5%BofA Ticker / ExchangeSLOIF / ENPBloomberg / ReutersSOI FP / SOIT.PAROE (2027E)-0.4%Net Dbt to Eqty (Mar2026A)4.4% AI: Artificial intelligenceCPO: Co-packaged opticsNPO: Near packaged opticsPIC: Photonic integrated circuitRF: Radio frequencySOI: Silicon on insulatorSOTP: Sum of the partscss: consensus >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors shouldconsider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 8 to 10. Analyst Certification on page 6. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 6.12990967 iQprofileSMSoitec Company SectorSemiconductors Company Description Soitec designs andmanufactures semiconductorsubstrates, predominantly based on silicon on insulator(SOI) technologies. Soitec has recently been diversifyinginto technologies such as POI, SiC and GaN. Soitec'sproducts are key enablers and beneficiaries of many fastgrowing trends such as 5G communications, vehicleelectrification, silicon photonics, 3D sensing and increasingdemand for low power/cost processing power. Soitec islisted on Euronext Paris and is headquartered in Bernin,France. Investment Rationale Soitecis a leader in silicon on insulator (SOI) substrates.Recently, Soitec has moved into new areas, such as galliumnitride (GaN) & piezoelectric on insulator (POI), with siliconcarbide (SiC) in development. Soitec's products are keyenablers & beneficiaries of many fast-growing trends, suchas optical connectivity and 5G communications. However,we still lack visibility on when customer inventory digestionwill end and tariff overhang on consumer