Soitec：以光子学为主导的复苏路径正在形成 - FY26后模型更新

Soitec: Photonics-led recovery path is taking shape - Post-FY26model refresh Soitec’s Photonics-led recovery is accelerating, reinforcing our constructive stance on theshares. This report refreshes our post-FY26 model, including a material overhaul of ourproprietary LightCounting-based Photonics-DCI framework. For a full Photonics primeroutlining Soitec’s strong prospects in the area, refer to our recent “Light Fantastic” report. Close Date8 Jun 2026SOI.FP Close Price (EUR)156.45Price Target (EUR)180.00Upside/(Downside)15%52-Week Range200.50/22.62EDME1,542.17FYEMarDiv YieldNAMarket Cap (EUR) (M)5,597EV (EUR) (M)5,652 A structural upgrade in Photonics-SOI growth is now evident.Management has revisedits medium-term Photonics-SOI growth framing from 20–30% CAGR to “above 30%,”reflecting a sharp demand acceleration since March 2026. Our updated model, incorporatingthe April 2026 LightCounting dataset, points to ~37% Photonics revenue CAGR over FY26–31. This reinforces the view that Soitec is leveraged to a multi-year structural demand cycle,specifically tied to AI-driven datacenter connectivity. Demand strength is creating near-term supply constraints, confirming the inflection.Management has explicitly acknowledged tight supply in Photonics-SOI and is activelyredeploying capacity. Crucially, scaling can be achieved largely through repurposing existingunderutilised assets (~50% utilisation in FY26), limiting incremental capex (~€100m in FY27).This supports our thesis of capital-light growth with strong operational flexibility. Operating leverage underpins the recovery trajectory.Management disclosed that ~70%of costs are variable and that incremental revenue carries ~60% contribution margin in thenear term, normalising to ~50% through the cycle. Combined with a clear three-stage roadmap(FCF restoration achieved FY26, return to growth underway in FY27, and finally marginexpansion), Soitec’s visibility on recovery is clearly improving. New leadership focuses on improved execution.Soitec’s incoming CEO Laurent Rémont’spriorities include portfolio review, headcount reduction, and protected R&D spend, all pointingto sharper resource allocation towards growth platforms. Investment Implications We rate Soitec Outperform, with a PT hiked to €180 (+20%, reflecting our top-line and marginestimate upgrades; a 10bp WACC hike is offset by our 3m DCF model roll-forward). VALUATION COMPS TABLE DETAILS SOITEC MODEL AND RECENT RELEVANT RESEARCH Company Model | SOI.FP / SOITEC 8 Jun 2026 - Global Semis: April 2026 WSTS Tracker - Sales -2.2% MoM, above typical (-11.3% MoM) & +106.4% YoY onsignificant memory strength4 Jun 2026 - China Smartphone Tracker (April): Pressure spreading to mid-end & price hikes facing resistance28 May 2026 - Auto Semis Cycle Tracker 1Q26: Price hikes underway as demand recovers27 May 2026 - Soitec: FY26 nicely ahead with a strong FCF beat - Photonics-SOI crosses $100m9 May 2026 - Artificial Intelligence: Inside the War for AI Data Center Connectivity5 May 2026 - Soitec: The Light Fantastic - Photonics-DCI Opportunity13 Mar 2026 - Bernstein's Global Data Center Model: 50,000 Words' Worth of Pictures4 Mar 2026 - U.S. Communications Infrastructure: Built Cool, Running Hot - Initiating Coverage17 Feb 2026 - When AI threatens the moat #3 - The next shoes to drop13 Feb 2026 - When AI threatens the moat #2: Our selection of "AI risk-proof" long ideas11 Feb 2026 - When AI threatens the moat: displacement risk and European SMID portfolio positioning6 Feb 2026 - Soitec: A well-deserved relief rally after a strong 3Q - but the road to full recovery remains long and arduous SOITEC FY26 POST-RESULTS ANALYST MEETING - KEY TAKEAWAYS Soitec’s FY26 results analyst meeting held in Paris on 28 May 2026 was the first public platform for Laurent Rémont, who assumedthe CEO role on 1 April 2026, giving him an opportunity to lay out his reading of Soitec's strategic position and the priorities heis setting for the company. In that sense, we would qualify the event as a “mini-CMD”: the prepared presentations carried a number of genuinely newincremental data points that did not feature in Soitec’s results press release of 27 May, and the Q&A surfaced importantmanagement colour on Photonics-SOI momentum, RF-SOI inventory dynamics, operating leverage and competitive positioning.This section reviews what was new, how it tallies with our published views, and what the key Q&A signals imply for the investmentcase. PHOTONICS-SOI DEMAND HAS RE-ACCELERATED SHARPLY, PROMPTING MANAGEMENT TO UPGRADE ITS CAGRFRAMING The single most important incremental datapoint from the analyst meeting was management's explicit upgrade of the medium-term Photonics-SOI growth framing. In prepared remarks, CEO Rémont stated that Soitec has been "witnessing a very sharpacceleration of demand, especially since March 2026" and, crucially, revised the growth characterisation upward: "we said 20% to30% CAGR - we see something above 30% now." Thi