美国数字广告 消费者AI初现雏形——第二季度预览

Consumer AI Starting to TakeShape - 2Q Preview We like GOOGL, META and PINS into the print. We expect asolid quarter from the digital advertising group in 2Q, withkey revenue growth rates broadly in line to above the Street.Trends should slow through '26 but already factored intoconsensus expectations. U.S. InternetPOSITIVE U.S. Internet Ross Sandler+1 415 263 4470ross.sandler@barclays.comBCI, US Alex Hughes+1 212 526 3069alexander.hughes@barclays.comBCI, US The Key Takeaway:Stock prices across the digital advertising sector have been reacting moreto AI trends and winner/loser baskets of late, rather than core financial results. GOOGL isbenefiting mostly from GCP growth (and in 2Q likely the TPUaaS business) rather than Searchrevenue growth rates. META remains in the sentiment doghouse, and we think the companycould surprise on AI in 2H (both models and products) while ad revenue growth should remainsteady. PINS is likely to get things back on track in 2Q (see below) and arguably has the bestsetup in the group heading into late '26 as core ads start to outperform. SNAP has been volatilearound the Specs launch, but its ad business seems to be improving a bit in 2Q. This is allplaying out as consumer AI seems on the verge of its next major push since ChatGPT's originaldebut. Native AI advertising remains nascent and isn't likely to have an impact on the group in2Q. In summary, the backdrop remains broadly constructive for digital advertising: 1) fearsaround AI disruption risk seem a bit overblown, and 2) most names are currently trading at adiscount to the S&P 500. Michael DiSanto+1 212 526 1054michael.disanto@barclays.comBCI, US Owen Clendenin+1 212 526 7518owen.clendenin@barclays.comBCI, US Alexander Kessinger+1 212 526 1324alexander.kessinger@barclays.comBCI, US Most Ad Categories Tracking Solidly in 2Q:Retail represents upwards of 20-25% of ad spendfor larger walled gardens, and up to 85%+ for companies like Pinterest. With the combination oflate-quarter promotions falling in 2Q this year (Prime Day, etc.) and sometariffrefunds comingthrough to various brands and retailers being redeployed into customer acquisition, we thinktrends were broadly stable. Travel seemed to have picked up a bit as Middle East tensions easedandone-offevents like World Cup helped demand. AI-native apps are being created andlaunched at a rapid pace, andoftencome with heavy direct response ad buys to increaseawareness. Lastly, prediction market apps have hit product market fit in 2026 and seem to beleaning into digital marketing, which could result in billions of ad dollars for the largestecosystems. Consumer AI on the Verge of Its Agentic Moment - SiriAI Could Restart the Consumer Race The Siri AI debut at WWDC looked impressive from the standpoint of being the first "safe andnormie" consumer AI app that defaults connectors across Apple's suite of O+O applications into Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 5.Completed: 06-Jul-26, 21:17 GMTReleased: 07-Jul-26, 04:10 GMTRestricted - External the service for personalization. Gemini and ChatGPT have developer SDKs and plug-ins, but ona consumer opt-in basis they aren't in the same trusted position as Apple, nor do they sit at theOS/device levels. This kind of personalized service with connectors is likely to be what will pushthe consumer AI space into its next stage, much like how ChatGPT's original debut triggeredchatbot adoption.Oftena precursor to the West, we are seeing this trend already happening inChina – WeChat is integrating its 4m mini-programs into its AI service, allowing consumers totake action, not just chat. Apple went further out of its way to showoffhow the orchestration and routing layers of theirnew AI stack are largely built in-house (in some cases distilled from Gemini) and are not sendingqueries to other AI models, outside of a few complex tasks. This release was impressive in ourview from the standpoint of abstracting away some of the complicated set-up steps forpersonalized consumer AI, allowing the user to take action, not just chat, and giving Applemuch more control of the user interaction layer on the iPhone. Like WeChat, Apple is attempting to control most of the transactions between the user andthird-party applications like DoorDash and Instacart via the App Intent API. In 2Q, ByteDanceintroduced paid tiers to its popular consumer AI service Doubao ranging from $10-$70 permonth, comparable to ChatGPT (~5% payers), so we are likely to see other examples ofconsumer agent business models take form. All of this is to say that if Siri AI gains tractionafte