2022年煤炭行业回顾：阻力与争论

Glencore PLC (GLEN.L) '22 redux for coal: Pushbacks and Debates GLEN'ssharepriceisdown10%MTD,butthespotpricesforitscommoditymix are up 4%.Most of thefeedback from our note highlighting upside in thecoalprice and GLEN'sleveragetothat is onthe impactof lowergas prices(duetoeasing of Middle East tensions) on the thermal coal price and newsflow(SXCoal,3rdJune2026)ontherestartofcoal productioninChinafrommineswherecoal production had been suspended.We think the impact of arguablystructurallylowerexportsofthermalcoalfromIndonesia,thepotential impactof lower Iranian steel production on coking coal,El Nino's possible impactlastinginto27andthefallingIndianIPPinventoryonthermalcoal prices isallunderappreciated inourview.Details inthenote. Price(25Jun2612:34) down10%MTD,but copperprices arerelativelyflat.Newcastlecoal price isup10%,RichardsBaycoal priceisdown3%andcokingcoalpriceisup5%Keyaspectsdebatedandourview-a)Impactoflowergaspricesoncoal:After going up 80% since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, LNG prices havepulledback18%on15-1gthof Juneandhavestabilized at levels>50%abovepre-conflict levels.Coal prices had gone up only15-25% since the beginning of theconflict and have not correctedmateriallysince.Ifcurrentgas prices hold then thereshouldstill be significant upsidetothermalcoal,webelieve.b)Chinacoalminesrestart:According to the aforementioned news report,c.60% of coal productionthat was suspended after the mine accident last month has restarted. That stillmeans that 40% remains suspended and while Chinese coking coal futures havecorrectedsincethe newscame out,itis still c.12%abovethelevelthe daybefore theaccidentwhileseabornecoalpricesareuponly5%.Lessdebatedaspects-a)Indonesian coal exportsaredown10%y/yYTDand production could be down >10% y/y (with more of the output diverted to domesticconsumptionduetodomesticblackoutsleavingevenlessforexports)andtheformationof DSl potentially makes coal exports less attractive in the future b)Iranian steelproductionisdown>30%y/yaccordingtoWSAoverthelastthreemonths-potentiallyreducing steel exports and higher demand for coking coal elsewhere c) indian Ippinventories arefallingat>2daysofusepermonthandwillikelygobelowaverageby Julyandbelowthe10days ofuselevel by end Augustd)Fair pushbackthat thefullpotentialimpactofa'super El-Nino'willbefelt on thecoal marketonlyby'27. Ephrem RaviAC+44-20-7986-2462ephrem.ravi@citi.com Krishan M Agarwal+44-020-7986-4092krishan.agarwal@citi.com ljeoma lhuegbujeoma.ihuegbu@citi.comShashiShekhar, CFAOmnath Sinh wheredoesthatleaveyourviewoncoal-gasswitching?Australianbenchmarkthermalcoalpriceisup25%sincethestartoftheMiddle EastconflictwhiletheSouthAfricanbenchmarkisup14%.BycontrastLNGpricesareup52%sincethebeginningoftheconflictevenaftertherecentpullback price(efficiencyadjusted).Evenifthatdiscountpersists,webelievecoalpricesshouldmoveupbythesame%asgaspricesifthehistoriccorrelationsholdandhencethe underwhelming move in coal prices couldchangeifgasprice sustains Source:Citi Research,Bloomberg 2)AnyevidencethatIran'ssteeloutputisactuallydeclining(andthattheywouldimportcoking coal)? Steelproductionoverthelast3months(May'26)isdown>30%y/yaccordingtoWorldsteeldata.Whileweacknowledgethatthisdataispotentiallysubjecttosubstantial revision (both up and down), it could be indicative ofthe magnitude ofthechangesin steel productionthere. Weremainoftheviewthatthedamagetolran'ssteelproductionwillhavesubstantiallong-termimpactsonthecokingcoalmarket. Iranwasthe1Othlargeststeelproducerandthe5thlargeststeelexporterintheworld. Iran is also unique amongst thelarge steel producing countries of the worldinthatmostofitsironismadeusingtheDRl route,withgasasthemainenergysource.If70%ofsteelcapacityinlranhasindeedbeendestroyed(Euronews,3rdApril2026)attheminimumwethinkthismeansthe15mntonnessteelthatIranusedtotypicallyexportwill havetobeservicedfromelsewhere-andthatleadsto8mntonnesofincrementalcokingcoaldemand(potentiallyupto2OmntonnesifalotofIraniandomesticdemandwillneedtobeservicedbyimportsforthenextfewyears until the steel capacity is rebuilt-which we believe is material in the contextofaseabornecokingmarketofjustover3oOmntonnes). 3)Isn'tcokingcoalproductioncomingbackupinChina? IntheimmediateaftermathofthetragicaccidentinShanxi,over15OminesinChinasuspendedproduction.Around6o%ofthemhaveresumedproductionaftersafetychecks and the China coking coal futures prices have come down by around 13%fromthepeakafterhavinggoneuparound24%sincetheaccident Wenotethatseabornecokingcoalpricesareuponlyaround5%sodespitethepullbackinChinesecokingcoalpriceshaslagged. Whileitistooearlytohaveadefinitelyquantifythevolumeimpact,morethanathirdoftheminesthatwas suspended aftertheaccidentoveramonth ago remainsuspended. Our current expectations are for Chinese coking coal production at460mntonnesfor26E(vs479mntonneslastyear)-implyingaround25mntonnesofannualizedproductionlossesfromlastyear. AlthoughpricerealizationofcokingcoalexportstoChinacouldbelessthanthatintoothermajorseab