2026实地需求监测系列第80期：铝库存与消费

China Materials 2026 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #80 – Aluminum Inventoryand Consumption CITI’S TAKEIn this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency on- ground demand trends in China. In this note, we enclose weekly data fromMysteel, a consultant, on China aluminum ingot and billet production,inventory, and apparent consumption data during the week of 25thJun to1stJul 2026. Latest sector pecking order: Lithium > Gold > Copper >Aluminum > Battery > Coal > Steel > Cement. Jack Shang, CFAAC+852-2501-2441jack.shang@citi.com Anna Wang+852-2501-2739anna.d.wang@citi.com Production –According to Mysteel, from 25th Jun to 1st Jul 2026, China totalaluminum production was 870kt, flat WoW, +3% YoY, and +3% YoY on the lunarcalendar, and aluminum billet production was 348kt, +2% WoW, flat YoY and -2%YoY on the lunar calendar. The calendar year YTD China aluminum production was23.3mnt, +3.0% YoY, and aluminum billet production was 8.8mnt, -3.5% YoY. Jimmy Feng+852-2501-7588jimmy.feng@citi.com Cynthia Wu+852-2868-7813cynthia.d.wu@citi.com Inventory –According to Mysteel, China aluminum ingot + billet total inventory stoodat 1,407kt on 2ndJul, -6% WoW, +82% YoY, and +96% YoY on lunar calendar, of whichtotal social/producers’ inventory stood at 1,255/152kt, -7%/-1% WoW, +100%/+6%YoY, and +110%/+33% YoY on lunar calendar. For aluminum ingot, total inventorywas 1,181kt on 2ndJul, -6% WoW, +128% YoY, and +133% YoY on lunar calendar. Foraluminum billet, total inventory was 226kt on 2ndJul, -7% WoW, -12% YoY, and +7%YoY on the lunar calendar. Apparent consumption –Based on our calculations, during the week 25thJun to 1stJul 2026, China overall aluminum apparent consumption was 989kt, +5% WoW,+17% YoY, and +8% YoY on lunar calendar. China aluminum ingot/billet apparentconsumption was 995kt/342kt, respectively, +4%/+4% WoW, +13%/+8% YoY, and+7%/-3% YoY on lunar calendar. The calendar year YTD China overall aluminumapparent consumption was 23.6mnt, +0.9% YoY, and China aluminum ingot/billetapparent consumption was +0.9%/-3.5% YoY. Takeaways –We believe the aluminum ingot + billet inventory data is morerepresentative to calculate overall aluminum demand as it includes the change inmore types of aluminum inventory. During the week 25thJun to 1stJul 2026, totalaluminum inventory decreased WoW. The inventory level was higher than same period in 2021-25 on the lunar calendar. Total aluminum apparent consumption during the week was increased WoW and theapparent consumption level is higher than the same period in 2022-25 on the lunar calendar. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. Note: In x-axis, CNY stands for Chinese New Year and the data is byweeks Note: In x-axis, CNY stands for Chinese New Year and the data is byweeks Source: Citi Research, mysteel Source: Citi Research, mysteel Source: Citi Research, mysteel If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the detailsof the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside theUS +1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designatedby “AC” in the author block or (ii) listed in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. If multiple ACanalysts are designated in the author block, each analyst is certifying with respect to the entire research report other than(a) content attributable to another AC certifying analyst listed in bold alongside the content and (b) views expressed solelywith respect to a specific issuer which are attributable to another AC certifying analyst identified in the price charts orrating history tables for that issuer shown below. Each of these analysts certify, with respect to the sections of the reportfor which they are responsible: (1) that the views expressed therein accurately reflect their personal views about eachissuer and security referenced and were prepared in an independent manner, including with respect to Citigroup GlobalMarkets Inc. and its affiliates; and (2) no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly orindirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in this report. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Analysts’ compensation is determined by Citi Research management and Citigroup’s senior management and is based uponactivities and services intended to benefit the investor clients of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and its affiliates (the “Firm”).Compensation is not linked to specific transactions or recommendations. Like all Firm employees, analysts receivecompensation that is impacted by overall Firm profitability which includes investment banking, sales and trading, andprincipal trading revenues. One factor