中国材料2026年地面需求监测系列第68期：铝库存与消费

China Materials 2026 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #68 – Aluminum Inventoryand Consumption CITI’S TAKEIn this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency on- ground demand trends in China. In this note, we enclose weekly data fromMysteel, a consultant, on China aluminum ingot and billet production, Jack Shang, CFAAC+852-2501-2441jack.shang@citi.com 3rdJun 2026. Latest Sector pecking order: Copper > Aluminum > Lithium >LFP cathode > Battery > Gold > Coal > Steel > Cement. Anna Wang+852-2501-2739anna.d.wang@citi.com Production –According to Mysteel, from 28thMay to 3rdJun 2026, China totalaluminum production was 869kt, flat WoW, +3% YoY, and +3% YoY on the lunar calendar, and aluminum billet production was 336kt, flat WoW, -6% YoY and -4% Jimmy Feng+852-2501-7588jimmy.feng@citi.com YoY on the lunar calendar. The calendar year YTD China aluminum production was19.8mnt, +3.0% YoY, and aluminum billet production was 7.4mnt, -3.3% YoY. Cynthia Wu+852-2868-7813cynthia.d.wu@citi.com Inventory –According to Mysteel, China aluminum ingot + billet total inventory stoodat 1,717kt on 4thJun, -3% WoW, +123% YoY, and +97% YoY on lunar calendar, of which totalsocial/producers’inventory stood at 1,544/173kt,-3%/-5%WoW,+156%/+48% YoY, and +121%/+29% YoY on lunar calendar. For aluminum ingot,total inventory was 1,434kt on 4thJun, -2% WoW, +160% YoY, and +122% YoY onlunar calendar. For aluminum billet, total inventory was 283kt on 4thJun, -10% WoW,+30% YoY, and +25% YoY on lunar calendar. Apparent consumption –Based on our calculations, during the week 28thMay to 3Jun 2026, China overall aluminum apparent consumption was 950kt, +1% WoW, +10% YoY, and flat YoY on lunar calendar. China aluminum ingot/billet apparent consumption was 937kt/348kt, respectively, +1%/-1% WoW, +5%/+6% YoY, andflat/-6% YoY on lunar calendar. The calendar year YTD China overall aluminumapparent consumption was 19.8mnt, -0.7% YoY, and China aluminum ingot/billetapparent consumption was -0.5%/-4.3% YoY. Takeaways –We believe the aluminum ingot + billet inventory data is morerepresentative to calculate overall aluminum demand as it includes the change inmore types of aluminum inventory. During the week 28thMay to 3rdJun 2026, totalaluminum inventory decreased WoW. The inventory level was higher than same See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations period in 2021-25 on lunar calendar. Total aluminum apparent consumption during the week increased WoW and the apparentconsumption level is higher than the same period in 2022-24, but lower than 2025 on lunar calendar. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Note: In x-axis, CNY stands for Chinese New Year and the data is byweeks © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Note: In x-axis, CNY stands for Chinese New Year and the data is byweeks Source: Citi Research, mysteel Source: Citi Research, mysteel Source: Citi Research, mysteel Source: Citi Research, mysteel © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Note: In x-axis, CNY stands for Chinese New Year and the data is byweeks Source: Citi Research, mysteel If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the detailsof the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONThe research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designated by “AC” in the author block or (ii) listed in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. If multiple ACanalysts are designated in the author block, each analyst is certifying with respect to the entire research report other than(a) content attributable to another AC certifying analyst listed in bold alongside the content and (b) views expressed solelywith respect to a specific issuer which are attributable to another AC certifying analyst identified in the price charts orrating history tables for that issuer shown below. Each of these analysts certify, with respect to the sections of the report IMPORTANT DISCLOSURESAnalysts’ compensation is determined by Citi Research management and Citigroup’s senior management and is based upon activities and services intended to benefit the investor clients of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and its affiliates (the “Firm”).Compensation is not linked to specific transactions or recommendations. Like all Firm employees, analysts receivecompensation that is impacted by overall Firm profitability which includes investment banking, sales and trading, and For financial instruments recommended in the Product in which the Firm is not a market maker, the Firm is a liquidity providerin such financial instruments (and any underlying instruments) and may act as principal in connection with transactions insu