Alnylam制药Amvuttra周度追踪：季度最后一周环比增长8.7%

USA | BiotechnologyAlnylam Pharma Equity ResearchJuly 6, 2026 The Amvuttra Weekly Tracker: Last Wk of Qtr,+8.7% W/W, Tracking to Beat Amvuttra weekly sales $65.8M for June 20-26, +8.7% W/W (or +12.8% W/W decline if we holiday-adj base for Juneteenth wk). 2Q avg $62.8M/wk is+14.5% above 1Q avg $54.8M/wk (+14.5%). Applying 94% capture rate from 1Q,Amvuttra beats US consensus by 5%. See capture rate sensitivity below, whichshows single-digit % beat on 2Q US Amvuttra cons against a range of scenarios.Current Amvuttra cons $827M US / $1,049M WW. Notes on quarterly phasing, pricing/GTN, inventory: •We spoke to ALNY IR last week, and they noted quarterly phasing should be stable now that1Q insurance re-auth and lower shipping week # is passed•On pricing, IR noted the mid-single-digit % decline in net price occurs gradually over the year>> we note this could bump IQVIA capture % higher if IQVIA uses a higher price in their calcs•On inventory, IR noted slight fluctuations are expected but implied this is meaningful >> wenote 2wks of 2Q inventory is $16M more than 2wks of 1Q inventory (+2% vs IQVIA qtrly total) Faisal Khurshid * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 707-6341 | fkhurshid@jefferies.com Inanc Caner * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 323-7674 | icaner@jefferies.com Gabrielle Weiner * | Equity Associate+1 (917) 344-1881 | gweiner@jefferies.com We also took a look at Symphony TRx and monthly sales data (integrated WAC). Symphony salesdata points to a lower est (~$800M US rev, -3% vs cons) than IQVIA WSP. However, we note thelarge discrepancy b/w m/m TRx growth (>30%) and int. WAC sales (flattish) seen in May data,complicating projections. Symphony also uses WAC price whereas IQVIA WSP accounts for some(but not all) discounts.Note that June Symphony data will be released this Friday, 7/10. Note: Favorable inventory impacts leads to a lower IQVIA capture >> sales into inventory arecaptured in company revs (which is based on shipment into distributor) but not IQVIA (which isbased on shipment from distributor to pharmacy/site). Note: Ex-US revenue is becoming an increasingly important part of the WW Amvuttra picture as ex-US launches progress... these revenues arenotcaptured by IQVIA WSP hence are harder to predict. Note: IQVIA has a low capture rate for both drugs, but the directional trends may be worthconsidering, though we flag Memorial Day (5/29/2026) and Juneteenth (6/19/2026) which skewedTRx data. The Long View: Alnylam Pharma Investment Thesis We think ALNY’s near-term TTR setup is good enough, but the call forstock outperformance is tough. Our differentiated view is based on our TTRsurvey and pipeline analysis. The FY26 TTR guide looks achievable, whichlowers downside risk, but longer-term cons expectations seem demanding.We are below consensus on peak TTR because we think the Street stillunderweights competition, overweights TAM expansion, and is overlookingnucresiran timing risk and crowding risk. Outside TTR, zilebesiran is likely real,but we see this as a smaller product than the Street. The wholly-owned pipelineshots look more interesting than thesis-changing. Downside Scenario,$260, -17% Upside Scenario,$440, +41% Base Case,$330, +6% •Total peak revs $16.5B unadj/adj (i.e., 100%POS)•TTR franchise peak revs $13.5B unadj/adj (i.e.,100% POS)•10% DR, 1% TGR: Base case WACC w/ higherterminal value•DCF PT $440 •Total peak revs $15.2B unadj, $13.6B adj•TTR franchise peak revs $11.7B unadj, $10.6Badj•10% DR, 0% TGR: Base case WACC and terminalvalue•DCF PT $330 •Total peak revs $13.0B unadj, $11.5B adj•TTR franchise peak revs $10.2B unadj, $8.8B adj•10% DR, (1%) TGR: Higher WACC and lowerterminal value•DCF PT $260 Sustainability Matters Catalysts Top material issues:(1) Access: given the co aims to develop and commercialize novel therapeutics,broad global access to these medicines is key. (2) Clinical trial representation: given the co executesclinical development, ensuring trials are representative of the intended patient population is key. Quarterly: Amvuttra sales 2H26 pipeline catalysts: ALN-6400 (PLG) Ph2bleedingdata,ALN-HTT02(HTT)Ph1-2 data,ALN-2232 (ALK7) Ph1 obesity data Company targets:The co aims to secure environmental certifications, improve health equity, foster aninclusive workplace, and target renewable energy goals at manufacturing sites. Competitive landscape:AZN / IONS eplontersenATTR-CM Ph3 data Qs to mgmt:(1) What efforts are you making to expand global access to novel therapies? (2) Are youengaging with patient advocacy groups in the disease areas you operate in? Partners:REGN C5 MG regulatory progress andPNH Ph3 data Company Description Alnylam Pharma Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company and the pioneer of RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutics, a class ofmedicines designed to silence disease-causing genes. The company markets multiple RNAi medicines (notably Amvuttra in transthyretin amyloidosis)and is advancing a broad pipeline ac