周一矿业速递：市场定价反映大型多元化矿企面临较低商品价格

Market pricing in lower commodity prices for big diversified miners CITI'S TAKE Ephrem RaviAC+44-20-7986-2462ephrem.ravi@citi.com MUSINGS –The market is currently pricing in lower commodity prices forthe big, diversified miners. For example, we estimate both BHP and RIO arenow pricing in -10% and -8% lower commodity prices whereas GLENcontinues to price in significantly lower commodity prices (-45% on ourestimates, reflecting ESG concerns). Shashi Shekhar, CFA+91-22-4277-5028shashi.shekhar@citi.com Krishan M Agarwal+44-020-7986-4092krishan.agarwal@citi.com In our view, the market is likely concerned about the possibility of rate hikesfollowing the Fed meeting last month (FOMC – Hawkish shift as 9 of 18 want to hike).This resulted in big, diversified miners’ share price declining by -9% to -12% sincemid-Jun (MSCI world mining index down by -10%) despite only a marginal decline incommodity prices (iron ore -1%, copper -3%, zinc -2%). It seems market is expectingcommodity prices to decline further and hence not pricing in duration into earnings. MINERS—We upgraded Ma’aden to Buy (Production ramp resumption providescompelling recovery opportunity) a couple of weeks ago. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on rising phosphate demand via its Phosphate 3 expansion,a tightening aluminum market, and a bullish gold price environment. Debates havebeen around a) Valuation: While the stock trades at a premium to peers, we believeits superior 19% EPS CAGR justifies it, and it remains attractive versus its ownhistory. B) Near-term volume risks: from SoH disruptions are abating, prompting usto raise 2Q-3Q'26 estimates. c) Acquisition risks: We forecast a net cash position by2028 as the company prioritizes high-ROIC organic growth over large-scale M&A. See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations. MUSINGS The market is currently pricing in lower commodity prices for the big, diversifiedminers. For example, we estimate both BHP and RIO are now pricing in -10% and -8% lower commodity prices whereas GLEN continues to price in significantly lowercommodity prices (-45% on our estimates, reflecting ESG concerns). In our view, the market is likely concerned about the possibility of rate hikesfollowing the Fed meeting last month (FOMC – Hawkish shift as 9 of 18 want tohike). This resulted in big, diversified miners’ share price declining by -9% to -12%since mid-Jun (MSCI world mining index down by -10%) despite only a marginaldecline in commodity prices (iron ore -1%, copper -3%, zinc -2%). It seems marketis expecting commodity prices to decline further and hence is not pricing induration into earnings. MINERS Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211.SE) - Debates and pushbacks after upgradeto Buy CITI’S TAKE -We upgraded Ma’aden to Buy (Production ramp resumption providescompelling recovery opportunity) a couple of weeks ago. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on rising phosphate demand via its Phosphate 3expansion, a tightening aluminum market, and a bullish gold price environment.Debates have been around a) Valuation: While the stock trades at a premium topeers, we believe its superior 19% EPS CAGR justifies it, and it remains attractiveversus its own history. B) Near-term volume risks: from SoH disruptions areabating, prompting us to raise 2Q-3Q'26 estimates. c) Acquisition risks: Weforecast a net cash position by 2028 as the company prioritizes high-ROIC organicgrowth over large-scale M&A. Strong Growth Outlook —We rate Ma'aden a Buy based on its strong volumegrowth profile. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on rising phosphatedemand with its Phosphate 3 expansion. We also see decent sales growth fromaluminum amid market deficits and a tailwind from our bullish gold price forecast.We forecast a net cash balance sheet by 2028, underpinning the investment case. Valuation: Premium Justified by Growth —We acknowledge Ma'aden trades at apremium to its global peers. This valuation is justified by superior growthprospects, with our EPS CAGR forecast at 19% for '25-'28E. This is nearly doublethe growth of diversified miners. The stock also trades at -1 standard deviation toits 15-year historical average, suggesting the valuation is not excessive on a relativebasis. Near-Term Outlook: Volume Risks Abating —We see near-term volume risks fromgeopolitical tensions as abating. Our previous estimates were conservative due toconcerns over Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Following the Islamabad accord, theimpact appears minimal, leading us to increase our volume estimates for 2Q'26and 3Q'26. Strategy: Focus on Organic Growth Over M&A —We believe large-scale M&A isunlikely for Ma'aden. The company's focus is on organic growth within SaudiArabia, where it identifies high-ROIC projects. While its premium scrip could beused for acquisitions, we expect capital to be deployed on domestic expansion asthe balance sheet turns to net cash by 2028. LME Invent