美国机械行业领先指标：六月数据涵盖40个分项

Machinery Lead Indicators: June data points in 40 exhibits This note provides a holistic view of relevant data points for the Machinery sector acrossconstruction equipment, commercial vehicles and agriculture equipment, with a briefoverview of key macroeconomic indicators. Chad Dillard+1 917 344 8469chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com TheConstruction Equipmentmarket: Non-resi starts increased in May by ~30% Y/Y interms of value (similar to the the prior month), and but declined ~10% Y/Y in sq ft, vs priormonth’s -~10%. Total Non Resi spending declined 2%, vs +1% Y/Y the prior month. MayConstruction Backlog increased ~8% Y/Y, vs+1% the prior month. The Architecture BillingsIndex declined by 4%Y/Y in May (vs prior month’s +3%), and still remains below the 50mark. In Apr, Komatsu retail sales grew in North America, Europe and China by 10%, 10%,and 34%, respectively. May Dodge Momentum Index accelerated to +31% Y/Y from theprior month’s +30%. Miguel Marques, CFA+1 917 344 8432miguel.marques@bernsteinsg.com Specialist Sales Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com North America Heavy Duty Truck remains under pressure, but is showing somepositive signs.Build rates declined ~10% Y/Y during May, vs ~-10% the prior month. Netorders increased 100% Y/Y reaching ~25k units (vs ~25k prior month). Backlog increased~70% (vs ~+50% the prior month). In June, the Internet Truckstop Market Demand Indexincreased ~100% YoY (vs. ~+150% prior month). In the earliest read of Jul, DAT Spot Ratesreached $3.07, which translates to+45% Y/Y, similar to the prior month InAg equipment, farmer sentiment deteriorated in both US and European markets. Hence,sentiment remained cautious and unit volumes continued under pressure. The Purdue AGBarometer declined 3 points from the prior month to 119 in May, but remains ahead ofthe 100 mark. The CEMA Barometer declined again from -9 points in May to -20 pointsin Jun (-24 points Y/Y,vs prior -16). The North American high-horsepower (HHP) volumesdecreased ~10% Y/Y in May(vs ~-15% the prior month), and combine sales declined ~55%(vs +3% the prior month) Macroeconomicindicators:Money supply for the 3 largest economies (US, China, Europe)continued growing (MayY/Y change was +$4T, vs prior month’s of ~+$3.7T). Every $100Breduction in the money supply reduces the backlog growth of capital goods companies by1%. Conversely, global growth synchronization of top 20 economies by GDP declined to 75% (from +80% the prior month) and most of these countries are showing a positive 2ndderivative of PMI growth. Key publications released in June:See First Page of Details BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We maintain ourOutperformrating(s) on:Trimble(TRMB, TP $85),Jacobs(J, TP $163),PACCAR(PCAR, TP $138),Legence(LGN, $103),Hubbell(HUBB, $584),Eaton(ETN, $534) andUnited Rentals(URI, $1,153). We maintain ourMarket-Performrating(s) onAGCO(TP $118),Caterpillar(CAT, TP $879),Deere(DE, TP $615),Cummins(CMI, TP $700),Titan America(TTAM, $17) andOshkosh(OSK, TP $138), andQuanta(PWR, TP $725). DETAILS KEY PUBLICATIONS RELEASED IN JUNE: 29 Jun 2026 - Construction & Rental Equipment: May Dodge Construction Starts and the latest mega project starts25 Jun 2026 - Global Trucks: North America strength backed by fundamentals not prebuy... meaning a very good 2027?24 Jun 2026 - United Rentals: Technology is widening the moat23 Jun 2026 - Machinery & Transports: May Truck Demand Signals18 Jun 2026 - Powering AI: Mapping the gas turbine supply stack - a unified approach17 Jun 2026 - Powering AI: The coming wave of mid-scale generator manufacturing capacity & why the power bottleneck willease15 Jun 2026 - Liquid Cooling Primer: Coolant Distribution Units (CDUs)10 Jun 2026 - US Industrials & Tech: The Data Center Project Pipeline - Capacity, Construction & Cancellations (May '26)10 Jun 2026 - Jacobs Solutions: Biotech Construction Site Tour and Why AI Is Enhancing Their Right to Win8 Jun 2026 - AI Value Chain: How much does a GW of Vera Rubin data center capacity actually cost?7 Jun 2026 - State of Utility Capex 1Q26 - more multi-year upgrades led by data centers, with a focus on new generation spend3 Jun 2026 - Eaton: Best Idea Presentation Slides from Bernstein's 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference2 Jun 2026 - Equipment Rental: Inflation coming (back) into view CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT EXHIBIT 10:The US Construction backlog increased 3% from the prior month and 8% from prior year and continuesahead of the historical average. This is lead by the heavy industrial and infra categories EXHIBIT 12:May FAST net sales declined 5% M/M but increased +9% Y/Y, decelerating from Aprs +~15%. However,measured from a daily sales perspective, the indicator accelerated from +14% Y/Y in Apr to +15% in May. EXHIBIT 13:From an end market perspective, manufacturing accelerated 100 bps to +12% Y/Y, and non residecelerated from +20% yo ~+15%. COMMERCIAL VEHICLES EXHIBIT 26:Agriculture Equipment Summary EXHIBIT 28: