对差异化中型银行Forbright的首次覆盖：买入评级及23美元目标价

Adding a structurallydifferentiatedmid-cap bank at OW Initiating Coverage We initiate coverage and add a bank with a unique growthstrategy to our mid-cap universe at Overweight. FRBTOVERWEIGHTfrom Not RatedU.S. Mid-Cap BanksPOSITIVEUnchangedPrice TargetUSD 23.00from N/APrice (02-Jul-26)USD 18.75Potential Upside/Downside+22.7%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Forbright Inc. (FRBT) - Overweight, $23 price target Company Overview, Financials, and Valuation We initiate coverage of Forbright with an Overweight rating and $23 price target, as we view thecompany as a structurallydifferentiatedmid-cap bank with a longer-duration growth profileand multiple levers for earnings expansion. We establish EPS estimates of $1.31/$2.36/$3.01 for2026/2027/2028, respectively. At the core of the story is a specialized, national middle-marketlending platform that continues to scale across multiple verticals, many of which remain inrelatively early stages of development. This has driven sustained class-leading loan growth(~30% in FY25) and a ~100bps+ yield premium vs. peers, supported by sector expertise and ahybrid positioning between traditional banks and private credit. In our view, this combinationprovides a compelling foundation for continued balance sheet growth and attractive risk-adjusted returns over the medium term. Equally important, Forbright's digital deposit platform represents a scalable funding advantage,enabling the bank to grow deposits nationally without the fixed cost burden of a branchnetwork. While current funding costs are elevated due to pricing-led acquisition, we see apathway to an improved funding mix and operating leverage as the platform matures,supported by continued deposit growth, reduced reliance on wholesale funding, and theplanned rollout of digital checking accounts. This dynamic, combined with a predominantlyfloating rate loan book, positions the company for NIM expansion and accelerating NII growth,particularly in a stable rate environment. Price PerformanceExchange-Nasdaq52 Week rangeUSD 19.27-17.48 From a risk perspective, we acknowledge that headline credit metrics (elevated NPLs) screenweaker than peers; however, we believe this is mostly driven by legacy Congressional Bank CRE,consumer, and small business exposure and a limited number of idiosyncratic credits, ratherthan broad-based deterioration. With a shorter-duration, collateral focused loan book,centralized underwriting framework, and excess spread to absorb losses, we view credit costs asmanageable within the context of the growth strategy. U.S. Mid-Cap Banks Jared Shaw+1 617 342 4101jared.shaw@barclays.comBCI, US We see Forbright as one of the more compelling growth-oriented stories in the mid-cap bankuniverse, with a scalable business model, multiple earnings levers, and improving profitabilityprofile, supporting our Overweight rating. Jonathan Rau+1 617 342 4283jonathan.rau@barclays.comBCI, US Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Emily Rodriguez+1 212 526 7180emily.rodriguez@barclays.comBCI, US Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 24.Completed: 02-Jul-26, 22:19 GMTReleased: 06-Jul-26, 04:10 GMTRestricted - External Our $23 price target represents 9.7x our '27 Operating EPS estimate. This is a discount to thegroup median of 10.8x based on below-average profitability and low loan loss reservesoffsetbyhigher growth trends. Comp Sheet and Comparisons to Coverage Universe Source: FR-Y-9C Reports and S&P Global Market Intelligence Lending Profile Forbright operates a national, sector-specialized loan origination model with centralized creditunderwriting and risk management, which allows it to scale across verticals while maintainingconsistency in underwriting standards. Forbright's $5.8B loan portfolio (including $407.6MM ofloans held for sale) is predominantly commercial (~96% of loans HFI), with limited exposure toconsumer lending. The portfolio is structured around shorter-duration, floating-rate assets,reflecting both the lack of traditional residential mortgage exposure and the bank's intentionalfocus on transitional and bridge lending strategies. From a composition standpoint, theportfolio is diversified across C&I and CRE exposures, with CRE further split between owner-occupied (54%) and non-owner-occupied (46%). Within CRE, the portfolio has a significantconcentration in healthcare-related real estate (60% of CRE), consistent with the bank'sspecialization. We believe the combination of shorter duration, floating-rate exposure, andcentralized credit discipline supports both asset sensitivity and faster capital turnover, whichare keydifferentiatorsvs.