全球奢侈品：中西社交媒体品牌热度对比 二季度信号不一

Global Luxury Goods: Chinese & Western Social Media BoxingRing 2Q26 - Mixed signals We dive into luxury brands' 2Q26 relative performance on social media platforms relevant toChinese and Western consumers. Luca Solca+41 582 723 126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.com We observe relatively ‘spiky’ social media trends in 2Q26.Across both Westernand Chinese social media sites, we see spikes in interest at brands such as AlexanderMcQueen, Stella McCartney, and Marc Jacobs, driven by (1) frigid brand heat, creating avery low comparable base, and (2) idiosyncratic events such as the H&M x Stella McCartneycollaboration in May’26, and newsflow around LVMH’s disposal of Marc Jacobs generating aspike in social media activity. We would expect these one-off spikes in ‘brand heat’ to pass. Maria Meita+44 20 7170 0540maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com Yi-Peng Khoo, CFA+44 20 7676 6822yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.com Parsing the signal from the noise sees: Chanelsustaining its momentum across bothregions,Ralph Laurenin the China, andZegnamaintaining its lead in the West.Pradaclinches the top spot in China even asMiu Miudecelerates in both regions. Eric Chen, CFA+852 2123 2628eric.chen@bernsteinsg.com Chanel seems to have overshadowed turnarounds at Gucci and Dior to some extent. Specialist Sales Our momentum scores see Chanel taking the 4thposition in West and the 2ndposition inChina. Dior, in contrast, lands at 16thand 14th, Gucci at 15thand 13th- an improvementfrom 2025’s nadir, but still a far cry from Chanel’s viral rebirth. We would expect Chanel toenjoy a more significant re-acceleration of performance than Dior and Gucci. Nevertheless,we believe Dior’s revival remains on-track, with the LVMH-owned brand likely to deliver agradual return to positive growth (see Comment: LVMH 2Q26 preview). Gucci, in contrast,has spent 12 to 15 quarters in the wilderness as ‘Quiet Luxury’ dominated the fashionzeitgeist. These headwinds, though attenuating, continue to persist, even as competitionfrom a resurgent Chanel and improving Dior heats up. We would expect a much moregradual turnaround at Gucci (see Kering: Key themes ahead of 1H26). Alix Turner+44 20 7762 4044alix.turner@bernsteinsg.com Momentum at Zegna - the high-end menswear specialist - remains robust in the West.We believe there are three potential factors to consider: (1) Zegna enjoys anadvantage of a low base - it remains a relatively niche brand; (2) The menswear zeitgeistseems to have shifted in Zegna’s favour as consumers move towards a slightly more formal“dressy” look, particularly in footwear (see Global Sportswear: The death of sneakers?) - apotential boost to Zegna’s iconic Triple Stitch; and (3) consumer polarization and buoyanthigh-end demand add another tailwind (see Global Luxury Goods: Preparing for consumerpolarization and Part 2). Together, these trends dovetail with recent company commentarypointing to solid performance in the West (see Comment: Zegna 2Q26 preview). Prada Group offers a contrasted performance.The fashion pendulum has swung awayfrom Miu Miu. We see the brand falling -6 places to 18thin the West, while a 6 rung climbup the ladder still leaves it at 9thplace in China. The main Prada brand continues to seeaverage brand momentum in the West, but clinches pole position in China. The main Pradabrand may well deliver incremental brand acceleration in 2Q26 even as Miu Miu strugglesagainst tougher comparables and a higher than average exposure to the Middle East (seePrada: Key themes ahead of 1H26). BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE PRICE TARGET CHANGE / ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLD INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Questions abound on the long-term rate, trajectory and drivers of global luxury goods demand. If China was to go back to producing wealth to a larger and larger aspirational consumer audience, global luxury goods would goback to being a global middle class play. In that context, best in class mega-brands would once again lead growth and returns(See Global Luxury Goods: The Six Rings of Quality). These would include LVMH with LV, Hermès, Richemont with Cartier andVan Cleef & Arpels. If instead income and wealth inequality continued to increase, the richest consumers would be driving the global luxury marketgrowth, putting smaller and higher brands at an advantage. These would include high-end specialists like Ferrari, BrunelloCucinelli and Zegna, as well as private companies like Stefano Ricci or Graff. Given its flexibility and credibility to serve both the high-end and the aspirational consumers, we see Richemont thriving in bothscenarios. Which confirms it as our most preferred long-term exposure in the sector. Alternative, investors should also be servedwell by backing specialists at the high end in our coverage, such as Zegna and Brunello Cucinelli, to surf the wave of wealthcreation and resilience at the high-end (Global Luxury Goods: The Future of Small Brands). Kering Model Update We update our financial forecasts to incorporate recent company comment