AZN非肿瘤学领域意外惊喜：我们的观点为何被强化

Justin Smith+44 20 7762 5899justin.smith@bernsteinsg.com Shan Mian+44 20 7676 8981shan.mian@bernsteinsg.com Maximilian Brewster+44 20 7550 2193maximilian.brewster@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Specialist Sales AZN.LN 18,900 GBp(18,600OLD) Christian Moore+1 917 344 8555christian.moore@bernsteinsg.com AZN (O): non-oncology upside surprise - why's our thesis nowbeen strengthened? Despite the promising non-oncology phase 3 data since 3Q25, our channel checks indicatethat this business still doesn’t command its fair share of the debate. This is intriguing as non-oncology drives 65% of our group sales CAGR (26-31e) of 8% and all the top-line upside.Ourthesis is now strengthened post a deep dive into the $20bn peak market for drugs whichstop proteins strangling the heart (ATTR-CM). Our new 2036e AZN ATTR of $10bn (up60%) implies 10% upside to theconsensus (Bloomberg) group sales. We expect positive‘CardioTTRansform’ phase 3 data for AZN’s Wainua in 2H26 to unlock this upside. Close Date2 Jul 2026AZN.LN Close Price (GBp)14,538Price Target (GBp)18,900Upside/(Downside)30%52-Week Range15,730/10,112EDME1,622.79FYEDecDiv Yield1.7%Market Cap (GBP) (M)223,130EV (GBp) (M)324,352 What’s changed?Our deep dive into the $20bn potential market for drugs which stopprotein ‘strangling’ of the heart (ATTR-CM). Post expert calls we now expect AZN to lead herefor four reasonsA/AZN is the only company with all three validated drug mechanisms ofaction (doctors think combination therapy is the most effective approach)B/precedentsstrongly suggest that AZN’s entrance should materially expand the marketC/AZN’sinvestment power means that physician awareness of Wainua is already highD/thelandmark CardioTTRansform trial should be the most competitive dataset. We thus upgradeour AZN ATTR 2036e franchise by 60% to $10bn within which we now expect Wainua tobecome AZN’s 2nd largest non-oncology drug. What’s the risk-reward?We calculate the impact on 2035e EBIT (= DCF proxy). In ourbull case we derive 167% upside vs 97% bear case downside. The approved drugs accountfor 90% of the upside and 51% of the downside with top 3 contributors Ultomiris (RareDiseases), Wainua & Enhertu (cancer). In the pipeline the top 3 variances are Baxfendy (bloodpressure, kidney disease), camizestrant (breast cancer) and volrustomig (lung cancer). Investment Implications How do we calculate our Price Target?Still the average of DCF (£156 (+5%); 8% WACC& 2.5% perpetuity growth; both unchanged) and EV/EBITA (£223 (-1%); 60% premium toEU peers retained). Our PT rises 2% to £189 due to our ATTTR upgrades. Considering AZN’sleading R&D engine, our PT implies an adj PE30e of 15x for a 40% premium to EU peers. Wealso think AZN looks cheap on 5-year forward sales regression vs global peers. Table Of Contents Executive Summary - why should azn lead in a $20bn peak non-oncology market?......................................................................................2Valuation - Why is our AZN PT increasing?.................................................................................................................................................................... 5 DETAILS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - WHY SHOULD AZN LEAD IN A $20BN PEAK NON-ONCOLOGY MARKET? Transthyretin amyloidosis (ATTR) is a disease where mis-folded proteins accumulate to cause life-threatening organ failure,most seriously in the heart (cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM); ca 800k sufferers in the G8). Disease modifying treatments (unlikemost drugs which alleviate symptoms) include stabilisers and more importantly gene silencers like Amvuttra (consensus peak$9Bn) developed by Alnylam (Pickering; O). But mortality rates in ATTR-CM still mirror those in severe cancers, with USdiagnosis rates of just 25%. In 2H26 AZN will release the landmark phase III study (cardioTTRansform) for its silencer Wainua(peak guidance >$5Bn vs peak consensus of $2Bn). In our view, strong results would secure best in class status and make Wainua AZN’s secondlargest non-oncology drug. We also prosecute AZN’s other promising ATTR-CM phase 3 drug (cliramitug; peak guidance$3-5Bn vs consensus of $2Bn) which has a new mechanism of action (depleter) and is first-in-class. Depleters uniquely removethe ATTR plaques which cause the debilitating symptoms in the heart. Why do we expect AstraZeneca to win in the $20bn peak ATTR market (which offers a 10% CAGR to (26-36e))? We believe that Wainua & cliramitug, plus AZN’s commercialization of stabiliser Attruby in Japan (BridgeBio (Pickering;O), globalpeak sales $4Bn) makes itthe only company with a complete portfolio of ATTR drugs.Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) haveemphasized to us that a combination drug approach will yield the best results. In addition, post our channel checks with experts,we understand that AZN’s Alexion Rare Disease legacy is an important competitive advantage in ATTR-CM. Via thorough new bottom-up patient based modeling, corroborated by top-down US prescription data,we