电力革命：弹性——软件与IT服务：汽车供应链转型的战略推动者

Electric Revolution: Resilience - Software and IT Services:Strategic enablers of automotive supply chain transformation Welcome to the 2026 edition of Bernstein’s Electric Revolution series - our annual cross-sector look at the transformation of the EV landscape. This year, we focus on supply chainresilience, a theme rising in importance as EV adoption diverges by region and geopoliticalrisks intensify. OEMs and suppliers face growing pressure to anticipate, navigate, and recoverquickly from disruptions across sourcing, production and logistics. Richard Nguyen+33 1 42 13 54 22richard.nguyen@bernsteinsg.com Derric Marcon+33 1 58 98 06 30derric.marcon@bernsteinsg.com Automotive supply-chain resilience is emerging as one of the sector’s most durabletechnology spending themes. Repeated disruptions across semiconductors, batteries,critical minerals, software and logistics are pushing OEMs away from purely cost-optimizedsupply chains toward resilience-driven operating models. We believe resilience spendingis becoming a distinct and increasingly non-discretionary budget category, underpinningdemand for AI-enabled risk management, digital twins, control towers, traceability andcollaboration platforms. In this note, we assess the implications for the automotivetechnology ecosystem and identify SAP and Capgemini as among the clearest structuralbeneficiaries of this multi-year shift. Mark L. Moerdler, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8506mark.moerdler@bernsteinsg.com Firoz Valliji, CFA+1 917 344 8316firoz.valliji@bernsteinsg.com Shelly Tang, CFA+1 917 344 8342shelly.tang@bernsteinsg.com Resilience is no longer just an operational concern - it is a boardroom priority.Electrification, software-defined vehicles, geopolitical fragmentation and tighter regulationare increasing supply-chain complexity and raising the cost of disruption. As a result, OEMsare prioritizing visibility, continuity and risk management over pure efficiency, creating a moreresilient technology spending outlook. Specialist Sales Kiran Shah, CFA+44 20 3547 1533kiran.shah@bernsteinsg.com The industry is also moving from reactive crisis management to predictive resilience.Investments in multi-tier supplier visibility, AI-powered risk monitoring and digital twinsare helping companies identify vulnerabilities and model disruptions before production isaffected. At the same time, resilience now extends beyond physical supply chains to batterytraceability, cybersecurity, software governance and ESG compliance, broadening the scopeof future technology investment. This shift is elevating software and services providers into strategic partners. SAPis evolving from a traditional ERP vendor into a supply-chain control-tower platformcombining visibility, planning, collaboration and compliance, while Capgemini helps clientsredesign operating models, integrate fragmented systems and execute large-scale resilienceprograms. Gartner forecasts automotive SCM software spending growth of c.14% CAGRthrough 2030, equivalent to a cumulative revenue opportunity of roughly $4bn. Bottom line:we view supply-chain resilience as a structural growth theme rather than acyclical one. While project timing may fluctuate with automotive demand, the key drivers -electrification, regulatory complexity, geopolitical risk, rising software content and supply-chain digitalization - are unlikely to reverse. With around 8% of revenue exposed toautomotive, both SAP and Capgemini appear well positioned to benefit. However, the scaleand durability of the opportunity remain debated, and we therefore assess the key bull andbear arguments for both companies later in the report. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS The resilience theme is relevant across our wider European software and IT services coverage, albeit with varying degrees ofexposure. Automotive accounts for an estimated 23% of revenue at Dassault Systèmes, 15% at Alten, 9% at Reply, and around8% at both SAP and Capgemini, while exposure is limited to the low-single digits at Sopra Steria and Indra. However, not all automotive exposure is equally leveraged to the supply-chain resilience opportunity. Dassault Systèmes andAlten are primarily positioned in vehicle design, engineering and R&D activities, benefiting more directly from trends such aselectrification, software-defined vehicles and product development cycles than from investments in core supply-chain IT systems.Capgemini occupies a more balanced position following the Altran acquisition, combining significant exposure to automotiveengineering and R&D with a leading presence in traditional IT, enterprise transformation and supply-chain digitization. Meanwhile,SAP and, to a lesser extent, Reply are more directly exposed to investments in supply-chain management, risk monitoring, controltowers and broader operational resilience programs, making them among the purest beneficiaries of the resilience spendingtheme discussed in this report. We reiterate our ratings and price targets. Outperform: Al