美国前景：等待方向

Awaiting directionWarsh'sremarksatSintraprovidednocluesabouthowpolicy might respond to data just as the economy approaches acritical juncture. June's jobs data hinted at moderation, butdid not settle the debate. For now, this has both the economyand markets awaiting direction. +12125264876jonathan.millar@barclays.comBCI, USMarc Giannoni +12125269373marc.giannoni@barclays.comBCI, USPooja Sriram Fed'sframework review could producesignificant changesto communications policy.Theappointment ofMervyn King suggeststhatthecommunicationstaskforcemay eventuallyfavora framework that explains policydecisions whilede-emphasizing signals about thefuture rate path. +1212526 0713pooja.sriram@barclays.comBCI, US :June's employment report provided tentative signs oflabormarket moderation, with payrollgains slowing and prior months revised lower. However, continued weakness in labor-forceparticipation,particularly among workers aged 25-34,suggests that slowerimmigration andotherlabor supply constraints continue toreduce the speed limit of sustainable jobgrowth. +12125268536colin.johanson@barclays.comBCI, US · Our baseline remains an extended hold in policy rates, conditional on inflation, activity, andlabor market conditions moderating through the summer.The principal risk is that gains inemployment and spending re-accelerate while labor supply remains constrained, keepinginflation pressures elevated and placing hikes on the table. ThenewframeworkunderWarshisstilltakingshapeMuch as we had anticipated, FOMC Chairman Kevin Warsh expressed a striking reluctanceat this week's EcB's Sintra Forum to expressing allforms of forward guidance, which extends notonly to explicit commitments about policy rates but also detailed discussions about thecommittee's thought process that might help clarifythe policy reaction function. To our ear,theone cleartakeaway was his reiteration that Al-related productivity gains are beginning toemerge and that these developments will ultimatelyprove disinflationary.His remarks alsoreinforced the sense that the five task forces unveiled at the May FOMC meeting have thepotential to produce more profound changes thanmarkets may appreciate,including thepossibleelimination of the Summary of Economic Projections and aspirations about reorientingthe Fed's data analysis tomore timely data. News that former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King has been appointed to the taskforceon communications may provide early clues about its direction of travel. In our view,King'sinvolvement leans against outcomes involving little to no transparency,although he has beencritical of"forward guidance"(interpreted as the combined communication of policyintentionsand a specificforecast),as this has generally resulted in unwarranted certainty about futurepolicydecisions ratherthan focusing on communication,perse.Akeytheme of King's widebody of work is that central banks should communicateclearly abouttheir objectives,reasoning,andassessment of risks whileavoiding unnecessarily precise guidance about thepath of rates. On that basis, we suspect his involvement could help direct the review toward a emphasizing signals about rate decisionsthrough the dot plot and the statement. narrativeasdescribedinspeechesandinflationreports - is crucial in building and maintainingthereputationofpolicymakersandthebeliefamong the wider population that inflation, evenif on occasions it deviates from target, will comeback to target. " communications are still broadly consistent with ourbaseline expectation of an extended holdin policy rates.That baseline,however, remains conditional on incoming data showing somemoderation in inflation, labor market conditions,and economic activity during the summermonths. The principal risk is that such moderation fails to materialize,placing hikes on thetable. Labormarketdata:Signs ofmoderation,notweakness This week's employment report moved in the direction of ourindefinite-hold baseline, albeitonly on the margin. Nonfarm payrolls (Figure 1) increased 57k in June (Barclays 10ok,consensus113k),withdownward revisionstoMayand othermonths loweringthe3mmapaceto111k/m, implyinga moremoderateacceleration thanMay'spreviouslypublished188k/m3mma pace.This followsthree months in whichjobgains had well surpassed our assessment ofthe breakeven pace (0-1ok/m).Atthe same time,theunemployment rate edged downforthefirst time since March, from 4.30% to 4.19% (Figure 2), finally exhibiting at least some degree ofcoherence with the signs of strengthening labor demand in recent payroll and JOLTS (Figure 4)estimates. leisure and hospitality category, which shed 61k jobs following a 40k gain in May. This hints atearlier-than-normal hiring this year, perhaps consistent with a pull-forward related to the FIFAWorld Cup.Meanwhile, hours worked (+0.1% m/m) and average hourly earnings (+0.3%m/m)imply a 0.4% m/m increase in payroll income, which has now accelerated to 5.1% 3m saar, afterhavingbottomed at2.9%3m saarin February,amid