卡普空：AI难及创意与IP实力

11%robin.zhu@bernsteinsg.comCharles Gou +85221232618charles.gou@bernsteinsg.com 23.4minjoo.kang@bernsteinsg.com ? 9697.JP +813 6777 6979hyrum.caesar@bernsteinsg.com Capcom: There are some things Al can't do... remains the clearest opportunity in Japan Video Gaming,andoffers attractive asymmetryaccumulateSteamreviewsatdoubletherateofRE4Remake,whilePragmatahas exceededlevelsassumed inCapcom'sFY3/27Eguide.MHWildsSteamreviewshavebeen90%+positive sincethe Jan 28PC patch, which should bode well for MHWilds:Ascension sales.REVeronica is accumulatingwishlists andSteamfollows at afasterpacethanRE Requiem. Alsolvesfor execution,Capcom solves forcreativityandvisibility.Partnering withGooglehelped Capcomto compress3,000-5,000hoursofmapchecks into72hours of Alcompute,and the company now runs 30,oo0 hours a month of playtesting using agentic Al.On the other hand,there's no training dataset for how to delivertop-tier,out-of-distributioncreativity... or decades long IP franchise strength. While the total number of new gamelaunches on Steam rose from 12.3k in 2022 to 21.4kin 2025, in part thanks to Al, thenumberofgameseachyearthat'sattractedover1Okreviews(alowbarforcommercialrelevance)has gone from 75 to...72.We expect top tier IP and curated experiences likethose from Capcomto remainkey drivers of engagement as Western competition exitsthe Could history rhyme?Therehave been sensiblereasonsfor Capcom's de-rating since lastsummer.Butthe company'sfundamentals havearguablyimproved inthe interim, and thecombination ofa strong launchcadence andfavourableJPY means we expect operatingprofit growth to meaningfully exceed the 10% Capcom likes to manage towards.At theindustry level, we've heard encouragingfeedback on ourthesis that the GTA Vl launch coulddrive a redistribution of capital within global video gaming. The last time Capcom traded thischeaply in Q1 2022, the stock finished the year more than 70% higher... just sayin. InvestmentImplicationsWerateCapcomOutperform(PTJPY4,600). Capcomcontinuesto strikeus as the clearest opportunity inthe Japan Video Gaming sector.Compared witha yearago the company's fundamentals have arguably improved,while the company's forward PE multiple has compressed from a high of 35xPElast summer (which in hindsight was admittedly too high)to something in the 19x PE range. This has taken place in large partdue to the global rotation in favour of Al semis and hardware, for which the video gaming sector has been a funding source. Atthis point though with Capcom's next twelve month new release line-up looking robust.The company's broaderfundamentalsimproving in part thanks to smart use of Al tools. Meanwhile the stock trades on forward PE multiples that are more than onestandard deviation below long-term averages. meaningfully higher growth for share winners. We expect the unwind of the (wildly ill-advised in hindsight) 2021-2022 capitalcycle in video gamingto continue,and expect competitorexits to benefit the likes of Capcom.Whiletheupcoming GTA Vl launchhasdrivenalogjamofnewgame releases inSeptember,aswell as engagementconcernsforeveryoneelse intolate2026,weexpect Monster Hunter Wilds:Ascendanceand Resident Evil Veronica toanchora strong newlaunch line-upforCapcom in2027.Meanwhile,our recent discussions with investors have generally supported the idea that the GTA Vl launch couldbe aclearing eventforthe restofthe videogaming sector,withallocationofcapitalwithin the space likelytorotateawayfrom Take-Two overtime. We've argued at various points in the pastthat Capcom's combination of (1)in-house engine development; and (2) iterative gamedevelopmentpromoting cross-pollination ofnewfeatures contributestocreativequality.Looking atthe results,Capcomranked amongthe industry'stop 3 developers in each of 2023-2025,based on Metacritic's annual developerrankings (seeExhibit 2). With Resident Evil Requiem, Pragmata, and Monster Hunter Stories 3 scoring 89, 85,and 86 -and Onimusha lookingstrong (the demo was downloaded over1mn times)-it seemsbeyonddoubtthat Capcom willrank strongly again in 2026 (seeExhibit 3). In terms of sales, RE Requiem continues to sell solidly. Having confirmed 7mn units sold shortly after launch, we note that Steamreviews forthegame continueto run at almost doublethepace of RE4 Remake at a similar stage afterlaunch.8.5-9.Omn unitsFY3/27E,and importantly looks like the start ofa new IPfranchise (see Exhibit 5).Taken together, we think the combination(e.g.Dragon's Dogma 2Dark Arisen)means company'sguidancefor 65mnnewgame sales units should bereadily achievablewithout making heroic assumptions on sales bytitle (see Exhibit 6).But even a slightmiss on catalog units (in the context ofhighconcerned. Somepreliminaryestimates forthe2027 line-up:can Ascension compensateforMHWilds'PCissues? Ourbasecaseis MonsterHunterWilds:Ascendance releases inCapcom'sannual February/Marchslot,followedbyREVeronicainFY3/28E (see Exhibit 7).It feelsnotable that Steamreviews forMHWilds improved toover 90