巴西2050年愿景：到2050年成为世界第五大经济体

Becoming the world's Executivesummary Brazil's economic performance since Roland Berger established its Brazilian office in1976 has fallen persistently short of the country's potential – and of what is required to We demonstrate that it is not only possible, but imperative, to aspire to a Brazil thatgrows at 4.0 % per annum through 2050 – more than double the 1.5 % rate recorded in recent First, Brazil implements structural reforms that drive accelerated and lastingproductivity growth, including regulatory overhauls that unlock private investment. Brazil Second, Brazil seizes the opportunities created by powerful global megatrends,transforming tailwinds into engines of growth. Rising global food demand, the accelerating An annual growth rate of 4 % would allow Brazil to replicate the performance ofnations that successfully transitioned from developing to developed status within 20 to30 years. Under this scenario, GDP per capita would reach USD 28,000 – comparable Contents GDP per capitamay reachUSD 28,000 – Brazil couldbecome The case for Brazil 2050 When Roland Berger arrived in Brazil in 1976, the country was a very different place. Thepopulation was half of what it is today, and the workforce barely a third. The decades thatfollowed brought remarkable social progress: illiteracy fell from 30% to just 5%, college And yet, despite this social and demographic transformation, Brazil's economicperformance has fallen short of its promise. A country that once ranked among the threefastest-growing economies on Earth – recording GDP growth exceeding 10% per year in the This paper explores what Brazil can achieve by 2050 if it puts its house in order and seizesthe opportunities presented by global megatrends – and contrasts that future with theunsatisfying alternative of repeating the policies of recent decades. Our approach follows This paper was developed as a collaboration between Roland Berger's Brazilian officeand the Roland Berger Institute (RBI), our global economics research institute. Central to theanalysis is RBI's proprietary research on global megatrends and their economic and societal AWe took a four-step approach to visualize Brazil in 2050, anchored inproprietary Roland Berger research on major megatrends shaping Although it couldn't be known at the time, 1976 marked the final years of an extraordinaryperiod of long growth that positioned Brazil as one of the top-performing economies on Since approximately 1980, however, Brazil's story has been one of persistentunderperformance. GDP per capita has grown at a modest 0.9% per year – barely half theglobal average of 1.6%, and a fraction of the 3.8% achieved by upper-middle-income The prevailing consensus holds that Brazil's economic performance over the next 25years will mirror the past ~50, with GDP and GDP per capita growing at 1.0-2.0 % per year.Taking the midpoint of this range, Brazil's GDP would expand from USD 2.3 trillion today to We believe Brazil can do dramatically better. With the right structural conditions inplace – and given Brazil's exceptional positioning to ride the tailwinds of global While this aspiration may seem bold after five decades of underperformance, it isworth remembering two things: it reflects performance Brazil has achieved before, and it is The choice between 1.5%and 4.0% growth is nottechnical – it is a question of Pedro Guimarães, Senior Partner and Managing Partner,Roland Berger Brazil GDP per capita, Brazil vs. world, 1976-2025[indexed, 1976 = 100, based on real 2025 USD] CBrazil can perform much better if it puts its house inorder and rides the tailwinds of global megatrends Real GDP under Roland Berger's aspirational case for 2050[real 2025 USD trillion] What it will take to put Brazil's house in order Several powerful global megatrends, as explored in the following chapter, will create strongtailwinds for the Brazilian economy. Yet one megatrend will pose a challenge: declining If labor input will not grow, achieving the aspirational scenario demands productivity Brazil did not grow while its workforce was growing, but nowthat it is not,Brazil is going to need to increase its productivity EOptimizing five levers will unlock the aspirational4 % growth scenario This exceeds the productivity growth rates embedded in Brazil's recent history – and in thebase case. Yet we believe it is achievable. Our analysis of five critical productivity leversconsistently leads to the same conclusion: there are no structural impediments preventing We analyzed five levers widely recognized as fundamental drivers of productivity. Ineach, Brazil is underperforming relative not only to higher-income economies, but to its own LEVER 1: CAPITAL DEEPENING Brazil's capital stock per worker is significantly below that of economies at the income levelsassociated with the aspirational scenario. Closing this gap is essential: a higher capital stock We estimate that Brazil's aggregate investment rate would need