澳大利亚乳制品市场半年度报告

Required Report:Required-PublicDistribution Report Number:AS2026-0012 Report Name:Dairy and Products Semi-annual Country:AustraliaPost:CanberraReport Category:Dairy and Products Prepared By:Zeljko Biki Approved By:Lazaro Sandoval Report Highlights: Australia’s milk production in 2026 is estimated to increase by 1.4 percent to 8.6 million metric tons,following a 2.1 percent decrease in 2025. This is a partial recoveryafter drought conditions impactedsouthwest Victoria and South Australia. This milk production growth is supported by firm farmgate milkprices, improved seasonal conditions, and relatively low feed grain costs. Domestic fluid milkconsumption in 2026 is expected to decline by 0.5 percent, continuing a long-term downward trend.Factory-use milk consumption is projected to increase by 1.8 percent, largely reflecting the anticipated THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILYSTATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Australia’s milk production in 2026 is estimated to increase by 1.4 percent to 8.60million metric tons(MMT), following a notable 2.1 percent decline in 2025.The increase representsa partial recovery fromdrought conditions that affected southwest Victoria, one of Australia’s major dairy-producing regions,and South Australia.Improved seasonal conditions, firm farmgate milk prices announced for the2026/27 season, and relatively lower feed grain costs are expected to support the recovery in production. Domestic fluid milk consumption in 2026 is projected to decline by 0.5 percent to 2.40 MMT, reflectinga return to the longer-term trend of gradually declining consumption followinga modest increase in Consumer preferences in 2025 continued to favor full-fat and flavored milk products, while demand forultra-high temperature (UHT) and reduced-fat milk declined. Factory-use milk consumption in 2026 isforecast to increase by 1.8 percent to 6.01 MMT, primarily due to the expected increase in overall milk With factory-use milk consumption projected to rise modestly in 2026, production of manufactureddairy products is also expected to increase slightly from the previous year. Cheese andskim milkpowder (SMP)production are forecast to increase marginally, while butter and whole milk powder(WMP) production are expected to remain relatively unchanged, albeit at historically low levels. Dairy Fluid milk exports are forecast to increase in 2026 for the second consecutive year, supported by signsof strengthening demand in two key export markets following a trough in 2024. Cheese and SMPexports are also projected to increase by 1.7 percent and1.9percent, respectively, supported by higherproduction volumes. Butter exports are expected to rise modestly from a relatively low base. In contrast, Cheese imports are forecast to increase by 4.3 percent in 2026, reaching a record level as imports fromthe United States continue to expand at the expense of New Zealand. Butter imports are also projected torise to match the record level reached in 2023,similarly driven by increased shipments from the UnitedStates and reduced market share for New Zealand suppliers.WMP imports are also anticipated toincrease modestly in 2026, but with imports double that of domestic consumption, this is driven by 2026 MilkProduction Estimate FAS/Canberra has revised its estimate for Australia’s 2026 milk production upward by 0.6 percent to8.60 MMT,an increase of 1.4 percent over 2025. The upward revision reflects a stronger-than-anticipated recovery from drought conditions in southwestVictoria and South Australia. In addition, processors have announced opening milk prices for the2026/27 season that are firm, although slightly below the final prices received during 2025/26. Whiledairy farmers continue to face higher fuel and fertilizer costs associated withtheongoing Middle East Most dairy-producing regions have experienced a favorable autumn break, creating good pasture growthconditions for late autumn and early winter. However, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM),together with several international forecasting agencies, has indicated a strong likelihood that El Niñoconditions could develop later in 2026. El Niño is typically associated with below-average rainfall and Australian milk production increased by 1.6 percent during the first three months of 2026 compared with Milk production in Australia is highly seasonal. Most dairy farmers, particularly in the southern states,calve during late autumn and winter so that peak lactation coincides with spring pasture growth whentemperate regions provide optimal pasture quantity and quality. Milk production typically peaks inOctober before gradually declining through the remainder of the season. As a result, conditions during During 2025, southwest Victoria and South Australia, which together account for approximately 28percent of national milk production, remained affected by drought through