美国运通公司2Q26模型更新：持续改善趋势，预期2Q表现良好

American Express Company (AXP.N) 2Q26 Model Update - Continued Improving Trends, Expect Good 2QPrint CITI'S TAKE Neutral Price (26 Jun 26 16:00)US$340.36Target priceUS$355.00Expected share price return4.3%Expected dividend yield1.2%Expected total return5.5%Market CapUS$232,237M Recent conference commentary was constructive, with mgmt indicatingbilled business growth trending above 1Q's 9% FX-adjusted pace andconsumer spending and credit trends remain resilient. April and Maymaster trust data tell a similar story, with NCOs and DQs roughly flat todown y/y. While underlying trends are improving, much of the near-termupside is tempered by mgmt's clear intention to reinvest incremental Benjamin GerlingerAC+1-212-816-3538benjamin.gerlinger@citi.com Estimate Changes—Our 2026E EPS decreases 10c to $17.50 (vs. FactSetconsensus of $17.62), 2027E EPS decreases 45c to $19.50 (vs. FactSet consensus of$20.13), and 2028E EPS decreases 45c to $21.45 (see Figure 1 for more detail onestimate revisions). AXP reports 2Q26 earnings on July 24, 2026. Mikhail Mrotchek+1-212-816-2345misha.mrotchek@citi.com Kaili Wang, CFA+1-716-730-7408kaili.wang@citi.com Source: Citi Research American Express Company Company descriptionAmerican Express is a market-leading global integrated payments company offering credit and charge cards to consumers, small businesses, and corporates. American Express aims to serve premium customers with higher spend and stronger creditperformance. The integrated payments platform is a key differentiator allowing American Express to offer card issuing, Investment strategyWe rate the shares of American Express (AXP) as Neutral (2). AXP has a strong growth profile, high sustainable returns, and lower cyclicality than peers, which has resulted in the stock trading at a premium multiple. While we believe management'srevenue and EPS growth targets are achievable over the longer term, we do not see much room for upward revisions to ValuationOur $355 target price for American Express is derived from our discounted residual income model, which incorporates our three-year forward earnings projection, a seven-year fade period, and a steady-state terminal value at year 10. The key inputsto the model assume a 10.6% cost of equity, including a risk-free rate of 4.1%, equity risk premium of 3.7%, and beta of 1.75, RisksA key macroeconomic risk to AXP is the Fed being unable to achieve a “soft landing,” which could lead to lower billings growth and increased credit risk. While we do not expect significant losses, if credit conditions deteriorate beyond our expectations, itmay impose significant headwinds to earnings and achieving our target price. Company-Specific Positive Risks: AXP has a well-established integrated network with exposure to favorable, fast-growingsegments such as premium and young consumers. If AXP is able to accelerate booking growth, then we would expectenhancements to the bank’s earnings power and stock price. AXP has a strong management team and proven track record of Company-Specific Negative Risks: Excess returns have increased competition in the space, which could threaten AXP's marketshare if attractive rewards and promo offers from competitors draw customers away. AXP has been an outperformer on creditdue to its higher-income customer base, but should the environment worsen and credit quality deteriorate, especially in some If the impact on the company from any of these factors proves to be greater or less than we anticipate, it could prevent thestock from achieving our target price or cause our target price to be materially outperformed. If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the detailsof the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONThe research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designated by “AC” in the author block or (ii) listed in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. If multiple ACanalysts are designated in the author block, each analyst is certifying with respect to the entire research report other than(a) content attributable to another AC certifying analyst listed in bold alongside the content and (b) views expressed solelywith respect to a specific issuer which are attributable to another AC certifying analyst identified in the price charts orrating history tables for that issuer shown below. Each of these analysts certify, with respect to the sections of the report IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Within the past 12 months, Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates has acted as manager or co-manager of an offering ofsecurities of American Express Company.Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates has received compensation for investment banking services provided within the Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates expects to receive or