2026年第三季度全球宏观经济动态：美国伊朗停火与油价下行的影响及多因素交织

Crosscurrents Policymakers will welcome the loweroil prices, which have curbed someof the risks to growth and inflation… …but there are other powerful forcesat play, the effects of which will beuneven around the world… …with AI playing a key role, as wellas El Niño effects on food, and risksaround securing a final US-Iran deal Play video withJanet Henry Executivesummary Ceasefire extended, lower oil, but what about a final deal? The signing by the US and Iran of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to extend the ceasefireand lay aframework for future nuclear negotiations leaves many important questions unanswered.Material risks persist. Even assuming the US-Iran talks on the nuclear programme and other stickingpoints proceed as planned,it is far from clear what the new normal in the Strait of Hormuz will looklike. Already Iran has indicated there will be no return to the pre-war status quo. Nonetheless, the rapid drop in the Brent oil price to around USD80/b in response to the 60-dayceasefire extension and the commitment to re-open the Strait–assuming it is sustainable–wouldlimit the downside risks to growth and limit some of the upside risks toinflationand be inline with ourcentral case scenario for the global economy. We have been assuming that Hormuz traffic and Gulfoutput would gradually restart in June, and a return to near-normal system-level production and flowswould occur by end-Q3 2026. Energy prices have fallen Crosscurrents The pace at which the Strait re-opens will not be the sole influence on the global economy in2026-27, even if it is the single biggest one. There are also other powerful forces moving in differentdirections at the very same time,which could have very uneven effects: in particular the AI-relatedexport and investment boom which we discuss onpages 24-32and the risks to agricultural outputand prices from severe El Niño weather conditions which we examineonpages33-39. Fiscal policywill also have varying impacts on the growth trajectory in 2026-27. Consumer spending to soften… In terms of the economic implications of the supply shock from the Middle East so far, the clearestimpact has been an auto-fuel-driven rise in headline inflation and higher input costs, whether fromcrude, diesel, jetfuel and various gas derivatives for which prices, while off their highs, are still 30%or so higher than pre-conflictlevels. Headline inflation has pickedup… This has all hit confidence and squeezed margins and disposable incomes, though the impact on thelimited available consumer data for Q2 suggests no sharp downturn. In the major economies we areso far seeing a familiar pattern of sluggish spending by households in China,weighed down by theongoing property sector headwinds and limited employment prospects, and ongoing resilience in theUS, where the income squeeze has been offset by higher tax rebatesand ongoing wealth effectsfrom the surge in tech prices. …squeezing real incomes Globally, consumer spending appears set to soften further over the next couple of quarters given thesqueeze on real wages and, for those reliant on credit, tighter financial conditions even as someareas of investment–particularly AI,but also increasingly energy infrastructure spending–hold upwell. …and, El Niño means food prices are still a big risk Falling pump prices have mostly stabilisedconsumer and businessconfidenceat a low level,but therisks surroundingfood price inflationpersist. Diesel costs have already hindered agricultural outputin parts of Asia and future harvests in some economies will beaffectedby lower yields as theplanting season was hit by the sharp rise in fertiliser and diesel prices in March and April. There will still be some lagged effects,but nowthe potential food inflation story stems from thesevere El Niño weather phenomenon,which has the potential to push up inflation materially in H22026 and into 2027 in many emerging economies, including the likes of India and Brazil. Evenless-exposedadvanced economies could beaffectedby the higher imported foodpricesas well as higherpackaging costs given plastic prices. AI surge is potentially huge but uneven… More positively from a growth perspective, if the energy price shock now fades, as the markets seemto beassuming, theAI boomis set to continue. The relative impacts of the capex, industrialproduction, export, profits and wealth effects between economies will vary enormously, though theremight be scope for usage growth to become more widespread in the coming years. AI is having a big impact ongrowth… GDP in Taiwan and the US is set to continue to be lifted the most from the AI boom, but otherexporters will too. The enormous investment in the whole AI ecosystem that has continued to driveworld trade growth even against a backdrop of tariffs, bilateral trade frictions, and an enormoussupply shock. Our forecasts show slower, but still positive, growth in exports for most countries and aclear electronics-driven divide between Asia and