尿素周报：农需启动但分散，关注出口动态

市场要闻与重要数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1735元/吨（-1）；河南小颗粒市场价1800元/吨（+0）；山东小颗粒市场价1810元/吨（+0）；江苏小颗粒市场价1830元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤1100元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差75元/吨（+1）；河南尿素基差65元/吨（+1）；江苏尿素基差95元/吨（+1）；尿素生产利润35.0元/吨（+0.0）；出口利润906.9元/吨（+10.1）。 供应端：截至2026-06-28，企业产能利用率90.32%（+1.08%）；企业厂内库存为113.4万吨（+4.8）；港口库存为14.5万吨（-0.5）。 需求端：截至2026-06-28，复合肥产能利用率32.22%（+0.20%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为59.52%（+2.0%）；尿素企业预收订单天数5.00日（+0.0）。 市场分析 新单成交放缓，现货价格松动。2026年3季度普通尿素行业自律指导价出台，整体上调100-210元/吨不等。近期出口政策调控灵活，市场反应跟随，关注后续动态。国内供应端，尿素开工小幅回升，同比高位。需求端，中部地区玉米肥逐步启动，关注后续水稻、玉米用肥采购节奏；复合肥开工因山东河南部分转产小麦肥，负荷小幅提升；三聚氰胺开工小幅提升，终端进入消费淡季，对原料尿素维持刚需采购。当前出口采购情绪谨慎，农需虽有跟进但未形成持续合力，厂内库存累库，港口库存小幅波动。原料成本仍有抬升预期。当前出口利润仍在，预计出口窗口期内备货叠加夏季用肥需求，将对尿素价格形成支撑，后市关注出口预期兑现情况及下游采购节奏。 策略单边：震荡跨期：UR09-01逢低正套跨品种：无 风险出口政策变动、下游采购情绪 目录 一、价格与价差.........................................................................................................................................3二、上游供应............................................................................................................................................5三、下游需求............................................................................................................................................6四、尿素库存............................................................................................................................................7 图表 图1：尿素小颗粒山东市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图2：尿素小颗粒河南市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图3：尿素主力合约价格走势....................................................................................................................................................3图4：尿素01合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图5：尿素05合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图6：尿素09合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图7：1-5价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图8：5-9价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图9：9-1价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图10：尿素山东主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图11：尿素河南主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图12：尿素江苏主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图13：尿素周度产量..................................................................................................................................................................5图14：尿素产能利用率..............................................................................................................................................................5图15：尿素气制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图16：尿素煤制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图17：尿素生产成本..................................................................................................................................................................5图18：尿素生产利润..................................................................................................................................................................5图19：复合肥开工率..................................................................................................................................................................6图20：三聚氰胺开工率..............................................................................................................................................................6图21：尿素待发订单天数..........................................................................................................................................................6图22：中国小颗粒FOB...........................................................................................................