尿素周报：出口利好消退，农需逐步进入淡季

市场要闻与重要数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1728元/吨（-9）；河南小颗粒市场价1780元/吨（-10）；山东小颗粒市场价1760元/吨（-20）；江苏小颗粒市场价1780元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差32元/吨（-11）；河南尿素基差52元/吨（-1）；江苏尿素基差52元/吨（+9）；尿素生产利润230.0元/吨（-20.0）；出口利润963.6元/吨（+8.1）。 供应端：截至2025-08-08，企业产能利用率82.0%（-1.6%）；企业厂内库存为88.8万吨（-3.0）；港口库存为48.3万吨（-1.0）。 需求端：截至2025-08-08，复合肥产能利用率41.5%（+2.8%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为61.1%（+2.8%）；尿素企业预收订单天数6.5日（+0.4）。 市场分析 印度招标与出口相关政策超市场预期，提振尿素盘面反弹，但随着宏观利好消退，尿素重回基本面交易。尿素产量高位运行，上游库存同比仍偏高位。随着新增产能不断投产，未来尿素供应仍将持续走高。下游农业需求进入淡季，南方地区农业用肥逐渐结束，下游工业需求逐步提升，复合肥进入秋季肥生产季节，开工率有所提升，但维持刚需采购。煤制尿素利润尚可，成本端支撑偏弱。8月为出口窗口期，尿素出口持续进行，港口库存窄幅波动运行，预计出口量变动不大，关注出口相关信息对市场情绪的影响。 策略 单边：中性；跨期：09-01反套；跨品种：无。 风险 装置检修与复产情况、库存变动情况、尿素出口影响 目录 一、价格与价差.........................................................................................................................................3二、上游供应............................................................................................................................................5三、下游需求............................................................................................................................................6四、尿素库存............................................................................................................................................7 图表 图1：尿素小颗粒山东市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图2：尿素小颗粒河南市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图3：尿素主力合约价格走势....................................................................................................................................................3图4：尿素01合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图5：尿素05合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图6：尿素09合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图7：尿素01-05合约价差走势...................................................................................................................................................4图8：尿素05-09合约价差走势...................................................................................................................................................4图9：尿素09-01合约价差走势...................................................................................................................................................4图10：尿素山东主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图11：尿素河南主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图12：尿素江苏主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图13：尿素周度产量..................................................................................................................................................................5图14：尿素开工率......................................................................................................................................................................5图15：尿素气制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图16：尿素煤制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图17：尿素生产成本..................................................................................................................................................................5图18：尿素生产利润..................................................................................................................................................................5图19：复合肥开工率..................................................................................................................................................................6图20：三聚氰胺开工率..............................................................................................................................................................6图21：尿素待发订单天数..........................................................................................................................................................6图22：中国小颗粒FOB..............................................................................................................................................................6图23：中国大颗粒FOB.....................................................