伯恩斯坦：关于第一太阳能公司（FSLR-US）的覆盖报告——基于232政策的投资视角

Sunaina Ocalan.+1 917 344 8503sunaina.ocalan@bernsteinsg.comAnshika Bajpai+1 917 344 8306 Americas Energy & TransitionFirst Solar, Inc. RatingUnderperform Price Target FSLR 217.00 USD First Solar: The 232 trade - pushbacks to our initiation We initiated last week on Power and Energy Transition, and we’ve got some push back onour Underperform on FSLR, mainly around how we’re not giving them credit for Section232 tariffs, or a possible 45X extension. We believe the bull case hinges on:1) Section 232tariffs on polysilicon imports that would limit solar panel imports into the US and henceallow FSLR to maintain or raise ASPs and not lose market share. 2) The extension of 45x taxcredits beyond 2032, allowing FSLR to offset costs and maintain current margins beyond our Close Date24 Jun 2026FSLR Close Price (USD)248.36Price Target (USD)217.00Upside/(Downside)(13)%52-Week Range320.95/147.30SPX7,357.49FYEDecDiv YieldNAMarket Cap (USD) (M)26,644EV (USD) (M)24,805 1 - We believe that the impact of these tariffs (if imposed) on FSLR would be higher marketshare of U.S. solar shipments, as manufacturers of C-Si panels could raise ASPs to makeup for the tariff costs. In our initiation we modeled FSLR’s shipments gaining market shareto 2030, growing from ~30% today to almost 50% late in the decade. We don’t assume ahigher market share AND an increase in ASPs, since the increase in ASPs could result in a 2 - We model 45x tax credits getting phased out beginning in 2030 as stated by currentpolicy. We value the 45x credit stream through 2032 at a 9% discount rate. At $111/shtax credits make up ~50% of our valuation. We are watching for news around the potential 3 - We believe that utility scale solar is growing in the U.S. We grow FSLR’s market share ofthis growing market. Our longer term view of thin film panels is that the moat is weak since Perovskite solar cellsis the next generation technology, and believe that Si-based perovskite technology is likelyto commercialize faster, adding competitive technology risk. We give them credit for theircontracted backlog (worth ~$10/sh in our view) and value the potential for more TOPCon Investment ImplicationsWe rate FSLR Underperform with a price target of $217/sh. DETAILS We believe the bull case hinges on the following assumptions: 1. Section 232 tariffs on polysilicon imports that would limit solar panel imports into the US and hence allow FSLR to maintainor raise ASPs and not lose market share. 2. The extension of 45x tax credits beyond 2032, allowing FSLR to offset costs and maintain current margins beyond ourmodeled phase-out year. 3. A growing utility scale solar market in the U.S. Where we differ: 1 - In July 2025 the department of commerce launched an investigation into potential section 232 tariffs on imports ofpolysilicon and derivative products. We note that the decision was expected in June 2026 but has been delayed to August.We believe that the impact of these tariffs (if imposed) on FSLR would be higher market share of U.S. solar shipments, asmanufacturers of C-Si panels could raise ASPs to make up for the tariff costs. In our initiation we modeled FSLR’s shipments EXHIBIT 1:We model FSLR’s shipments gaining market share to 2030, growing from ~30% today to almost 50%late in the decade. We therefore see limited upside from tariffs unless FSLR also raises ASPs, which could hurtshipments. 2 - We model 45x tax credits getting phased out beginning in 2030 as stated by current policy. We value the 45x credit streamthrough 2032 at a 9% discount rate. At $111/sh tax credits make up ~50% of our valuation. We are watching for news aroundthe potential extension of tax credits, and will check and adjust as things change. EXHIBIT 4:However, as tax credits begin to get phasedout starting in 2030, margins will need to improve tomake up for the lost cost offset 3 - We believe that utility scale solar is growing in the U.S. We model installations as per the EIA database of planned late stageprojects, and add a gross up to capacity 3-5 years out, to account for historical underestimation of longer term capacity adds.We grow FSLR’s market share of this growing market. EXHIBIT 7:We gross up solar capacity that is historically underestimated by the EIA database, but at a morecautious pace than historical data implies, to account for macro headwinds such as potential tariffs that wouldallow FSLR to gain market share We believe that even with growing share of a growing market, FSLR’s margins would need to improve in order to make up forthe loss of 45x tax credits after 2030 and justify the current valuation. We give them credit for their contracted backlog (worth ~$10/sh in our view) and value the potential for more TOPCon licensing deals at $9/sh. EXHIBIT 8:We value FSLR on a SOTP basis and arrive at a TP of $217/sh A quick note on the tech moat: FSLR Thin film technology CdTe has benefits over C-Si: manufacturing of CdTe panels is more streamlined (and faster)