周度媒体观察：当持续时间跨越数个世纪

Christophe Cherblanc+41 582 723 540christophe.cherblanc@bernsteinsg.comIan Moore+1 917 344 8434ian.moore@bernsteinsg.comAnnick Maas+44 20 7676 6683annick.maas@bernsteinsg.comMark Shmulik+1 917 344 8508mark.shmulik@bernsteinsg.com and humanities and social sciences (there is no reliable numbergiven definition differences on sub editions of flagship titles). Aswe have written in past reports, the core mission of STM publishingis less about “disseminating” content than “controlling the quality”of published content, and it is fascinating to observe the practiceof editorial pre-publication peer review was established in 1665through a “Committee on papers”, reflecting the critical need forthird-party objective assessment on narrow subjects, a capacityimpossible to maintain in house by any publisher. In an AI-drivenworld, we note the need for quality control is “rising” to cope with an by Christophe Cherblanc As investors sensibly challenge the relevance of media (and manyother sectors’) business models in an AI-driven world, the issue of“terminal” value has never been so prominent. This coincides with aLT trend of corporate lifecycle shortening as shown below in Exhibit1. We first addressed the issue in our - Weekend Media Blast: Whyperpetuity is shorter than you think on 6 March by unpacking a 100-year DCF framework (yes really), demonstrating that for a standard“run-of-the-mill” company the post year 50 value did not matter STM publishingqualifies as a very long-duration sector withthe very first journal launched in 1665 by the Royal Society(Philosophical Transactions turned 361 this year...), and otherflagship titles launched more than 100 years ago (Nature in 1869,or Science in 1880 notably). Journals were initially few and farbetween as books were preferred, but expanding print capacities From a duration perspective,Trade showsare harder to place.On one hand, they are probably the “oldest” media models, withfairs taking place in the antiquity and the Middle Age, serving asessentially unchanged “raison d’être” i.e., providing a forum not onlyfor trade and commerce, but also for industry networking. On the the expositions set up as of the mid 19thcentury, reflecting focuson verticals or specific categories (pre digital saw professionalpublishers launch events on segments also covered by professionalmagazines, now long disposed or discontinued). A specific industryfeature is a portfolio rotation (launches, cloning, discontinuations)reflecting sectors' emergence /fading, which implies an averageevent lifecycle of 10–15 years (there are some much longer majorshows such as the property MIPIM Cannes show run since 1990). Source: The Lancet EXHIBIT 8:Changinglay outs andEXHIBIT 9:...in the1980s...EXHIBIT 10:...in the2020s Classified Adsis yet another long-duration segment. It pre-datesprinting, as notices handwritten by scribes were nailed to postor walls in England in the 1600s. However, the first “proper” ads go back to the early 18th century in N. America, when 23 weeklynewspapers across 11 of 13 colonies carried classifieds ads ontheir back pages. While the inventory of homes has of coursegrown in Oyster Bay since the initial 1704 insert (...and the BostonNews Letter has disappeared), the need for an “information”clearing house on searched goods (or jobs, love partners etc...)remains critical. The combination of easy to itemize, manageable,highly structured inventories (for the anecdote there are now 57 From a duration perspective,Musicprobably sits closer to Tradeshows. While love for music has been universal (no pun intended)for millenniums, the Music industry itself differs from previoussegments as : 1/ it is relatively youngish and only emerged in the1920-1930s with sound recording and broadcasting technologies(vertical integration played a part hence mentions of Gramophonesor Radio Corporation of America in labels which still exist, or Philipspast ownership of Polygram, now part of UMG) ; 2/ the duration ofits content is closely linked to age cohorts as one’s taste are usuallyshaped by songs released in their early teens (age of discoveryfollowed by going out, dancing etc...at a time those songs are stillin their prime). As highlighted in our 28 Nov “Why my Associatedoes not know Earth, Wind & Fire...but likes France Gall” Blast, This EXHIBIT 6:First“advertisement” to sell orlet a house in America wasplaced in 1704. Location was Source: The Boston News Letter - OysterBay, NY (Est 1704) EXHIBIT 11:Why music IPportfolio requires periodicrefresh: Songs have a longduration, but eventually EXHIBIT 12:...getting to thetop is hard, staying there iseven harder Zooming out, we find these four above average duration categoriesshare a common advatange: the ability to address “evergreen”demands. Also taking into account the need to continuously adapttheir offerings, our tentative fundamental order of preference Source: The significant stat, Bernsteinanalysis Source: The Pudding Project BERNSTEIN TIC