全球宏观展望：长期看周期，短期看自满

complacency The Q3 outlook hinges on a strong, broadening US earningscycleoffsetby already-optimistic market pricing. While globalgrowth – led by US profits, AI-driven capex, and a firm jobsmarket – remains intact, higher bond yields and richer Ajay Rajadhyaksha(i)+1 212 412 7669ajay.rajadhyaksha@barclays.comBCI, US Amrut Nashikkar(i)+1 212 412 1848amrut.nashikkar@barclays.comBCI, US The US profit cycle remains the dominant force in global macro. Earnings are broadeningbeyond mega-cap tech, supporting hiring, capex and consumption. But markets are already Central banks such as the ECB and BoJ will likely tighten policy at the margin, but we expectthe Fed to stay on hold for the rest of the year. Bonds remain the most challenged asset class,as fiscal and inflation profiles are worsening globally. For yet another quarter, we prefer The semiconductor complex now represents a concentrated macro risk if sentiment turns.But order books are full well into 2027, vendor-financing concerns are exaggerated, andforward multiples reasonable. There may come a point at which the AI infrastructure build- Macro conditions are supportive but not overheating: the US labor market is firming withoutwage-driven inflation, and consumption shouldn’t collapse despite a low savings rate. Europeand China are weaker, but neither is collapsing. Our economists forecast the global economy The market outlook for the third quarter rests on a tension: a (mainly US) profit cycle thatcontinues to deliver against a market that has absorbed much of the good news. How thattension is resolved will determine financial markets in the coming months. We think the weight Exhibit A is corporate earnings, the single most important variable in markets today. Aneconomy where profits are expanding 22% y/y (consensus for FY26), such as the US, does notroll over quietly. It pulls the labor market forward, sustains capex, and underwrites consumerspending even when other indicators flash caution. The question is not whether earnings are This is a Special Report that is not an equity or a debt research report under U.S. FINRA Rules2241-2242. (i)This author is a debt research analyst in the Fixed Income, Currencies and CommoditiesResearch department and is neither an equity research analyst nor subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to analysts who produce debt research Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 8.Completed: 24-Jun-26, 18:23 GMTReleased: 25-Jun-26, 04:00 GMT low US savings rate, central banks that are no longer easing, and a bond market demanding Earnings: No longer a tech story S&P 500 earnings growth was 19% y/y in the second quarter. That alone would be noteworthy.But the composition is as significant. The mega-cap tech names delivered 30% growth –impressive, but by now largely expected. The surprise was the rest of the technology sector,where EPS surged 50% y/y, a pace that suggests the monetization of AI is now well past the Margins are expanding in materials, helped by the AI infrastructure build-out. Financials arebenefiting from a rising equity market and robust deal activity.Aftera prolonged stretch of post-pandemic margin compression, healthcare is beginning to see operating leverage return. Whenthe earnings cycle broadens thus, it becomes self-reinforcing: sector-level profit growth drives The risk is that the world is already priced for it. At current index levels, markets are alreadyexpecting healthy, double-digit EPS growth in 2027. If margins compress – whether from higherinput costs, rising borrowing costs, or a deceleration in AI spending – investors will start to getnervous. We do not think that is likely in Q3, or for the rest of 2026. Order books in key sectors(especially the all-important semiconductor vertical) remain full, corporate guidance has been The US labor market: Firming, not overheating If earnings are the engine of this cycle, the US labor market is the transmission mechanism –and it seems to be working. May payrolls surprised to the upside for the third straight month.The three-month moving average of nonfarm payrolls is now up nearly 200k from the threemonths ending in February. Job gains are more broad-based across sectors, including The natural worry is that a tightening labor market feeds back into inflation through wages. It isa concern we believe is premature. Neither the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker nor theEmployment Cost Index is flashing the kind of acceleration that would force the Fed's hand. Theunemployment rate has largely hovered around 4.3-4.4% for almost a year, instead of droppingquickly. This is a labor market that has stabilized, but not one that is running away from the We are nowhere near that. What we have instead is an economy generating jobs at a decentpace, but with enough slack to keep unit labor costs from spiraling. That is a favorableconfiguration, not a threatening one. For investors, the imp