2026年第一季度海外扩张加速

CompanyYeahka RatingBuy 11 June 2026Date Forecast Change AsiaChina Banking / FinanceOther Financial Services Overseas expansion accelerates Valuation & Risks Johnny Xie, CPAResearch Analyst+852-220-36141 Overseas expansion accelerates in 1Q26Yeahka's 1Q26 operating data reveals accelerated overseas expansion, with Gross Payment Volume (GPV) surging to RMB 2.4bn – a fourfold increase from 1Q25. Thestrong growth is a direct result of the overseas local team's deeper marketpenetration through tailored industrial client solutions and expanded partnercollaborations. Consequently, overseas contributions to the group's profit haverisen to 10%, and our estimates indicate overseas TPV contribution enlarged from Domestic TPV stabilizes, overseas weighting drives GPM expansionWe anticipatestabilized GPVin the domestic market. Yeahka's domestic GPV has already shown a positive growth turnaround since 2H25. We foresee this domesticstabilitycontinuing,supported by a moderate recovery in China's offline Crucially, an increasing weighting ofoverseas payments is expected to graduallycontribute to GPM expansion. Despite overseas GPV currently accounting for only0.2% of the total, its potential is significant. The overseas market offers a Management's near-term priority is to penetrate and gain market share in HongKong and Singapore, and the company is also applying for a license to enterMalaysia. We project this increasing overseas business weight will likely help Yeahka's blended take rate for its payment business has bottomed out, risingfrom 11.5bps in FY24 to 12.4bps in FY25. This improvement stems from thecompany's proactive shift away from aggressive pricing competition and its 11 June 2026Other Financial Services in FY25. The company plans to onboard more less price-sensitive payment clientsin FY26 to secure higher fee rates. AI solution adoption helps margin recovery and merchant stickness AI technology is now deeply integrated across Yeahka's business lines, yieldingtangible benefits. For instance, leveraging AI in production and business processesreduced operating costs by 13% in FY25, leading to a 3% improvement in coreEBITDA to 11%. A particularly significant impact is observed in the merchantsolutions business, where AI-generated advertisements have become a key growthdriver. The advertising transaction volume generated by AI surged by 110% HoH, Earnings revisionWe have updated our model for Yeahka, factoring in the latest 1Q26 performance data. Consequently, we are lowering TPV assumptions by 1-9% for FY26-28F dueto continued weakness in domestic consumption. Concurrently, we are slightlynudging up the blended take rate for FY28F forward by 0.1bps, attributing this to anincreased contribution from overseas payments. We are also slightly lowering theoperating margin by 0.2-0.5%, primarily due to (1) a slightly lower than projectedoperating margin in FY25, and (2) anticipating slightly higher costs for overseas Our target price is derived from aprobability-weighted valuation framework,to which we assign a probability weight of60% in a base-case scenario, and20%/20% in a bear- and bull-case scenario,respectively. The base scenario value iscalculated on a DCF model with WACCassumptions including a risk-free rate of2.0% (China 10Y bond yield), a riskpremium of 6%, a beta of 1.3x (historical Having been removed from Stock Connect since September 2025, Southboundstock holding has decreased from ~10% to 4.6%, now nearing pre-2025 levels. Asa result, we anticipate reduced selling pressure on the stock. This, coupled with thecompany's accelerated stock repurchases since late May at prices below HK$6.00,should provide some downside protection. Trading at 7.0x 12mF EV/EBITDA, one Stabilized outlook for domestic payment sector We anticipate Total Payment Volume (TPV) in China's domestic market to stabilizein FY25, supported by several key trends. While retail data since April 2026generally indicates a sustained weak consumption recovery, the 1Q26 showedpositive signs. China's domestic payment sector experienced a moderate recoveryin 1Q26, bolstered by seasonal retail sales and a moderate recovery in inflation.Notably, bankcard consumption surprisingly turned around to positive growth in Source : Wind, PBoC, Deutsche Bank Revisions to our earnings forecasts for 2026E-2028E Key operating charts Source : Company data, Deutsche Bank estimates Source : Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Source : Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank 11 June 2026Other Financial Services Yeahka Reuters: 9923.HKBloomberg: 9923 HK Company Profile Yeahka is a leading payment-based technology platformin China providing payment and business services tomerchants and consumers. The company offers one-stoppayment services, in-store e-commerce services, and Johnny Xie, CPA+852 220 36141johnny.xie@db.com Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request Important Disclosures Required by U.S. Re