2026年第一季度回顾：强劲的每可售房收入（RevPAR）和利润率扩张推动全年表现

BuyAsia Forecast Change China 1Q26 Review: Robust RevPAR andMargin Expansion Power Full-Year SammiXu Research Analyst+852-2203-5415 transitionH World delivered solid 1Q26 results, with revenue increasing by 11.1% YoY (beat DBestimatesby2%),drivenbystrongRevPARtrends(China+3%YoY;overseas+5%YoY)andsustainedmarginimprovementsestablishedsince2025(adj.NPM+3.5 pp). Segment growth was led by a 20.3%YoY increase in the Managed &Franchised(M&F)business,withHWorld China (HWC)M&Frising20.6%YoY;Leased &Owned (L&O)revenuedeclinedby1.4%YoYasHWorldcontinuetoexitL&OhotelsinChina.Overall Chinabusiness(HWC)increasedby12.4%YoY,whileinternationalbusiness (HWI)grewby5.1%YoY The highlight of H World result is the continuous margin expansion: groupadjusted EBITDA surged 24.2%YoY,lifting the adjusted EBITDAmargin to 31.0%(+3.3pp)astheasset-lighttransitionscaledtocontribute50.1%oftotalrevenue(upfrom46.3%in1Q25).Adjustednetprofitgrewbyarobust38.6%YoY(beatDBestimates by 6.6%), expanding theadjusted net marginto 17.9% (vs.14.4% infundamentally driven by the expanding mix of these high-margin, asset-lighthotels,wheretheGrossOperating Profit (GOP)marginforM&Fis40pphigherthanthatofLeased&Operated(L&O)properties. Operational metricsremainedhealthy,withHWCRevPARrising3%YoY-supported by a 4.5%ADR increase from continuous mid-to-high-end hotelupgradesand robust1Q26industrydemand,whichoffseta1.1ppdecline inoccupancy.HWIRevPARgrew5%YoY,withADRup1.6%andoccupancyexpanding by 2.1 pp. Leveraging its asset-light model, H World continued its aggressive networkexpansion,recording360nethoteladditionsinthequarter(537openings,177closures).Thisbroughtthetotalglobal hotelcountundermanagementto13,215,while the robust development pipeline remained solid at 2,894 hotels at the end of1Q26. Hotels / Leisure / GamingH World ThekeyfocusremainsontheRevPARoutlook:Managementnoted a solid trend inApril,thoughLaborDayholidayperformancefellbelowinternalexpectationsdueto traffic dilution from the earlier spring break and Qingming Festival. That said,management believesthe impactof higherfuel surcharges and oilprices is notsevere, given the high EV penetration in China. Full-year RevPAR guidance ismaintained at slightly positive (0-2%),while 2Q26 remains on track to achieve thistarget (we forecast 1.3% YoY growth for 2Q26) openings and 600-700 closures. Within the development pipeline, managementhighlighted an increasing concentration in Tier 1 and 2 cities alongside acontinuous commitment to hotel upgrades; notably,mid-to-high-end hotelsoutperformedeconomyproperties in1Q26duetostrongbrandingofHWorld'sportfolio and ongoing product upgrades. Non-hotel operations: H World's other revenue, which comprises technicalservices,procurementplatformsofhotelsupplychain,and HuazhuMall hassurgedtoRMB240millionin1Q26(upfromRMB107millionin1Q25),alevelmanagementexpectsto comfortably sustain above RMB 200 million going forward.Consequently,the expansion of the 'other revenue'segment will serve as a keygrowth driver for H World in 2026. MaintainourBuyratingonHWorldwithTPofUS$56/HK$43.8Webelievetheindustrybottomedin4Q25andisnowenteringastructuralupcycle. H World is well-positioned to capitalize on this recovery and the ongoing marketconsolidation as a premierlong-term compounder.Beyond macrotailwinds,thecompany's internal catalysts, including its continuous product upgrades, highmargin asset light transition, and a strategic mix shift toward mid-to-high-endhotels,shouldhelpdriveamoreresilientRevPARoutlookcomparedtotheindustry.We expect HWorldto outpace industrybenchmarks,withhigh visibilityforrobustdouble-digit net profit growth. Werevisedupouradjustednetprofitforecastby2%toRMB6.2bn tofactorinabetter-than-expectedmargintrend.Thecurrentstockpriceimpliesa16.7x2026P/E,whichweviewas attractiveforalong-term compoundercapable ofdelivering double-digit EPS growth over the next three years.OurDcF-basedtargetpriceofUS$56/HK$43.8impliesa21xone-yearforwardP/E Investorfeedback Basedon our client discussions,themarketremains highly confident inHWorld'ssuperiorexecutiontonavigatethehotel businesscycle,asthecompanycontinuestodeliversolid resultsthroughasset-lightmarginand hotelexpansion.Theprimaryconcern is near-termdatavolatility: investors are currently assessing the impactofhigherfuelsurchargesontravelincentives,aworryamplifiedbyhigh-frequencyflight traffic data turning negative since May. June also marks a relatively softseason for business travel,which-combined with rising travel costs-maypressure hotel pricing during low-demand periods. In addition, the upcomingsummer holiday represents a critical observation window, as elevated airfarescould promptcost-sensitivefamilytravelersto scalebacktheirtravel spendingandreduce the budget on hotel if the flight tickets remain expensive. Hotels / Leisure/GamingH World expectedin4Q26.Thisreflectsananticipatedtwo-quarterimpactontraveldemandstemming from highertravel costs due to the recent surge infuel prices. Hotels / Leisure /GamingH