中国房地产：5月全国数据疲软但关键城市出现部分复苏

MayNBS:acceleratingcompletion&RElretreat;startsdripongoing-May-alone: +852-2501-2438griffin.chan@citi.comCindy Li [1]Starts-25%yoy(Apr:-27%)to40msmGFA,aroundMay'03level.[2]Completion-20%(Apr:-19%)to22msmGFA,~May'06level.[3]REI-25%(Apr:-20%),~May'12level.[4]Primary/secondarypricesmomupinT1cities(+0.2%/+0.4%mom),stableinT2cities(-0.1%/-0.2%),atwideneddropinT3cities;16/10citiesseemomgrowthonnew/secondaryhomeASP(Apr:14/12cities);[5]Residentialsales-8%yoy(Apr-6%),GFA sold-12% (Apr:-9%).[6] Completed but unsold inventory-0.4%yoy &inventorywithin3years-2.8%.[7] CREIS300-citiesMay landsalesGFA/value-26%/-9%(Apr:-28%/-40%);MoF4M26landsales revenue-27%yoy.MayMacro:PPlbeat(+3.9%yoy,Apr+2.8%);strong intrades(export+19%inUS$);stabilizedcredit(newRmbloanRmb520bn,from-Rmb10bninApr);butmissinretail(-0.6%firstnegativeprintpostCovid)&FAl(-7.0%) +852-2501-2710cindy.li@citi.com Weak national butkey cities stabilizing;land marketwarm-up;volume growth in5-6key cities sustaining into2HUnlike the national data that remains underongoingrecoverywithextensioninthreeareas:(i)tosomeT2citiesfromjustT1citiesafter industries upgrades; (ii)to primarymarket from secondary,and to upgradeproducts from smaller/older units but we see more new supply on luxury home(slowersell-thrufromMay); (ii)toa broader set ofpropertyfirms(5M26:5 namesachievedyoygrowth).PerWIND&CREIS:inthefirstweekofJun,Secondaryvolume+25%yoy,accelerated from May and Apr(+23%/ +10%),to 27.6k units per week (18large cities); Newhome sales+29%yoy,also pacedup(May/ Apr:+1.5%/+8%),witha 3-month high volume of 22.4k units (34 cities). Secondary listings in 39 cities-1.8%YTD.Givena reduced land supply in keycities in5M26(-31%yoy), we startedseeing hot land market in somekeycities (e.g.SZ,SH)but slightlymore land supplyinkeycitiesin2H26.Giventhehighbasein1H25whilelowerbasein2H25,weviewtheyoysalesrecoverymomentumcouldcontinueinto2H26E. Policy:renewal progressing;supportivetotherecoverymomentum-TheStateCouncil issued 5-Year Plan for urban renewal (28-May).Related central budgetaryinvestment in2026 isRmb97bn (+Rmb17bnor+21%yoy),and another Rmb160bnfrom ultra-long-term specialCGB (+Rmb25bn or+18.5%yoy).Locally,[1] Renewal:HN set housingvoucherresettlement rules (use within 6 months etc.); [2] Housingprovident fund regulation optimized at GZ/ CC/ZJG etc.; [3] Trade-in program isfacilitatedbygovt of GZ/Suzhou etc.Weviewthis round of local easing is comingamidmarket recoverytoreinforcetheupturn&householdexpectations. upgradedtoa positive sectorviewinlate-April (link)givenpositivevolumedata.Thesector rallied 25-30% within two weeks of our upgrade, prompting some profit-booking in Jun-Jul.We reaffirmour view of a volume recovery across the 5-6keycities;&seebothnewhome&secondaryvolumes inkeycitiessustainingyoygrowthwithfewersellers.Hence,weexpectAugusttobeagoodtimeforentryafterpullbackonweak1H26results.Ourstockselectionfocuseson‘25landpurchasegrowthandample‘26Eresources.Toppicks:COLl,Jinmao,CRL,PolyProperty&Beike.WeareincreasinglypositiveonC&Dafteritsproductupgrades&expansioninSZinJun. SeeAppendixA-1forAnalystCertification,ImportantDisclosuresandResearchAnalystAffiliations. Notfordistribution inthePeople'sRepublic of China,excludingthe HongKong Special Administrative Regionand QualifiedForeign Institutional Investors. MayNBS:WidenedDeclineinCompletion & REl; Starts Drop25%yoyWeaknationaldatabutseepartialrecoveryinkeycities May26SingleMonthREl-24.5%(Apr:-20.1%) Source: NBS,Citi Research Starts,CompletionandLandInvestment(NBS) 2026 Citigroup Inc.No redistribution without Citigroup's written permissionSource: NBS, Citi Research 2026 Citigroup Inc.Noredistribution without Citigroup's wrttenpermissionSource: NBS, Citi Research Source:CREIS, Citi Research Estimates Source:MoF,CitiResearchEstimates MinistryofFinancegovernmentlandsalesrevenue Source:CRIC, Citi Research Note:unsold new homes with pre-sales approval(completedandunderconstruction)for80cities Source: CRIC, Citi Research HomePricelndex(NBS7O-Cities) 2026 Citigroup Inc.No redistribution without Citigroup's written permissionSource:NBS, Citi Research Source:Datastream,Citi ResearchEstimates Source:Datastream,Citi ResearchEstimates of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside theUS+1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 Theresearchanalystsprimarily responsibleforthepreparation andcontentofthis research reportareeither(i)designated analystsaredesignatedintheauthorblock,eachanalystiscertifyingwith respecttotheentireresearchreportotherthan(a)contentattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalystlistedinboldalongsidethecontentand(b)viewsexpressedsolelyratinghistorytablesforthatissuershownbelow.Eachoftheseanalysts certify,withrespecttothesectionsofthereportforwhichtheyareresponsible:(1)thattheviewsexpressedthereinaccuratelyreflecttheirpersonalviewsabouteachissuerandsecurityreferencedandwereprepared inanindependentmanner,includingwithrespecttoCitigroup GlobalMarketsInc.and its affiliates;and (2)