美国多行业及电气设备行业首次覆盖：机遇与挑战

US Multis Initiation: Thrills and Chills We are initiating coverage of the US Multi-Industrials and Electrical Equipmentsector.We evaluate eleven companies across five sub-categories: (i) data centerpower and cooling, (ii) HVAC, (iii) industrial automation of various flavors, (iv) industrialconglomerates, and (v) Otis Worldwide which kind of fits into its own unique bucket. Varun Govindaraj+1 917 344 8543varun.govindaraj@bernsteinsg.com The Multi-Industrials landscape has changed significantly since Bernstein last covered the space. A flurry of business unit divestment, spins, and M&A has fundamentallyaltered the topography of the sector. Data center build outs have reweighed where capitalis flowing. Many previously “non-core” businesses that were spun-off to allow their parentsto focus on the core have become large and successful in their own right. Vertiv, nVent,Carrier, and Otis all fit that bucket. And the “cycle” that drives the narrative of the sector alsoseems to be loosening its grip; many of the names under coverage trade at peak earnings +peak multiples (which is hardly what one would consider cyclical). We are positive on our data center power / cooling names and rate themOutperform(Vertiv and nVent). In both cases our price targets imply ~30 - 40% upside. We believeboth these companies have real technical moats; the markets they play in will eventually seegrowth taper, but both companies are well-positioned for when this happens. Among HVAC players, we areOutperform on Trane Technologies; they’re great operatorsand well-integrated into the data center cooling landscape (both white and grey space).We also likeJohnson Controls and rate them Outperform; their lean transformation isshowing strong results, and they’re supported by strong chiller tailwinds near-term. We rateCarrier Market-Perform; there are multiple competing forces that muddy the company’soverall story (DC positive, US resi negative, Viessmann mixed). Among Automation names,we rate Emerson Outperform, withRockwell andHoneywell Market-Perform. We think there are multiple tailwinds supporting Emerson’sprocess automation business and like the outlook for Test and Measurement. Rockwell isa great company, but the market seems to have largely priced their story so we think near-term upside is limited. For Honeywell, we will be covering their “RemainCo.” once aerospacespins in June; we think the stock is still a “show me” story. Among industrial conglomerates,we rate Parker-Hannifin Outperform and 3M Underperform. Parker-Hannifin (PH) is an outstandingly well-run company, and we expectthe quality compounding to continue. FG + Circor are both great deals; there’s limited roomfor execution error but given their track record with M&A we are not worried. We don’t think3M’s R&D engine is fixed and worry PFAS is still an overhang. Finally, we rateOtis Worldwide Outperform. The stock has been punished for missingexpectations last year, but their strategy shift is showing results. We think these should startmaterializing more strongly in financials towards the back half of this year. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS DATA CENTER EQUIPMENT We rate Vertiv (VRT) Outperform with a target price of $416.The company makes data center power and coolingequipment, arguably the only pure-play with scale; Stock has been a major outperformer, up between 25 – 30x over the last 3years. We’re materially ahead of the sell side on earnings estimates (~15% ahead on FY28 revenues). Most of this is driven bydivergence in the topline, although we broadly agree with the street on margin expectations (with incremental margins in themid 30s). Four factors contribute to our belief here; (i) evolution of power / cooling tech. where VRT sits on the bleeding edge,(ii) addition of capacity to help convert backlog AND attract orders, (iii) increased cost of failure favoring incumbents like Vertiv,(iv) and the ever-increasing usage of / demand for AI models. Model efficiency growth is the main longer-term “watch out”. Ifmodels get too efficient, the risk is that they just need less power / cooling for the same outcomes. We’ll publish more on this inthe future. We do believe that the stock will eventually down-rate to multiples of ~15-20x seen in service-heavy businesses; weremain comfortable that even if this happens by 2030, Vertiv’s robust earnings power can still drive an attractive baseline price. We rate nVent (NVT) Outperform with a target price of $218.We think the market is mispricing nVent’s data center heavysystems protection business which manifests as tepid growth / margin forecasts; we are ~15% ahead of FY28 consensusEPS estimates. The core of this is in NVT’s CDU technology. They have launched a competitive product and are positioningthemselves as liquid cooling experts going forward. nVent has done an impressive job with partnerships; they are not on thesame level with NVIDIA as Vertiv / Schneider / Eaton, but they are further along than