豪西蒙（Holcim）轻型业务扩张：未被认可的增长、回报与协同驱动因素

Pujarini Ghosh, CFA+44 20 7676 6807pujarini.ghosh@bernsteinsg.com Holcim Ltd Victor Acitores+34 915 893 901victor.acitores@bernsteinsg.com Tobias Fromme+44 20 7676 6875tobias.fromme@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Specialist Sales HOLN.SW Sara Bellenda+44 20 7762 1867sara.bellenda@bernsteinsg.com Holcim: Light side expansion - an unrecognised driver of growth,returns and synergies In this 5thnote of our best-idea series, we deep dive in Holcim’s light side expansion which isoften viewed with skepticism by the market in terms of strategic benefits and synergy potentialwith the heavy side. We believe this is somewhat unfair and think highly of this strategy asit enhances diversification, makes the company less cyclical, and Holcim’s track record ofacquisitions prove that there are significant revenue, cost, delivery synergies to be had. Close Date24 Jun 2026HOLN.SW Close Price (CHF)74.64Price Target (CHF)90.00Upside/(Downside)21%52-Week Range80.60/54.98EDME1,578.05FYEDecDiv Yield2.3%Market Cap (CHF) (M)42,312EV (CHF) (M)46,304 The light-side strategy is fundamentally improving Holcim’s business mix and capitalallocation.Over the past several years, Holcim has systematically exited less attractivecement markets and redeployed capital toward higher-return building solutions categories.The categories Holcim is targeting—roofing, construction chemicals, mortars, etc., typicallygenerate materially higher ROICs than heavy side businesses. We estimate the evolving mixcan drive >900bps of ROCE improvement and ~750bps of ROIC expansion over 2025-30. Distribution, cost and revenue synergies, are often underestimated by the market. AsHolcim broadens its product offering, it can increase wallet share, participate in more phasesof construction, sell increasingly through specification channels with architects/engineers,optimize procurement, etc. This not only helps cross-selling but also improves pricing powerand customer stickiness. Importantly, the strategy also increases exposure to renovation,which is structurally less cyclical than new-build that heavy side is more geared to. Past acquisitions provide tangible evidence that management can successfullyrealize synergies.Our review of Holcim’s North American roofing acquisitions showsEBITDA margins expanding by ~730bps over 2021-25, with ~420bps attributable tosynergies. Similarly, we estimate the PRB acquisition multiple has fallen from ~10x pre-synergy to ~7x by year 3. Looking ahead, we expect the recently acquired Xella, Alkern, etc.to drive meaningful synergies. More broadly, we model approximately CHF180m of M&Asynergies by 2030, contributing around 175bps of group margin expansion. Investment Implications Light side expansion presents rerating opportunity as themarket starts acknowledging and attributing sufficient value to the strategy.We estimate the valuation gap to beCHF 5-10/sh. While we understand this will unwind over time as Holcim progresses withacquisitions and delivers targeted synergies, nevertheless, this as a source of upside. DETAILS In Q1, Holcim, and the European cement names more broadly, derated due to two major events: discussions about potentiallytoning down the EU ETS and the Iran conflict. In February, the stock fell by -14% and extended its losses by another -10% afterthe war erupted. Since then, however, the progress towards a ceasefire and strong Q1 results, as well as positive post-resultsmomentum, have seen Holcim recovering to early January levels (see Exhibit 1). Still, the ETS overhang keeps the stock at ratherdepressed levels and well below its fundamental value, in our view. Throughout June, ahead of the release of the European Commission assessment on ETS in July, investors have started to taketactical positions in European cement as the risk reward appears to be heavily skewed to the upside. As we highlight below, theworst case scenario has been more than baked into the stock price and, if the document proposes any scenario better than theworst case, there will be sizable upside potential. We believe Holcim is the best way to play the European cement theme - notjust for the tactical/short term reason but also in the longer term - and in this series we discuss the various elements: 1.Thesis is 7 charts(see 12 May 2026 - Holcim: Best Idea in 7 charts - Combining short term catalysts with long termfundamental value) 2.Pricing Power- Holcim’s strategic shift to more attractive markets gives them higher pricing power (see 21 May 2026 - Holcim: Pricing power from attractive geographic footprint remains underappreciated - reiterate Outperform(top pick)) 3.LatAmbusiness is ahidden gem, which remains underappreciated (see 8 Jun 2026 - Holcim: LatAm business is anunderappreciated hidden gem) 4.ETS irrelevance- Holcim’s pricing power will remain largely intact irrespective of ETS and decarbonization strategy willlead to a significant margin expansion (see 15 Jun 2026 - Holcim: Mispriced ETS risk drives compelling asymme