XPO公司牛熊交锋：货运行业辩论2026

Bull & Bear — Debating Freight2026 XPO’s service, price and cost performance likely pullingforward 2027 margin targets; service improvements yet to betested in volume upcycle, but we see ample capacity in thenetwork vs. most peers setting up for solid share capture as XPOOVERWEIGHTNorth AmericaTransportationPOSITIVEPrice TargetUSD 250.00Price (04-Jun-26)USD 219.26Potential Upside/Downside+14.0%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research North America TransportationEric Morgan, CFA+1 212 526 9642eric.morgan@barclays.com THE 2026 EXTEL SURVEY IS NOW OPEN Support our industry-leading analysts with 5-Starvotes in this year’s Extel All-America Research Brandon R. Oglenski+1 212 526 8903brandon.oglenski@barclays.com David Zazula, CFA+1 212 526 5108david.zazula@barclays.com View Analysts Vote Now John Dorsett+1 212 526 8487john.dorsett@barclays.com We appreciate your 5 Star Vote in the Airfreight & Surface Transportation category. XPO has driven meaningful improvement in service, yields and margins over the past fewyears; the path forward remains bright as the company appears well positioned to captureshare as demand continues to improve.XPO has taken tangible steps to achieve long-termfinancial targets over the past few years, with LTL operating income and margin improvingnearly 40% and 400bps, respectively, since 2023. The hiring of COO Dave Bates that yearcoincided with a positive inflection in the company’s service metrics and labor productivity, andmanagement has executed on initiatives ranging from linehaul insourcing to driving meaningful company’s ability to maintain improved service levels (and thus share and pricing potential)when the market gets tighter. While most carriers tout significant excess capacity, our recentdeep dive analysis on carrier door counts and other utilization metrics indicate XPO isobjectively well positioned to handle a stronger demand environment, trailing only best-in-class Old Dominion on the key measures (see “Assessing Excess Capacity in LTL” published 19Mar 2026 for more details). Coupled with favorableeffectsfrom higher fuel prices (absentdemand destruction), we expect another year of strong earnings expansion for XPO in 2026 and Bull case:XPO continues to drive claims ratio and other service metrics closer to best-in classlevels, supporting outsized pricing gains. Freight demand continues to accelerate and service atcertain competitors falters, supporting market share gains. Continued labor productivity andnew AI initiatives support further margin expansion, and XPO is able to achieve 2027 financial Bear case:Recent demand improvement proves short-lived, capping XPO's ability to leveragerecent investments and keeping margin improvement primarily an output of price & costproductivity. Competitors add capacity ahead of the ever-elusive upcycle, keeping a lid onpricing power even with stronger service levels and a more disciplined carrier group. A Where we stand:We continue to see favorable risk/reward in XPO shares, with solidimprovement in service, pricing and margins over the past several years indicative of arefreshed and promising operating strategy. We see the company as well positioned to leveragethe next upcycle, which appears to be materializing this year, and free cash flow conversion XPO: Bull & Bear — Debating Freight 2026 In this note we provide analysis of several key topics for XPO: LTL 2.0 OR target ahead of schedule despite revenue trailing thus far (Figures 1-3).Service improvement supporting continued yield gains, as well as recent volumemomentum (Figures 4-6). XPO appears poised for upcycle share capture (Figure 7). FIGURE 2. XPO's Operating Ratio Is On Track To Reach Long-Term Target Levels, Likely Ahead of Schedule Given Recent Results and Guidance FIGURE 6. XPO Tonnage Has Also Started to Improve in 2026, Reaching Flat Levels While the IndustryContinues to Decline on a YoY Basis Barclays | XPO, Inc. Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Brandon R. Oglenski and Eric Morgan, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly orindirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects the Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https:// publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th