联邦快递公司（FDX）：关于2026财年展望和货运分拆的思考

Restricted - External FDXOVERWEIGHTUnchangedNorth AmericaTransportationPOSITIVEUnchangedPrice TargetUSD 330.00lowered -6% from USD 350.00Price (02-Jun-25)USD 217.89Potential Upside/Downside+51.5%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchMarket Cap (USD mn)52206Shares Outstanding (mn)239.60Free Float (%)91.6252 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)1.8Dividend Yield (%)2.53Return on Equity TTM (%)14.76Current BVPS (USD)111.47Source: BloombergPrice PerformanceExchange-NYSE52 Week rangeUSD 313.84-194.29Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive chartingNorth America TransportationBrandon R. Oglenski+1 212 526 8903brandon.oglenski@barclays.comBCI, USEric Morgan, CFA+1 212 526 9642eric.morgan@barclays.comBCI, USDavid Zazula, CFA+1 212 526 5108david.zazula@barclays.comBCI, US quick review of market trends between FedEx and UPS as well as our updated sum of the partsvaluation analysis for FDX shares.Near-term FedEx earnings aredifficultto model given the likely weaker internationalpackage volumes but potential for stronger cost reductions; we see potential FY26guidance as likely higher, but perhaps more in line with long-term targets of 10-15%growth.Given last year’sshiftof the Priority Mail USPS contracted business from FedEx to UPS,we are closely tracking airline activity for each parcel operator (see Figure 1). Recent FedExairline departures suggest flight activity is down over 15%, likely representing a meaningfulreduction in expenses at the airline (with recent annual airline spending at FedEx totaling nearly$18bn). Nonetheless, we expectsofterinternational parcel volumes willoffsetat least some ofthe cost reduction activity at FedEx in the near-term, with our updated fourth quarter estimatenear the low end of management’s guidance. Looking into FY26, we see continued costreductions from lower airline activity and increased operational integration of Express andGround networks in the US asaffordingan outlook for higher core package margins, but againlikely partiallyoffsetby a still weak top line environment for the company (we modelinternational challenges continuing). Given the mixed outlook, we now model earnings growthof 14% with our FY26 EPS at $20.50, within the company’s long-term target of 10-15% EPSgrowth. We also take our PT to $330.FedEx appears to be gaining domestic US package market share from the higher cost andshrinking UPS Domestic Package business.Please see Figures 2-5 where we highlight recentvolume and yield trends across domestic US express and ground package markets for FedExand UPS. We note FedEx is clearly outperforming the larger UPS in recent periods on domesticpackage volume growth. However, realized yields (ex-fuel) have demonstrated higher gains atUPS, as the business manages down its largest customer’s volumes, supporting higher yieldoutcomes.Sum of the parts valuation on FedEx shares still supports upside potential well above$300; the upcoming Freight spin should be a favorable catalyst for shareholders.Please seeFigure 6 for our updated FedEx sum of the parts analysis. Figure 7 highlights historical P/Etrading ranges for both FedEx and UPS. We suspect ongoing volume headwinds and networkreductioneffortsat UPS could keep the company under relative earnings pressure, makingFedEx shares appear quite favorable given cost reduction potential and the upcoming Freightsegment spin.FDX: Quarterly and Annual EPS (USD)202420252026Change y/yFY MayActualOldNewConsOldNewCons20252026Q14.55A3.60A3.60A3.60A4.67E4.38E4.29E-21%22%Q23.99A4.05A4.05A4.05A5.02E4.76E4.50E2%18%Q33.86A4.51A4.51A4.51A4.65E4.28E4.76E17%-5%Q45.41A6.10E5.86E6.00E7.19E7.11E6.58E8%21%Year17.80A18.24E18.00E18.13E21.50E20.50E20.02E1%14%P/E12.212.110.6Consensus numbers are from Bloomberg received on 02-Jun-2025; 12:50 GMTSource: Barclays Research 2 FedEx: Thoughts on FY26 Outlook and Freight SpinFIGURE 1. FedEx Flight Activity Down Nearly 20% in Recent Months, Likely Supporting Materially Lower Airline Cost OutcomesSource: AirNav Systems; Barclays ResearchFIGURE 2. Ground Volumes at FedEx Have Generally OutperformedOutcomes Relative to Competitor UPSFIGURE 3. FedEx Domestic Express Volumes Have Been Weak InRecent Periods, But Also Outpacing Declines at UPS-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%3Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q25U.S. Ground Avg. Daily Volume Growth(CY; annual ch.)FDXUPSWe expect FDX tooutperform UPS onGround volumes in themost recent quarter.-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%3Q214Q211Q222Q22U.S. Express Avg. Daily Volume GrowthSource: Company reports; Barclays Research estimatesSource: Company reports; Barclays Research estimates3 June 2025 3Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q24(CY; annual ch.)FDXUPSFDX has recently beenoutperforming UPS onExpress volumes. 3Q244Q24 FIGURE 7. FedEx Shares Still Trade at a Large Discount to UPS, Despite the Former’s Known Volume Headwinds Given the Reduction In AmazonBusinessSource: Bloomberg; Barclays Research3 June 2025Barclays | FedEx Corp. Valuation MethodologyWe value FDX shares at $330 (was