释放动力 - 将目标价上调至318美元；重申跑赢

+1 917 344 8430douglas.harned@bernsteinsg.comAdrienRabier +44 20 7676 6820adrien.rabier@bernsteinsg.comNestorWester +44 20 7676 7067nestor.wester@bernsteinsg.comSpecialist Sales HWM Steve Song +1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com Howmet: Tripping off the Power - Raising target to $318;Reiterate Outperform insightsfromthecompany'sparticipation in Bernstein's StrategicDecisions Conference(seeourJune2ndreport,"Aerospace&Defense:TwelveCEOs in threedays-A&DthemesfromBernstein'sStrategicDecisionsConference) Our outlook continues to strengthen for Howmet. In the largest segment, Engine Products,Howmet'sposition in powergeneration,whetherforcommercialaero,defense,orIGTcontinues to improve.OnIGT became an important driver in 2025-and continues to getbetter.Rising demand from data centers, coupled with higher Howmet market share andhigher pricing, has led us to take out growth CAGR to 25%. In defense, with the war in Iran,aircraft utilization is up, which will increase the aftermarket portion of defense engine work.Commercial aero remains strong, with risks (already small) reduced for Howmet, ifwe nowsee the Strait of Hormuz opening. In parallel, Howment is in the early stages of transition tohigher value blades on LEAP-1B and the GTF. Fastening Systems continues to see upside.Wetake our revenue estimates upto reflectthe CAM and Brummer acquisitions. While initially dilutive to margins, the company expectsto be abletoraisethosemargins to overall segment levels.Boeingramps on 737and 787appear solid, even though A350 continues to lag. Weare at the beginning of the higher valuewidebodygrowthforfasteners.We are above consensus for Engine Products andFasteningSystems, with in lineforecasts for Engineered Structures and Forged Wheels. InvestmentImplications We raise our price target to $318 from $280.We remain Outperform.Our higher price targetis from increased revenues in Engine Products and Fastening Systems. estimates at Fastening Systems,Forged Wheels and Engine Products and better margins at Engine Products and ForgedWheels. Adj.EBITDA margin guidance was lifted 140bps to31.6%-31.8% (consensus 30.5%),and adjusted EPS was increased by$0.49to the$4.88-$5.00 range (consensus $4.63).Q2'26 guidance was provided, with revenues expected in the $2.39bn-$2.41bn range(consensus $2.34bn),adj.EBITDA of $760mn-$770mn (consensus $707mn), and adj.EPS of $1.22-$1.24(consensus $1.15).The company closed the Brunneracquisition in Q1. .IGT remains exceptionally strong,withgrowth acceleratingto 39% inthequarter,andmore sales expected as newIGT capacity comes online in 2026.IGTis seeing growth from both OEM demand and a surge in spares.Management notedprogress in customer contractnegotiations,withagreements finalizedfor six of seven customers,up fromfour previously,revenue to ramp in the outer years. We see the growth opportunity as better than the doubling of revenues that the companyhas projected over the next three to five years, particularly when factoring in both volume and pricing of IGT blades. Engine Products :We expect Commercial Aerospace revenue to benefit from the higher-priced new LEAP-1A, LEAP-1Band GTF-A blades deliveredto on-wing engines and increasinglyto the aftermarket. We expect segment margins to improvesteadily,driven by a favorable product mix shift toward more sophisticated, higher-margin blades, operating leverage, andyield improvements. FasteningSystems:Followingthe CAMacquisitionclose onApril 6,2026,we expectroughlythreequarters ofCAM'srevenueto be consolidated in 2026 (i.e.,~$330mn in FY2026).CAM manufactures precision fasteners,fluidfittings,andotherhighlyengineeredcomponentsforaerospaceanddefenseapplications.Weestimatethat~75%ofCAM'srevenueisderivedfrom commercialaerospace,with the remainderfrom defense.With the Brunner acquisition completed in February2026,we estimateroughly10monthsof revenue tobe consolidated in2026 (ie.,~$50mn inFY2026).The acquisitionenhances Howmet's capabilities in larger-diameter and longer-lengthfasteners and provides access to the industrial gasturbinemarket, where such products are required.We expect the majority of Brunner'srevenue to be reported withinFastening Systems-Industrial&Other.Fastening Systems should see revenues and margins both startto improveaswidebody ramps at Airbus and Boeing start to deliver upside. While the CAM acquisition is dilutive to Fastening Systemsmargins, we expect marginsto trend toward segment levels over the medium term. Commercial Transportation:The companycontinuestodemonstratea strong abilityto pass rawmaterial price changesthrough to customers. In Forged Wheels, revenue grew 17% YoY despite an 11% decline in volume, with the shortfall moregrowthforFY2026. Management remains cautious despite improving customer schedules and some evidenceof pre-buyForged Wheels slightly. Guidance for 2026 For 2026,the midpoint of the updated revenue guidance is $9.65bn, which includes ~$275mn of contribution from the CAMand Brunner acquisitio