新兴市场——全球增长的新引擎

Emerging Markets—The New Engine We believe the case for emerging markets(EMs) has become increasingly compelling.Between a weakening U.S. dollar, strengtheningfundamentals, and attractive valuations, theasset class appears well positioned for renewedinvestor interest, with recent outperformancesuggesting EM equities may be at the start of Five key themes help make the investment case for EMs: 12Structural Dollar DeclineEarnings-Led Rally Theme 1: Structural Dollar Decline •The U.S. dollar’s 2025 decline was the worst calendar-yearperformance in over 20 years, and the conditions behind it a weakening dollar. That relationship has held true acrossvarious global economic environments. •In other words, a softer dollar eases EM financialconditions, reduces dollar-denominated debt burdens,supports commodity exporters, and pulls capital back into •The cause is structural: the United States is simultaneouslyrunning a large fiscal deficit and a large current accountdeficit, which together accounts for approximately 6%to 7% of gross domestic product (GDP). That means the •But in our view, EMs don’t need a dollar collapse tooutperform; the asset class just needs the trend •We believe that short-term spikes driven by geopoliticalsafe-haven demand (including around Iran) have notreversed the structural picture, though geopolitical •Real rate differentials, which is the key driver of dollarstrength during the Fed tightening cycle, have now peaked •It’s important to note that historically, periods of sustainedEM outperformance relative to DMs have coincided with •We believe the current dollar setup provides macrosupport in favor of adding EM exposure right now. As the Dollar Weakens, the Case for EMs Strengthen The historically inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar (USD) and EM relative performance suggests that dollarweakness is a powerful tailwind for EMs. Theme 2: Earnings-Led Rally •Importantly, periods where EM earnings growth exceedthat of DMs have historically been associated withsustained relative outperformance. The current widening •EMs’ 2025 rally was built on strong earnings, not hope orcheap money. We believe that’s a meaningful distinction. •EM EPS growth outpaced DM EP growth in 2025. Thegrowth gap between EMs and DMs is real and it haswidened, driven in part by North Asia’s leadership in theAI supply chain. While this contribution is concentrated,it reflects participation in a multi-year structural capital •In contrast to the past decade, where EM rallies wereoften narrow and episodic, we are seeing a morebalanced contribution to earnings growth. We believethis combination of earnings leadership, improvingquality, and structural support provides a more durablefoundation for potential continued EM outperformance, •Crucially, total shareholder returns in EMs havebeen predominantly driven by earnings growth, withlimited reliance on multiple re-ratings. As a result, EMperformance has been more directly linked to underlying EXHIBIT 2 Quality of Returns Favor EMs: Earnings-Driven Gains vs. Multiple-Dependent DMs EM consensus EPS estimates have surged ahead of DM peers in 2026, and the decomposition of total shareholder returnsshow EM gains are being driven by fundamental earnings growth rather than multiple expansion. Theme 3: Underowned and Undervalued •Even after a strong 2025, EMs still trade at a meaningfuldiscount to DMs based on forward price-to-earnings. •We believe this is re-engagement, not capitulationbuying, as the rotation back into EMs has room to runsimply because many allocators haven’t made it yet. •We believe that discount appears increasingly compelling,as the composition of EMs have materially changed infavor of high growth sectors. Today, the index carriessignificantly more technology exposure and far less balance •It is also important to view this in a historical context.Relative EM vs. DM performance has tended to movein long cycles. Following approximately eight years ofunderperformance, we believe EMs may now be in theearly innings of a new period of relative outperformance. •In addition, active global funds are still meaningfullyunderweight EMs relative to benchmark, and that •We believe the combination of discounted valuations,improving earnings dynamics, low positioning, and cyclicaltiming creates a compelling technical and fundamental •Cumulative outflows from EM equities ran into thehundreds of billions of dollars over the past decade, andthe reversal that began in 2025 appears measuredand in its early stages. We do not view this as the kind of EXHIBIT 3 EM Equities Remain Cheap Relative to DMs: Low Valuations Meet Sizable Underweights The MSCI EM Index’s two-year forward P/E has traded at a sustained discount to the MSCI World Index, reflecting apersistent valuation gap between EM and DM equities. Meanwhile, global fund managers remain significantly underweight Theme 4: The Global AI Buildout •We believe the global AI buildout could end up