去全球化是神话吗？全球服务贸易的悄然崛起与东盟的增长新引擎

Is deglobalization a myth?The quiet rise of global services trade,and promising engine of ASEAN Definition, Driving Factors of Deglobalization,and the Dynamics of Global Trade andServices4 Why Services Trade Is Relatively MoreResilient to Deglobalization?7 Services Trade: ASEAN’s Economic Bufferand Growth Engine9 Krungsri Research View13 References15 Unlessexplicitly stated otherwise,this publication and all material therein isunder the copyright of Krungsri Research. As such, the reuse, reproduction, oralteration of this text or any part thereof is absolutely prohibited without priorwrittenconsent.This report draws on a wide range of well-established andtrustworthysources,but Krungsri Research can make no guarantee of theabsolute veracity of the material cited. Moreover, Krungsri Research will not beheld responsible for any losses that may occur either directly or indirectly fromany use towhich this report or the data contained therein may be put.Theinformation,opinions,and judgements expressed in this report are those ofKrungsri Research, but this publication does not necessarily reflect the opinionsof Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited or of any other companies withinthe same commercial group. This report is an accurate reflection of the thinkingand opinions of Krungsri Research as of the day of publication, but we reservethe right to change those opinions without prior notice. For research subscription, contactkrungsri.research@krungsri.com Introduction Deglobalization has emerged as one of the key megatrends shaping the global economic and tradelandscape. It is driven by a confluence of economic and social factors, most notably the international tradepolicy uncertainties and intensifying geopolitical conflicts. In particular, merchandise trade is likely to beara greater impact from this trend than commercial services trade. With global trade growth slowing and facing increasing protectionist measures, ASEAN—positioned as acritical production hub within global value chains—will inevitably encounter challenges to its exportcompetitiveness. Nonetheless, ASEAN retains considerable strengths in the services sector, which isexpected to play a growing role in driving economic activity and mitigating risks associated with reliance ongoods exports. This study therefore aims to examine the underlying drivers of deglobalization, explore the evolvingdynamics of global trade in goods and services1/, and assess the role of services trade as both aneconomic buffer and an engine of growth for ASEAN economies in the period ahead. Piyavadee Chirasirisuwan Senior Economistpiyavadee.chirasirisuwan@krungsri.com+662 296 2990 Definition, Driving Factors of Deglobalization,and the Dynamics of Global Trade and Services Globalizationrefers to the process through which an increasingly free flow of ideas, people, goods,services, and capital leads to the integration of economies and societies.2/Since the end of World War II,globalization has played a pivotal role in driving global economic growth, as reflected in the steady rise ofthe total global trade value3/to world GDP (Figure 1). However, following the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, global trade as a share of GDP expanded at anaverage annual rate (CAGR) of only 0.5%, a sharp deceleration compared with the 2.8% annual growthrecorded between 1993 and 2008. This slowdown has been primarily driven by weaker growth inmerchandise trade (Figure 2). In contrast, trade in services has grown at a faster pace, although it stillaccounts for a smaller share of global GDP compared with merchandise trade.Notably, since 2022, in theaftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the value of global services trade has consistently outpaced thegrowth rate of merchandise trade (Figure 3). Figure2 The slowdown in global trade has sparked widespread discussion of “Deglobalization” in variousinternational trade forums. The underlying causes behind the deceleration in global merchandise tradecan be broadly categorized as follows: 1. The Rise of Protectionist Trade Policies In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, slower economic growth pressured many countries to adoptinward-looking policies, emphasizing domestic economic stimulus over international engagement. Thisshift has been accompanied by implementation of both tariff and non-tariff measures aimed at protectingdomestic industries and reducing dependence on international trade. Protectionist measures, togetherwith reshoring investment policies, have assumed a more prominent role in the current global trade arenaas a means of strengthening domestic economic resilience. 2.Escalating U.S.–China Trade War The trade conflict between China and the United States, which began in 2018, has intensified significantlyunder the second term of President Donald Trump . This escalation has been marked by the imposition ofreciprocal tariffs and high sectoral tariffs on Chinese products as well as on goods from other countriesrunning tra