从燃料到原料中国化石燃料转折点及其对碳密集型产业次级地区脱碳的影响（英）

From Fuel to Feedstock:China's Fossil Fuel Turning Point and Implications for Subnational Decarbonization in Carbon- ABOUTiGDP The Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress (iGDP) is a non-profit thinktank focusing on green and low-carbon development. Established in 2014, AUTHORS YANGLi DeputyExecutive Director for Research and ProgramsLI XindiProjectLead for Energy Transitionlixindi@igdp.cn ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to thank Hu Min and Lyu Yaning from iGDP for their ENGLISH EDITORS XU Yiqing,Diego Montero Contactigdpoffice@igdp.cnDateApril 2026CitationYang, Li and Li, Xindi (2026).From Fuel to Feedstock: China's FossilFuel Turning Point and Implications for Subnational Decarbonizationin Carbon-Intensive Industries.Policy Brief. Beijing: Institute for GlobalDecarbonization Progress (iGDP). Contents Introdction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2Energy Used as Feedstock in China Has Grown Rapidly. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4Subnational Profiles: Classification of Provinces with High Feedstock Use. . . . . . . . .6Provinces with High Feedstock Use. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6Provinces with a High Proportion of Coal Used as Feedstock. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7Provinces with a High Proportion of Oil Products Used as Feedstock. . . . . . . . . . .7Provinces with a High Proportion of Natural Gas Products Used as Feedstock. . .8Conclusion and Policy Recommendations: Accelerate the Transformation ofDecarbonization Pathways for the Petrochemical Sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10 Reference. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 INTRODUCTION According to information released by the National Energy Administration (NEA) of China,2025 marked the first time that the increment in energy used as feedstock surpassed the total growth in fossil fuel consumption[1]. This indicates that fossil energy used as fuel is entering a Meanwhile, China's 15th Five-Year Plan outlines green hydrogen as a for ward-looking"industry of the future," with a strategic focus on developing the green hydrogen-ammonia- methanol value chain[2]. As these industries move toward large-scale commercial operation Against the backdrop of this structural shift and the accelerated development of greenhydrogen, ammonia, and methanol, local governments—particularly provinces with a high share This polic y brief examines the shif t from fuel to feedstock in China's fossil energ yuse, identifies provinces facing elevated risks of fossil feedstock lock-in, and offers policy Energy Used as Feedstock in China Has Grown Rapidly 2025 marked the first time that growth in energy used as feedstock (66 Mtce) exceeded the totalincrement in fossil fuel consumption (50 Mtce)[1]. Energy used as feedstock is accelerating: the 4.2 percentage point increase from 2019–2025 faroutpaces the 1.4 percentage point rise recorded over the preceding 14 years (2005-2019)(Figure 1). In China, feedstock energy is dominated by oil products and coal. As shown in Figure 2, from 2019to 2023, oil accounted for the largest share of energy used as feedstock, consistently remaining Coal followed as the second-largest source with a share of 35%–42%, mainly supporting coal-to-chemicals development and serving as a reducing agent in blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace In contrast, natural gas represented a relatively small share, holding steady at approximately4%–5%. Meanwhile, while the share of other energy sources remained low, it showed an upward Subnational Profiles: Classification of Provinces withHigh Feedstock Use The national shift in fossil energy utilization from 'fuel' to 'feedstock' will manifest as distinctregional imbalances, deeply rooted in the geographical variations of China's energy resourceendowments and industrial distribution. Therefore, it is critical to identify provinces with a highshare of energy used as feedstock relative to their total final energy consumption. This requires Provinces with High Feedstock Use Based on the two key metrics—the absolute scale of energy used as feedstock and its share in theprovincial energy mix—eight out of the 30 provinces with available 2023 statistical data exceedednational averages in both metrics. These provinces are Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Zhejiang, Conclusion and Policy Recommendations: Acceleratethe Transformation of Decarbonization Pathways for As fossil fuels are increasingly used as feedstock rather than fuel, sectors such as petrochemicals Under the "dual control" framework for carbon emissions, fossil fuels used as feedstock—previously exempt from energy consumption quotas—will now face much stricter constraints onprocess-related CO2emissions. Local governments must not only pu