巴西咖啡年度报告

Required Report:Required-Public Distribution Report Name:Coffee Annual Country:BrazilPost:BrasiliaReport Category:Coffee PreparedBy:Marcela Formiga Approved By:Frederick Giles Report Highlights: The outlook for Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest is positive, especially for arabica coffee, driven byoptimal weather in major growing regions. The anticipated recordcrop follows five years of lowproduction. Coffee exports for MY 2026/27 are forecast to surge by 30 percent, supported by theexpected bumper harvest. However, exporters remain cautious, holding back on deals amid low stocks THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILYSTATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY COFFEEProduction, Supply, and Distribution The 2026/27 coffee harvest is anticipated with optimism. The crop could set a new record, ending a five-year period in which arabica production consistently underperformed due to adverse weather conditions. Optimalweather conditions in Brazil's main producing regions have overall benefited coffee productionfor the 2026/27 season. Although rainfall was somewhat irregular in the last quarter of 2025, the volumewas sufficient to ensure good development of the main flowering periods in September and October. At The full harvest arrives at a time when low domestic and international stocks have caused exporters tohold backon deals. Additionally, the possibility of an El Niño phenomenon raises an alert on producers on the possible effects to the end of the 2026/27 harvesting and the 2027/28 coffee cycle. These factorsare strongly influencing coffee prices in the Brazilianmarket. Coffee Production Post sets its total Brazilian coffee production forecast for marketing year (MY) 2026/27 (July-June) at71.9 million bags (60 kilograms per bag), green bean equivalent, a 14 percent increase over the estimatefor MY 2025/26,set at 63 million bags (60 kilograms per bag). The increase is attributed to the positiveeffects of the biennial cycle on coffee trees in key producing regions, favorable weather conditions, and The biennial cycle is a natural feature of coffee plants, characterized by alternating years: one withabundant flowering and high yields (referred to as a positive or on-biennial year), followed by a yearwith less flowering and lower yields (a negative or off-biennial year). This cycle allows the plant to Coffee cultivation areas are expanding in Brazil, largely due to rising international demand and highercoffee prices. Additionally, advances in technology enabled producers to plant more coffee trees per Arabica productionfor MY 2026/27 (July-June) is forecast at 47.5 million bags (60 kilograms per bag),a 25 percent increase in relation to the previous cycle. The strong growth is due to the positive biennialcycle, an increase in cultivated areas, technological improvements in crop management, and morefavorable climatic conditions. There were more registered below-average rains in 2025, but mildertemperatures during the pre-flowering stage supported good development of the arabica crops. For MY 2026/27 (July-June), robusta/conilon productionis forecast at 24.4 million bags (60 kilogramsper bag), down from the MY 2025/26 estimate set at 25 million bags. This year, colder weather andperiods of excessive rainfall in some of the main producing regions led to a slightly lower yield Producers remain vigilant about the impacts of climate change, which are expected to significantlyaffect coffee production for both arabica and robusta in future harvests. As a result, many are adjusting Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB) forecasts 2026/27 coffee production at 66.7 million bags,18 percent higher than 2025, due to a strong rise in arabica production. This would set a new record,surpassing2020’s estimated 63 million bags. Arabica is forecast at 45.7 million bags, a 28 percent gainover the previous harvest. Robusta is set at 20.9 million bags, up nearly 1 percent from 2025. Increased The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) forecasts Brazil's 2026/27 coffee harvest at65.1 million 60-kg bags, a 15percent increase from the 2025 crop. Arabica production is set at 44million bags, 20 percent higher than the previous harvest, while Robusta coffee is also forecast to rise,reaching a record 21 million bags, almost 5 percent higher than the previous year. According to IBGE, Despite these projections, it is important to note that CONAB and IBGE, though both official Braziliangovernment agencies, use different methodologies to forecastcoffee production and have historically Harvest Outlook The 2026/27 coffee harvest began slowly across Brazil in April, then gained pace by mid-May, which isthe standard for the crop. The production cycle for arabica and robusta coffees proceeded satisfactorily,with isolated instances of excessive heat and low rainfall in late 2025 and early 2026. These weather The National Oceanic andAtmospheric Adm