2024年巴西咖啡市场年度报告

Date:June 03, 2024 Report Number:BR2024-0012 Report Name:Coffee Annual Country:Brazil Post:Brasilia Report Category:Coffee PreparedBy:Marcela Formiga Approved By:Joseph Degreenia Report Highlights: Brazil’s total coffee production for marketing year 2024/25 (July-June) is forecast at 69.9 million bags(60 kilograms per bag), green bean equivalent, a5.4 percent increase over the previous crop year.Arabica production is expected to reach 48.2 million bags and robusta/conilon production is forecast at21.7 million bags. Both forecasts represent increases over the 2023/24 season. Higher demand forBrazilian coffee, following the decline in production of other important coffee-producing countries, hasalso led to an increase in coffee exports. Post forecasts total coffee exports for MY 2024/25 (July-June)at 46.65 million 60-kg bags, green bean equivalent, up 2.4 percent in relation to the 2023/24 estimate. COFFEEProduction, Supply, and Distribution Brazil’sproduction of robusta/conilon has filled a gap during the 2023/24 harvest left by majorproducers such as Vietnam, Colombia, and Indonesia, which have suffered from irregular weatherconditions. The strong demand for Brazilian coffee is expected to continue in 2024/25. As a result,Brazil significantly expanded its export of robusta coffee in 2023 and has maintained an acceleratedpace in the first four months of 2024. In the early stages of the 2024/25 coffee cycle, lower-than-usual rainfall and severe heat from October toDecember in key coffee-growing regions of Brazil have reduced the development of flowers and fruits,leading to a reduction in the initial yields and production forecasts. However, Brazilian crops have since experienced optimal weather in the main regions of Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo, the mainproducing states. This has once again raised expectations for a favorable harvest, albeit lower thaninitially estimated. Coffee Production PostforecaststhetotalBraziliancoffeeproductionformarketingyear(MY)2024/25(July-June)at69.9millionbags(60kilogramsperbag),greenbeanequivalent,a5.4percentincrease(3.3millionbags)overtherevisedfigureforthepreviouscropyear. Arabicaproductionisexpectedtoreach48.2millionbags,a7.3percentincreaseoverthepreviousseason.Theheatwavesrecordedattheendof2023resultedinahighrateofdropsinpellets.However,therainierweatherinFebruaryprovided,ingeneral,idealconditionsforthefinaldevelopmentofthetreesandforthetreatmentofthecoffeecrops,contributingtothesatisfactoryfillingofbeans.Robusta/conilonproductionisforecastat21.7millionbags.Thisestimateis1.4percenthigherthantheestimateforthe2023/24harvest. Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB) forecasts that the 2024 coffee harvest will reach 58.8million bags, 6.8 percent higher than the amount harvested in 2023. Almost 80 percent of the harvestedarea in the country is dedicated to arabica coffee, which should reach 42.11 million bags.Robusta/conilon coffee is expected to reduce in area, but high yields have CONAB estimatingproduction at 16.7 million bags. The Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE) forecaststhe 2024 coffee harvest at 60.2 million bags, an increase of 5.6 percent in relation to the previous year.Arabica coffee was estimated at 41.2 million bags, up 4.5 percent from2023, and robusta/conilon shouldreach 18.9 million bags, an increase of 8.1 percent from the previous year. CONAB and IBGE usedifferent methodologies to forecast coffee production and have consistently shown lower estimates thanPost. Harvest Outlook Coffee harvesting began in April at a slow pace in some regions of Brazil and is expected to peak inJune and July, concluding by September. Initial reports from producers consulted by Post indicate lowyields and small beans, primarily due to the rains that affected crop development at the end of 2023.However, this result is typically anticipated with earlier harvested trees, and an increase in yield and inthe quality of the fruits should improve as harvesting progresses. Minas Gerais is the country’s leadingcoffee producer, followed by Espírito Santo, São Paulo, Bahia, and Rondônia. The likely arrival of the La Niña phenomenon towards the end of the second quarter is causingconcernamong producers consulted by Post, with warnings about possible climate risks that could greatly impactcoffee harvests. Forecasts indicate that the potential impact could affect coffee farms in Brazil,Indonesia, Vietnam, Colombia, and Guatemala.In Brazil, the La Niña is expected to bring lowertemperatures and the risk of frost, increasing concerns for coffee growers, especially in the Southeast ofthe country. In recent years, La Niña has been active during key phases of crop development, resultingin significant yield reductions. ARABICA Minas Gerais: In the 2024 harvest, variousregions in the state experienced periods of hightemperatures and heavy rains in critical moments, which resulted in many plants having fruits atdifferent stages of development and pellets in