恩智浦半导体（NXPI.O）模型更新——维持买入评级

NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI.O)Model Update - Maintain Buy CITI'S TAKE We update our model and adjust our TP to reflect the June analog price hikesand our view that AI data center buildouts will extend the analog upturn; weliftourC26/C27/C28EPSestimatesby6%/6%/14%to$13.35/$16.41/$19.52. Accordingly, we raise our TP from $270 to $370, or19X on C28 EPS (rolled forward from C27), above the high end of its tradingrange supported by peer multiple expansion tied to rising data centerexposure (see our 800V DC note). Price (22 Jun 26 16:00)US$323.24Target priceUS$370.00↑from US$270.00Expected share price return14.5%Expected dividend yield1.3%Expected total return15.7%Market CapUS$81,609M Analog Upturn—NXPI has previously mentioned that lead times are stretching out,late orders are coming in and expedites are going up. Book to bill is solidly above 1.Moreover, auto inventory correction is largely behind them and that most tier 1s arebuying to end demand. NXPI expects its China Auto market to be up in 2026, driven Data Center revenue up 150% YoY in 2026—NXPI has stated that its data centerbusiness is growing 150% YoY, from $200M in 2025 (2% of sales) to $500M in 2026(4%of sales),equally split between Industrial/IOT and CommunicationsInfrastructure. Atif MalikAC+1-415-951-1892atif.malik@citi.com Kelsey Chia, CFA+1-415-951-1791kelsey.chia@citi.com James Bowlin+1-415-951-1790james.bowlin@citi.com Model Update Bull/Bear: NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI.O) NXP Semiconductors NV Company description NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) is a supplier of mixed-signal and digitalintegrated circuits. The company’s products are used in a variety of endmarkets such as mobile, consumer, industrial, communications, automotive,and computing. Based in Eindhoven, the Netherlands, NXP has roughly Investment strategy We are Buy-rated on NXPI on broad recovery in the analog market as risingtide lifts all boats. Valuation Our price target of $370 is based on a 19x P/E applied to CY28 EPS, given peermultiple expansion tied to rising data center exposure. Risks End Market: NXP derives roughly 55% of sales from the automotive endmarket and roughly 18% of sales from the industrial end market. Therefore,any major changes in auto sales or industrial activity could result in Competition: NXP competes with several companies in analog, digital, andmicrocontrollers. Consequently, any changes in market share could result in Inventory Risk: NXP sells roughly 50-60% of its products throughdistributors. As a result, we believe any major fluctuations of inventory in the Macroeconomic: NXP’s geographic exposure spans multiple geographiesincluding the U.S., Europe, and Asia. As a result, any prolonged If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the detailsof the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONThe research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designated by “AC” in the author block or (ii) listed in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. If multiple ACanalysts are designated in the author block, each analyst is certifying with respect to the entire research report other than(a) content attributable to another AC certifying analyst listed in bold alongside the content and (b) views expressed solelywith respect to a specific issuer which are attributable to another AC certifying analyst identified in the price charts orrating history tables for that issuer shown below. Each of these analysts certify, with respect to the sections of the report IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates has a net long position of 0.5% or more of any class of common equity securitiesof NXP Semiconductors NV. Analysts’ compensation is determined by Citi Research management and Citigroup’s senior management and is based uponactivities and services intended to benefit the investor clients of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and its affiliates (the “Firm”).Compensation is not linked to specific transactions or recommendations. Like all Firm employees, analysts receivecompensation that is impacted by overall Firm profitability which includes investment banking, sales and trading, andprincipal trading revenues. One factor in equity research analyst compensation is arranging corporate access events betweeninstitutional clients and the management teams of covered companies. Typically, company management is more likely toparticipate when the analyst has a positive view of the company. For financial instruments recommended in the Product in which the Firm is not a market maker, the Firm is a liquidity providerin such financial instruments (and any underlying instruments) and may act as principal in connection with transactions insuch instruments. The Firm is a regular issuer of traded financial instruments linked to securities that m