国轩高科(002074.SZ)模型更新，目标价修订为42.7元人民币，维持买入评级。

Gotion High Tech (002074.SZ)Model Update, TP Revised to Rmb42.7/sh; Maintain Buy CITI’S TAKEWe update our Gotion model post 1Q26 result and revise down our 2026/27E earnings forecasts by 28%/23% to Buy Price (23 Jun 26 15:00)Rmb29.550Target priceRmb42.700↓from Rmb56.700Expected share price return44.5%Expected dividend yield0.3%Expected total return44.8%Market CapRmb53,607MUS$7,919M Rmb1,986mn/Rmb3,301mn, mainly to factor in mgmt. guidance andlower unit GP assumptions in 2026-27E. We also introduce 2028Eearnings forecast at Rmb4,328mn with this note. We value Gotion atRmb42.70/share (vs. Rmb56.70/sh previously) based on an EV/EBITDAvaluation approach as it eliminates uncertainties related to capitalstructures. We expect Gotion’s battery capacity will increase to 264GWh Earnings revision —We update our Gotion model post 1Q26 result and revise downour2026/27E earnings forecasts by 28%/23%to Rmb1,986mn/Rmb3,301mn,mainly to factor in mgmt. guidance and lower unit GP assumptions in 2026-27E. Wealsointroduce 2028E earnings forecast at Rmb4,328mn with this note.Our Jack Shang, CFAAC+852-2501-2441jack.shang@citi.com Anna Wang+852-2501-2739anna.d.wang@citi.com Valuation —We value Gotion at Rmb42.70/share (vs. Rmb56.70/sh previously)based on an EV/EBITDA valuation approach as it eliminates uncertainties related tocapital structures. Using 15.1x 2026E EV/EBITDA, 0.5SD below the historical averagesince 2012 due to a slowdown in EBITDA growth (vs. previously 0.4SD below historicalaverage with downward revision in EBITDA forecast), we derive a fair value ofRmb42.70. Our TP implies 39.0x 2026E P/E and 23.4x 2027E P/E. We expect Gotion’sbattery capacity will increase to 264GWh in YE2026E, vs. 148GWh in YE2025, Jimmy Fengjimmy.feng@citi.com Cynthia Wucynthia.d.wu@citi.com See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research Bull/Bear: Gotion High Tech Gotion High Tech Company descriptionGotion has been among the top Tier-2 battery producers in China with a 6% market share in EV battery in China. Headquartered in Hefei with production plants in Jiangsu, Hebei, Shandong and other locations, the company had ~150Gwh battery capacityat end-2025. Gotion’s customers include leading NEV producers. Investment strategyWe have a Buy rating on Gotion High-Tech. It is currently a Tier-2 battery supplier in China with a market share of ~6% in 2025. We expect Gotion’s battery capacity will increase to 264GWh in YE2026E, vs. 148GWh in YE2025, supporting the strong batterysales volume growth at 45% YoY in 2026E. ValuationWe value Gotion Hi-Tech at Rmb42.70/share based on an EV/EBITDA valuation approach as it eliminates uncertainties related to capital structures. Using 15.1x 2026E EV/EBITDA, 0.5SD below the historical average since 2012 due to a slowdown inEBITDA growth relative to very high levels of growth reported historically, we derive a fair value of Rmb42.70. Our TP implies Risks Downside risks that could cause the Gotion Hi-Tech shares to continue to trade below our target price include: 1) slower-than-expected capacity expansion ramp-up; 2) lower-than-expected product margins; and 3) worse-than-expected NEV demand. If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the detailsof the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONThe research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designated by “AC” in the author block or (ii) listed in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. If multiple ACanalysts are designated in the author block, each analyst is certifying with respect to the entire research report other than(a) content attributable to another AC certifying analyst listed in bold alongside the content and (b) views expressed solelywith respect to a specific issuer which are attributable to another AC certifying analyst identified in the price charts orrating history tables for that issuer shown below. Each of these analysts certify, with respect to the sections of the report IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates received compensation for products and services other than investment bankingservices from Gotion High Tech in the past 12 months. Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as clients, and theservices provided were non-investment-banking, non-securities-related: Gotion High Tech. Compensation is not linked to specific transactions or recommendations. Like all Firm employees, analysts receivecompensation that is impacted by overall Firm profitability which includes investment banking, sales and trading, andprincipal trading revenues. One factor in equity r