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中国领先AI数据中心运营商,启动买入评级

2026-06-23 汇丰前海证券 飞鹤萘酚
报告封面

Range Technology (300442 CH) servicecapacity,6GW long-term plan and 3.2GW energy quota TARGET PRICE (CNY)PREVIOUS TARGET (CNY)111.00SHARE PRICE (CNY)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE85.18+30.3%(as of 18 Jun 2026) growth, 43% 2025-28 EBITDA CAGR with improving margin Range generates revenue through two major segments: traditional IDC services (56%of 2025 revenue)and AIDC services (44%, including AIDC operation and GPU-as-a-Service).As of end-2025, Range operates 750MW of IT capacity with a long-term planof 6GW.It stands out among domestic peers for its industry-leading approved energyquotaof3.2GW,mostlyaroundtier-1cities.MajorclientsincludeByteDance(contributing49% of 2025revenue),with a growing revenue stream from otherhyperscalers.Backedscarce access tolowerpowerprices, Range delivers an average gross margin of49% from 2018-25, 15ppt above the peer average. Key beneficiary of the Al compute supercycle.Explosivedemand for LLM trainingand inference is fueling unprecedented Al compute demand. We estimate China's Alcomputedemandtoreachc5GWby2028,markingac5xincreasefrom2025.Domestichyperscalersare accelerating capex,withthecombined spendbyByteDance,AlibabaandTencent reachingRMB346bn in2025and projectedto reachRMB747bn in2026(+116% y-o-y). However, this is still well below the spending intensity of US peers,indicating substantial growth potential.The shifttoward SuperPOD cluster architecturesraisestechnicalbarriersand enhances thevaluepropositionof specialised operatorssuch as Range. Over the long term, domestic IDC operators have the potential toserveglobal inferencedemandvia“tokenexports",leveragingChina'smodelcostefficiency,abundant low-cost green power in western China, and lower civil andmechanical & electrical equipment costs. Yiran Liu* (Reg. No.S1700520040001)Head of A-share IT Software ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedriran1.liu@hsbcqh.com.cn+861057952349 RobustrevenuegrowthwithimprovingEBITDAmargin.Weexpecta36%revenueCAGR over2025-28,backed by in-serviceIT capacity,expectedto growto1.6GW(637MW traditional IDC, 973MW AIDC)by 2028 from750MW in 2025. In addition,the rising share of higher margin AIDC revenue is set to lift blended gross margins.Diversified funding channels, including an ample bank credit line and China's firstlisted data centre REIT,providelow-costcapital access andbalancesheetflexibilityWe forecast a 43%EBITDACAGR over 2025-28,with the EBITDA margin expandingto 71% in 2028 from 61% in 2025. HengZhang*(Reg.No.S1700524050001)AnalystA-shareITSoftwareResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedheng.zhang@hsbcqh.com.cn+861057952384 "Employed bya non-US affliate ofHSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Initiate at Buy with a target price of RMB111.00. We refer to Range's historicalour 2027 EBITDA of RMB7,149m, we derive our target price of RMB111.00, implying30% upside. Hence, we initiate at a Buy rating. See key downside risks on page 15.Seeour sectornoteChina AIDCs and Supply Chain:Riding on robust demandforAlcompute,(23June2026). Disclosures&Disclaimer Issuer of report: HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBC Qianhai Securities at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Investment Summary Rangeisoneof the leadingAiDC playerstobenefitfromstrongAicomputedemand...... along with technology and cost advantagedriving acceleratedrevenuegrowthandbetterEBITDAmargin→InitiateatBuy;EV/EBITDA-basedTPofRMB111.00 Beneficiaryof strongAl computedemand Driven by the Al compute supercycle, we expect China's Al demand to grow fivefold to c5Gw by2028.Domestic hyperscalers are accelerating capex, with the combined spend by ByteDance,Alibaba andTencent reachingRMB346bn in 2025and projected to growtooverRMB700bn in2026.Range is a leading AIDC operator in China,with strong technical capabilities and ampleAiDC energy quotas, and is well-positioned to benefit from the Al infrastructure boom. We expecta 36%revenue CAGR from2025-2028, supported by the AIDC capacity expansion(represented by the 20MW Langfang B1 AIDC facility scheduled to become ready for service in2H26),GPUaaS utilisation improvement and overseas expansion. In-service capacity is set toforecast a 43% EBITDA CAGR and EBITDA margin expansion to 71% in 2028 from 61% in2025. Initiateat Buy Weforecast Range's 2025-28 revenue andEBITDACAGRs at36%and 43%,respectively.Range'srevenueshouldreachRMB14.2bnin2028.Meanwhile,itsEBITDAmarginshouldseecontinued improvement.We expecttheEBITDAmargin toreach71%in2028vs 61%in2025 We use an EV/EBITDA multiple and refer to Range's historical EV/EBITDA multiple to value the2021-25 was 31%. We forecast its 2025-28 EBITDA CAGR at 43%. Hence, we apply a 28xarrive at our TP of RMB111.00, implying 30%upside.We initiate at Buy as we believe Range iswell-positionedtobenefitfromstrongAlcomputedemand andhasanadvantage intechnologyand cost. O