Alliant Energy Corp. (LNT)：持续改进的数据中心故事爱荷华州。IRA担忧导致评级上调至买入

2024A3.043.07%3.042,052 2025E2026E2027E3.193.373.663.25%3.44%3.67%3.213.453.692,5102,7553,435 Dushyant Ailani, CFA * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 778-8318 | dailani@jefferies.comJamieson Ward, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (281) 774-2081 | jamieson.ward@jefferies.comTanner James, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 788-8667 | tjames@jefferies.comHannah Velasquez * | Equity Associate+1 (347) 982-6038 | hvelasquez@jefferies.comWhitney Mutalemwa * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 707-6413 | wmutalemwa@jefferies.comEthan Corcoran * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 284-2462 | ecorcoran@jefferies.comSpark Li * | Equity Associate+1 (713) 308-4573 (office) | sli8@jefferies.comQudrat Qureshi * | Equity Associate(646) 530-5925 | qqureshi@jefferies.comSource: Bloomberg, Jefferies LLC The Long View: Alliant Energy Corp.Investment Thesis / Where We DifferLNT's data center and large load customer pipeline create the opportunity toachieve EPS growth above the high-end of guidance by 2029. Even prior to theuplift in anticipated load for 2027+, we see ongoing generation build tappinginto elevated capacity fees, and energy/tax credits. Capacity payments fromMISO following the PJM auction result trend remain a potential tailwind,though we note IRA and wind generation uncertainty are potential concerns.Securing large load customers will continue to be the central theme in 2025while IRA reform remains an evolving risk in the backdrop.Base Case,$71, +13%+6.2% premium to utility peers on our core EPSforecast which is above the mid-point of the 5-7%EPS CAGR. This reflects LNT shares' recent peak,and we believe is appropriate for the visibility intogrowth and reasonable regulation.We value LNT at a $71.00 PT with an impliedTSR of 16.9%, using a 2027E Sum-of-the-PartsmethodologySustainability MattersTop Material Issues:1) Emissionsare a focus of diverse stakeholder and Federal requires.2) Affordabilityof energy products is similarly an important regulatory and political priority.3) Critical Incident Risk Management [reliability]is the ultimately responsibility of a regulated utility.This is measured by the frequency and duration of outages.Company Target(s):1)Reduce GHG emissions from utility operations by 50% of 2005 levels by 2030.2)Eliminate all coal from their generation fleet, and increase GHG reduction to 80% by 2040.3)Achieve net-zero GHG emissions from their utility operations by 2050.Questions to Management:1)How would a rollback of the IRA impact your long-term financing plans?2)What energy alternatives have you considered for power sourced from the Wyoming Powder RiverBasin, and can a transition happen prior to 2040?3)How does the company evaluate the water needs of incremental load growth opportunities?Please see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$80, +27%Data center growth in Wisconsin picks up undernew legislation, giving LNT a second territory withproven data center viability. Demand materializingfaster or larger than current capital expenditureforecast and successful retention of tax creditsreduces financing needs. Management providesclarity on long-term capacity length, and newgeneration projects remain on schedule and cost-effective. Downside Scenario,$50, -21%Rollback of the IRA or disruptions in existingenergytax credit market force LNT to re-filein Iowa ahead of schedule.Executionriskon generation build could reduce utility'sabilityto capture demand in a competitivelandscape.We view the former scenario asunlikely given the IRA's disproportionate benefitsforRepublican districts,and the latter duetomanagement's practice of not announcingprojects until contractually locked in. Economicdevelopment materializing slower than expectedis another consideration.Catalysts•IRA Reform (TBD)•Capital Plan Roll-forward (3Q25).•WI Rate Case Order (est. 4Q25)•WI ROFR Legilslation (TBD)•ICR Filings (IA est. 2Q25, WI order est. 3Q25)•Additional Renewable Filings (IA/WI, TBD) 2 EPS CAGR raise unlikely before WPL rate case order,but multiple avenues for upside are emergingSince LNT's initial capital expenditures update in late 2024, Consensus EPS estimates have trendedtoward the high end of the company's 5-7% EPS CAGR target range over the planning period. Withupside expenditures contemplated in our model beyond those provided by mgmt (described in thesections below), our estimates trend at or toward the high end of the 5-7% EPS guidance target from2027 through 2029.From our vantage, we see three underappreciated tailwinds(incremental to what we are currentlymodeling) that provide us with conviction that LNT can deliver upside that actually begins to emergein the current planning period, relative to our prior assumption that upside would be limited tobeyond 2029. Again, we do not expect a material revision in EPS CAGR guidance until WPL's multi-year rate case with the Wisconsin Public Service Commission (WPSC) concl