全球农业追踪器（6月26日）：情绪减弱与农民经济

Global | Chemicals Global Ag Tracker - June 26 - WeakerSentiment and Farmer Economics Jefferies covers c.$300bn in market cap across global Ag inputs. Our GlobalTracker provides an overview of SPP, earnings, & end-market momentum(farmer incomes, sentiment, WASDE stocks-to-use, & spreads). Nitrogenpricing continues to retreat as weak demand drives ongoing deflation Farmer Sentiment Softens as Conditions Deteriorate:Farmer sentiment edged lower in May,with the Ag Economy Barometer declining from 121 to 119. The weakness was driven by asharp 8-point drop in the Current Conditions Index (now at its lowest since December 2024),while the Future Expectations Index saw only a modest 1-point uptick. Concerns around We revise our net farmer incomes lower, now modelling only ~480bps YoY improvement into2026 across corn, soy and wheat, reflecting higher cost assumptions from updated USDA data.While CSW ’26 futures (down 7% on 1m) are ~17% above FY25 realised levels ($/bu at harvest),this is largely offset by ~5.3% higher aggregate costs (notably fertiliser, fuels and machinery).At a crop level, corn deteriorates by ~210bps (to -12%), while soy (+270bps to -10%) and wheat Urea and Nitrate prices continue to retreat.On the supply side, a meaningful portion of globalnitrogen (c.30% of urea) remains absent from export markets; however, soft demand is driving Brazil potash prices have eased,as resistance to further price increases builds. With MOPrequirements for the peak season largely covered, buyers remain on the sidelines and in no WASDE Stocks to use:We use monthly WASDE as a reference for current market inventorylevels of key crop commodities, providing context behind commodity supply and prices. Marcus Dunford-Castro * | Equity Analyst+44 (0)20 7548 4741 | mdunfordcastro@jefferies.com •Corn STU flat m/m, 60bps above mid-cycle, 53rd percentile of history.• Laurence Alexander ^ | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 284-2553 | lalexander@jefferies.com Soy STU flat m/m,50bps below mid-cycle, 67th percentile of history.• Stephen Volkmann, CFA ^ | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 284-2031 | svolkmann@jefferies.com Sector revisions remain largely stable, with nitrogen and phosphate/potash estimatesbroadly muted, pointing to limited near-term earnings momentum across fertiliser names. In Michael Leuchten * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 20 7029 8346 | mleuchten@jefferies.comBhaskar Chakraborty ‡ | Equity Analyst 91 22 4224 6113 | bchakraborty@jefferies.com SPP in Ferts/Ag chems under pressure, Machinery resilient: Across both 1M and 3M views,fertilisers and ag chemicals have declined, with fertilisers down -10% (-17% over 3M) and agchems -6% (-3% over 3M), while ag machinery outperformed at +5% (+3% over 3M). Withinfertilisers, nitrogen showed greater weakness on a 1M basis (-15% vs -6% for phosphate/ Sonali Salgaonkar ‡ | Equity Analyst91 2242246128 | ssalgaonkar@jefferies.com Ramoun Lazar || | Equity Analyst+61 293642930 | rlazar@jefferies.com Table of Contents Ag Compsheet3Recent Ag Research4Upcoming Results Releases4Farmer Net Income Model6Earnings Momentum by Category7Share Price Performance9Relative Valuation12 Ag Compsheet Valuation considerations.We focus on PE, EV/EBITDA, FCF Yield, and Div. Yield to gauge valuation.Ferts remain the cheapest at 6.4x 2026E EV/EBITDA, Seed/Chems valuations are 10.0x, withmachinery still the most expensive at 27.6x. Recent Ag Research In Dire Straits: Nitrogen Tightness Understated, Potash More InsulatedAg Review: Higher Prices Raise Demand Destruction Concerns AgChems: FMC Model Update: Weak Outlook Offset By Sale ProcessBASF 4Q25 Results Fertilisers: K+S 1Q26 - Q1 Beat and Guide Raised, Midpoint Assumes Brazil Price HoldsYara 1Q26 Results - Strong Beat, FID on Track for 1H26ICL - Q4 Solid; Sulfur Costs and F/X Hinder Outlook Equipment: Ag Equipment Sales: April Trends Remain Negative Used Farm Equipment: Total Listing Down with Used Prices Up From April AGCO: Model Update DE: Upgrade to Hold: More Balanced at Current Levels Upcoming Results Releases Farmer Net Income Model We model net farmer incomes across the three key row crops (corn, soy and wheat), basing ourestimates on the USDA's survey-based cost return models, harvest numbers, futures, and long- We update our farmer net income model with new USDA cost of production forecasts across themajor crops. As such, we revise our farmer net incomes down for 2026, now up ~480bps yoy.CSW 26 futures are on average 17% above FY25 price received ($/bu at harvest), whilst aggregatecosts are expected to increase ~5.3% on average (driven by higher costs e.g., fertiliser, fuels and •Soybeans:net margins to improve 270bps (from -13% to -10% in 2026) • Overall we model all crop margins as negative into 2026, and remaining negative into 2027. Exhibit 6 - Corn, Soy, Wheat Farmer Net Incomes Earnings Momentum by Category• Nitrogen fertiliser:FY26 estimates muted at c.-2% on a 1-month basis.•Phosphate/Potash:Downgrades softer than Nitro