美国半导体及半导体资本设备行业研究：AI驱动下的投资机会

Bernstein Semi Cycle Tearsheet: The only game in town? The only game in town?The AI theme has grown so large that it is now draggingeverything in the space along with it (except, perversely, the AI compute names themselves).But the appetite to play the constraint/bottlenecks has continued as attention rolls fromone to the other (hitting memory, semicap, optical/networking, analog/power, and, mostrecently, CPUs), and even intensified as investors pursue what, for many of them, remainsthe only game in town. Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Step right up?But if you’ve been there, you’ve been rewarded with the SOX now returning107% YTD, dwarfing the S&P (+9%). And while expectations and valuations have spikedover the last three months we continue to gain some solace in the fact that the performanceso far this year has largely been driven by earnings growth, with forward EPS for the SOX up75% since the beginning of the year. Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com (Almost) everyone’s a winner?So far AI demand continues to show no signs of slowingwith all signs right now pointing to continued multi-year visibility and tight supply/capacityin virtually all needed components, and even many non-AI names have broadly been ableto construct AI narratives. Overall we remain bullish on AI demand, and our AI computenames (perversely the only “losers” so far as “bottlenecks” have attracted more attention)are growing almost absurdly attractive if one believes the current trajectory has legs (whichwe suspect it does). Own both NVDA and AVGO.We get the desire to play the bottlenecks instead, but theywon’t ultimately work if these don’t; in the meantime demand shows no signs of slowing,and both stocks screen unreasonably cheap (NVDA and AVGO both rated OP). Buy AMD on CPU and AI.We recently upgraded the stock (better late than never) onCPU and AI/GPU upside, and believe fundamentals can support a $20 EPS in 2028,suggesting more to go.And we are feeling better about Intelthan we have in a long timeas both the market (CPU) and narrative (foundry, Trump etc.) grow more supportive, thoughfundamentals remain on the challenging side (AMD rated OP, INTC rated MP). Semicap growing (much) more expensive but stay longas WFE still has upside, in ourview. We like all names but lean toward AMAT if we had to pick on DRAM exposure andvaluation (AMAT, KLAC, and LRCX all rated OP). Torn on Qualcomm...We believe their smartphone business is in for some pain but clearlyunderestimated the appetite of investors to buy into any new halfway-credible datacenterstory; we shall see if the upcoming analyst day can act as a further catalyst. (QCOM ratedMP). Analog in recovery, though expensive.In our coverage both TXN and ADI have alreadybeen growing double digits for a year or more, suggesting that not only have we hit bottomwe might be heading (for some) into mid-cycle, and both stocks remain quite expensiveespecially as datacenter, while fast growing, remains small. NXPI is cheaper, and hasadmittedly handled this cycle well, but has a bit too much auto for us to be comfortable(TXN, ADI and NXPI all rated MP). Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917 stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS AMD (Outperform, $600.00): Expectations remain high, but exposure to AI demand driving both a CPU and GPU story canprovide substantial growth. ADI (Market-Perform,$430.00): ADI is executing well with both cyclical and idiosyncratic drivers, though may be closer to peak,and valuations remain elevated. AVGO (Outperform,$550.00): A strong 2026 AI trajectory seems set to accelerate into 2027 and beyond, bolstered bysoftware, cash deployment, and superb margins & FCF. INTC (Market-Perform, $100.00): Server strength is helping the company get back on their feet, and narrative/headlines mayfuel the vibe for now. NVDA (Outperform, $315.00): The datacenter opportunity is enormous, and still early, with material upside still possible. NXPI (Market-Perform, $270.00): The pace and makeup of recovery remains open for debate. QCOM (Market-Perform, $140.00): Memory headwinds appear likely to pressure smartphone builds and numbers appear high;we shall see if datacenter dream is enough to attract buyers. TXN (Market-Perform, $250.00):TXN shares feel fully valued in the current environment. AMAT (Outperform, $525.00): Exposure to key inflections is strong & valuation vs peers is attractive. LRCX (Outperform, $340.00): The company is benefiting from key inflections (GAA, packaging, HBM, NAND upgrades) andCY26/27commentary seems supportive. KLAC (Outperform,$197.50): Amid positive WFE trends KLAC possesses structural growth drivers, a strong and durablecompetitive position, lower China replacement risk, and disciplined capital allocation, warranting premium valuation. DETAILS The AI theme has grown so large that it is now