全球经济展望及投资策略2026年下半年

EMPOWE转型蓄力ERINGTRAFORGIN力，向新ANSFORMG ANEW新而行MATION,WPATH icbcci.com.hhk || 目录 || || Contents || 团队介绍 ............................................................ 2全球经济 ............................................................ 9中国经济 ..........................................................12全球大类资产 ..................................................15股市策略 ..........................................................18债券市场 ..........................................................24TMT/AI 行业...................................................28半导体行业 ......................................................33工业和汽车行业..............................................38电力与新能源行业..........................................42医疗医药行业 ..................................................46消费行业 ..........................................................51电子行业 ..........................................................56重要披露 ....................................................... 127 Team Introduction ........................................ 2Global Economic ......................................... 62China Economic ........................................... 66Global Major Asset Class.......................... 70Equity Strategy............................................. 74Bond Market ................................................. 82TMT/AI Sector .............................................. 86Semiconductor Sector............................... 93Industrials and Auto Sector...................100Renewable Power Sector........................104Healthcare Sector......................................109Consumer Sector.......................................115Electronics Sector......................................121Important Disclosures .............................128 团队介绍 Team Introduction 工银国际研究团队是工行集团内为全球客户提供市场化研究的团队。研究范围涵盖全球宏观、中国宏观、市场策略、固定收益、行业和公司研究等。分析师队伍具备服务全球专业投资者的丰富经验，定期举办各类活动，包括:专题研讨会、非交易路演、公司探访及实地调研等。团队内并已形成专业梯团，培育研究力量。工银国际研究在市场已积累了较强的专业声望及市场影响力，未来我们将致力进一步扩大研究广度与深度，为投资者提供更好的服务。 ICBC International Research is the team within the ICBC Group providing market-based research services to global clients.Research coverage spans across global macro, China macro, market strategy, fixed income, industries and companyanalysis. Our analysts have a wealth of experience in servicing global professional investors and arranging variousresearch activities; including topical seminars, non-deal roadshows, company and on-site visits. In additional to theexperienced analysts, we also have a team of young talents who are ready to grow. ICBC International Research Team hasalready gained a strong professional reputation and market influence. As one of the most renowned and influentialinvestment bank research teams in Asia, we will strive to provide excellent services to client by expanding the breadth anddepth of our research continuously. 程实 Cheng Shi工银国际首席经济学家Chief Economist 程实，经济学博士，工银国际首席经济学家。曾获“全国十大金融工匠”荣誉称号、全国金融五一劳动奖章、金羊奖、第一财经年度机构首席经济学家等奖项。他同时担任中国首席经济学家论坛理事，资本市场学院特聘教授，香港中文大学深圳高等金融研究院客座教授Cheng Shi, Doctor of Philosophy in Economics, is the chief economist of ICBC International. He was once awarded the honorary title of “Top Ten National Financial Craftsmen.” He won professional awards include the NationalFinancial May Day Labour Medal, the “Golden Ram” prize, Institutional Chief Economist Of The Year Award fromChina Business News. He is also a director of China Chief Economist Forum, distinguished professor of ChinaCapital Market Institute, adjunct professor of Shenzhen Finance Institute of the Chinese University of Hong Kong 涂振声 Angus To研究部副主管 Deputy Head of Research 涂振声先生是工银国际研究部副主管及董事总经理，负责固定收益市场研究，对在岸和离岸债券市场发展有深刻见解。他拥有接近20年的专业经验，在2019年《机构投资者》大中华最佳分析师（海外）评选中入围投资组合策略团队。曾于法国巴黎银行（香港）的固定收益研究部从事宏观研究工作，团队在2007及2008年的《亚洲货币》投票中排名第一。他持有英国兰卡斯特大学金融硕士学位，并拥有特许金融分析师资格。Angus To is the Deputy Head and Managing Director of Research Department of ICBC International. He isresponsible for fixed income market research and has profound insight of the development of onshore and offshorebond markets. He has near 20 years of professional experience. His team was ranked as one of the best PortfolioStrategy Team inInstitutional Investor’s All-China Research Poll (Overseas) in 2019. Before joining ICBCInternational, he was a member of the Fixed Income Research Team at BNP Paribas (HK), focusing on macroanalysis; the team was voted No.1 in AsiaMoney’s polls in 2007 and 2008. He holds a Master Degree in Finance fromLancaster University of the UK and is a CFA Charterholder. 李启浩 Nelson Lee 行业研究团队主管 Head of Sector Research新能源、电力与电力设备 Renewable Energy, Power & Power Equipment 李启浩先生是工银国际研究部行业研究团队主管及执行董事，主要负责新能源、电力与电力设备行业研究。他拥有逾12年行业研究经验，在2018-2020年大中华地区《机构投资者》公用事业、环保和新能源行业排名前三，并在2017和2020年获汤森路透评选为亚洲区、内地和香港公用事业前三最佳盈利预测分析师。李先生毕业于香港中文大学，获得金融经济学士学位，曾在北京大学深造经济学，目前持有CFA、CESGA、FRM等资格。Nelson Lee is the Head of Sector Research and an Executive Director of Research Department of ICBC International. He is mainly focused on Renewable Energy, Power and Power Equipment