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Commodity Matters| Europe Gold on Hold Ben KelsonResearch Associate De-escalation in the Middle East supports gold, but a morehawkish Fed brings challenges, particularly for ETF buying. Westill see risks skewed to the upside but our $5,200/oz forecast Martijn Rats, CFAEquity Analyst and Commodities StrategistMartijn.Rats@morganstanley.com+44 20 7425-6618 Key Takeaways Middle East progress is a tailwind for gold if lower oil prices ease inflation andexternal balance pressures. Official sector demand remains the strongest structural support. WGC’s surveyshows 45% of respondents see their gold reserves rising over the next 12 months. The Fed is the main near-term constraint. A hawkish hold raises the opportunitycost of holding gold and is likely to matter most through ETF flows. We retain an upside bias, but $5,200/oz in 2H26 now looks more dependent onrenewed ETF buying and evidence that lower oil is feeding into the rate outlook. Exhibit 8 :On average, gold has rallied 0.84%in the 1 month after a 25bp Fed hike versus3.93% after a cut Middle East conflict de-escalation is positive for gold:Gold has not played itstraditional safe haven role during the conflict, with supply shocks harder to hedgethan demand shocks. The conflict has created 2 headwinds for gold: 1) higher bond yields; 2) pressure on fiscal balances of oil and gas importers, driving some goldsales (e.g. Turkey). Against this backdrop, de-escalation should be supportive. Ouroil strategist sees lower oil prices than previously expected, which should ease A more hawkish Fed could be a challenge for ETF buying: Our US economists viewthe latest FOMC statement, projections and press conference as hawkish, and noteno reference to downside risks in the labour market. This has pushed rate hike Also see: metal&ROCK: Gold: Safe Haven or RiskAsset? (17 Apr 2026) But with some offsets: Our economists note the inflation path implied by theSummary of Economic Projections may not fully reflect disinflationary forces from aSoH reopening, and sits above their own estimates. They see the Fed on hold Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. MS outlook:We still see upside risks for gold from current levels, but the route to$5,200/oz looks more challenging. A durable Middle East de-escalation should easeoil driven inflation pressure, while central bank buying remains structurally += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Key Charts Exhibit 4:And gold has been performing better on de- Exhibit 10:On average, gold has rallied 0.84% in the 1 monthafter a 25bp Fed hike Exhibit 12:India's imports moderated, with the gold import dutyhiked during May to discourage purchases Exhibit 11:China's gold purchases have accelerated with the The World Gold Council highlights several historical exampleswhere gold rallied after a Fed hike: - Jun 2006: The Fed was hiking into growth concerns, while strong physicaldemand from ETFs and China was also supporting prices. - Mar 2017: The rate hike was interpreted as dovish versus expectations and USD - Nov 2022: The hike came against growing market fragility, while the USD - Mar 2023: "The Fed tightened into acute banking stress. Long-end yields fellsharply as markets accelerated expectations of a pause and eventual easing." Disclosure SectionThe information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by Morgan Stanley Europe S.E., regulated by Bundesanstalt fuer Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and/or Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, authorized by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential RegulationAuthority. Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc disseminates in the UK research that it has prepared, and which has been prepared by any of its affiliates, only to persons who (i) are investmentprofessionals falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended, the “Order”); (ii) are persons who are high net worth For important disclosures, stock price charts and equity rating histories regarding companies that are the subject of this report, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure Websiteat www.morganstanley.com/eqr/disclosures/webapp/generalresearch, or contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attent