欧洲与‘中国冲击2.0’：竞争力面临压力

Competitiveness Under Pressure Clemente De Lucia | SeniorEuropeanEconomist | +39 02 402-43012 |clemente.delucia@db.com Yacine Rouimi |Senior EuropeanEconomist| +44-20-754-71014 |yacine.rouimi@db.comMark Wall |Chief EuropeanEconomist| +44-20-754-52087 |mark.Wall@db.comKuhumita Bhattacharya|ResearchAssociate|kuhumita.Bhattacharya@db.com June 2026 Executive Summary (1/2): Europe’s Second China Shock Thewar in Iran has diverted attention away from one of Europe’s key macroeconomic challenges:weakcompetitiveness.WehighlightedthisthemeinourEuropean2026outlook,andthefocusoncompetitivenessvis-à-visChina,inparticular,isgrowing.ChinaistheEU’ssecondlargesttradingpartnerforgoods,andthegoodsdeficitwithChinaiswideningagainandisclosetothepandemicrecordlevel. ThehealthoftheEU-ChinatraderelationshipingeneralmattersalotforEurope’smacroprospects.AfterChinajoinedtheWTO,theglobaleconomyexperienceditsfirst“Chinashock”.Chineseexportssurgedworldwideandadvancedeconomies’exportsharesdeclined.Europeisnowfacing“ChinaShock2.0”asChina’sexportsharerisesagain. TherearetwokeychannelsthroughwhichthisshockcantransmittoEurope.Onechannelisthepotentialforimporteddeflation.Wediscussedthisinarecentnote.Thisriskneedscontinuousmonitoring,buttheconclusionwastheriskswereoverstatedatthispoint.TheotherchannelisthecompetitivethreattoEuropeanexports.Competitivenessisthefocusofthischartbook. Nowseemstheperfecttimetosharesomeinsights.Withfirms’perceptionsofexternalcompetitivenessatrecordlowsandlastyear’stradetensionswiththeUSstillfreshineveryone’smemory,theEuropeanCouncil(EUHeadsofStateandGovernment)gatherinBrusselsthisweekto,amongotherthings,discusshowtostrengthentheEU’stradedefencetoolboxtobetterprotectEuropeancompetitiveness.Formore,seehere.Inshort,tradefrictionislikelytoincreasegoingforward. Wedothreethingsinthischartbook.#1First,welookatthetrendsintheEU-Chinatraderelationship.WelookatthecomponentsdrivingthewideningandhowChina’s tradeinincreasinglycomplexproductsisrising.#2Second,welookattherolethatpricedifferentialsareplayingincompetitivenessbetweenEuropeandChina.WepresentsomedataonthescaleofsubsidieswhicharecontributingtokeepingChinapricesdown.#3Third,wedelvedeeperintocompetitivenessusingdetaileddataonRevealedComparativeAdvantage(RCA).ThesedatageneratesomeimportantinsightsontheevolvingtraderisksforEurope. Executive Summary (2/2): Europe Second China Shock ❑Keytakeaways: ❑TheEUtradedeficitwithChinahaswidenedtoaroundEUR370bn,closetoarecordhigh(2%ofGDP).Machineryandtransportequipmentexplainc.60%ofthedeficit.GoodsimportsfromChinahadtemporarilysurgedduringthepandemiclockdowns,butimportsarebackontheirrisinglong-termtrend.MoreworryingisthatEurope’sexportstoChinahavebeguntodecline. ❑Pricecompetitiveness is playing a key role,and subsides are supporting China’s advantage.The PPIdifferentialmovedmarkedlyinChina’sfavouraftertheUkraine-invasionshockedEuropeanenergycosts.China’s‘anti-involution’policymightbestabilizingthePPIdifferential,butthegapremainswide.ChinesesubsidieshavehelpedpushdownChineseproducerprices,andweshowthecorrelationbetweenthescaleofsubsidiesandmarketsharegainsbyChina. ❑Usingproduct-leveldata,wedemonstratetheevolutiontomoredirectcompetitionbetweentheEUandChina.WedothiswiththeRevealedComparativeAdvantage(RCA)indextocompareEUandChineseexportsacrossmore than 5,600 product categories.We find a high concentration of products in which botheconomieshaveacomparativeadvantage,thatis,directcompetition. ❑Europeremainscompetitive,butChina’sdominanceisbeginningtogrow.Europeretainsadvantagesinselectedchemicals,precisioninstrumentsandotherniches,butChinaisbuildingnewstrengthsinmachineryandtransportequipment,whichaccountforalmost60%ofglobaltradeinintermediategoods.Chinaisshowingaclearlyrisingcomparativeadvantageinmorecomplexproducts–productswhicharedifficulttosubstituteandthereforecreatearisingimportdependencyorsupplyrisk. ❑TheportionofEUexportsexposedtoChinesecompetitionisrising.Overthelast30years,theportionoftotalgoodsexportsdirectlyexposedtoChinesecompetitionhasmorethantripledtonearly8%.IncludingproductswhereChina’scomparativeadvantagehasrisen,theexposedportionisover10%oftotalexports. Part1:EUgoodstradewithChina Global (goods) export shares…China’s portion is rising •When China joined the WTO in the early 2000s, its role in the global economy was still limited. China’s share of global GDP wasjustabove 4%—similar toCanada, below the UK, roughly half the EU share and about one-third of the US share. •The first China shockfollowed. Within a decade, China had almost tripled its share of global exports, reaching nearly twice the USshare. At the same time, the share of Euro Area in global exports has constantly declined. •A second China shocknow appears to be taking shape as China’s export share rises again.Europe’s goods trade deficit with Chinahas widened, to EUR 380bn, closer to its highest level recorded after Covid. The external competitiveness of European firms hasdeclined sharply. •In this chart book we take a dive deep into the EU/Ch