能源商品图表书：亚洲需求疲软

Chart Book: Weak Asian demand Weekly update to our energy commodities chart book, withthe latest on prices, positioning, inventories, cracks, flowsand US weather. Amarpreet Singh+1 212 526 1672amarpreet.x.singh@barclays.comBCI, US •Oil prices remain weak, as expectations for a potential finalization of the agreement to endthe dual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continue to build. According to media reports, Iranwill get oil and related sanctions waivers as soon as the deal to end the war is signed.1 •Tanker flow through the Strait of Hormuz slowed somewhat last week, according to Kpler.The seven-day moving average of six crude oil and refined product (including LPG) vesseltransits daily was down from nine-ten daily transits in the prior week. •Excluding Iran, crude oil and refined product exports from the region were down 13 mb/d y/yon a four-week average basis, adjusted for some rerouting of flows through Yanbu andFujairah. •Based on the latest trade data from the GACC, output figures from NBS and inventory andrefined product trade estimates from Kpler, we estimate China's oil demand fell 2.2 mb/d y/yin May and 200 kb/d on average during the first five months of the year (Figure 1). In India,May oil demand was down 180 kb/d y/y and grew 265 kb/d y/y on average during the first fivemonths (Figure 2). •Net managed money positioning in Brent and WTI combined stood at the 25th percentile lastweek on a look back to 2014 (Figure 5). The one-month 25-delta normalized put-call skew inBrent futures turned positive today for the first time since 7 January. •We maintain our $100/b price forecast for Brent in 2026 and expect it to average $88/b in2027, compared with the forwards-implied average of $86/b and $76/b for 2026 and 2027,respectively, at the time of writing. We also maintain our long ICE gasoil crackrecommendation (last $32.85/b, initiated at $33.4/b) and long December 2026 minusDecember 2027 calendar spread on Brent futures (last $3.65/b; initiated at $4.67/b). Key price, positioning, inventory, flows, and weather indicators Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Barclays | Energy Commodities Analyst(s) Certification(s):I, Amarpreet Singh, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Important Disclosures: Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflectsthe local time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT. Availability of Disclosures: For current important disclosures regarding any issuers which are the subject of this research report please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that Barclays may have a conflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesregularly trades, generally deals as principal and generally provides liquidity (as market maker or otherwise) in the debt securities that are thesubject of this research report (and related derivatives thereof). Barclays trading desks may have either a long and / or short position in such securities,other financial instruments and / or derivatives, which may pose a conflict with the interests of investing customers. Where permitted and subject toappropriate information barrier restrictions, Barclays fixed income research analysts regularly interact with its trading desk personnel regardingcurrent market conditions and prices. Barclays fixed income research analysts receive compensation based on various factors including, but notlimited to, the quality of their work, the overall performance of the firm (including the profitability of the Investment Banking Department), theprofitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of the firm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset classcovered by the analyst. To the extent that any historical pricing information was obtained from Barclays trading desks, the firm makes norepresentation that it is accurate or complete. All levels, prices and spreads are historical and do not necessarily represent current market levels, pricesor spreads, some or all of which may have changed since the pub